Audience expansion is a methodology developed by ad-serving platforms to help advertisers find the best-matched audiences for their ads without looking into audience specifics. The rationale is that if you advertise to people who are similar to ones who already like the product or service you want to sell, chances are the conversion rate will be high. By leveraging this methodology advertisers can effortlessly reach their ideal leads by simply uploading a list of reference individuals, also known as a seed audience, to the platform. Then, the platform expands this seed to an audience of the desired size, typically resulting in a significant reduction in customer acquisition costs compared to other targeting strategies. From a machine learning perspective, a sound strategy for expanding a seed audience is by framing the problem as a binary classification task [Qu et al., 2014, Shen et al., 2015, Liu et al., 2016, Ma et al., 2016b,a]. Essentially, this involves creating a two-class labeled training set, consisting of seed users and non-seed users, and then training a probabilistic classifier, e.g., Logistic Regression [Jiang et al., 2019], to distinguish between the two classes. But instead of generating class predictions, the goal is to estimate the conditional probability that a given user belongs to the positive class. This probability is used to prioritize users for the expanded audience.

Probabilistic dependency graphs (PDGs) are a flexible class of probabilistic graphical models, subsuming Bayesian Networks and Factor Graphs. They can also capture inconsistent beliefs, and provide a way of measuring the degree of this inconsistency. We present the first tractable inference algorithm for PDGs with discrete variables, making the asymptotic complexity of PDG inference similar that of the graphical models they generalize. The key components are: (1) the observation that, in many cases, the distribution a PDG specifies can be formulated as a convex optimization problem (with exponential cone constraints), (2) a construction that allows us to express these problems compactly for PDGs of boundeed treewidth, (3) contributions to the theory of PDGs that justify the construction, and (4) an appeal to interior point methods that can solve such problems in polynomial time. We verify the correctness and complexity of our approach, and provide an implementation of it. We then evaluate our implementation, and demonstrate that it outperforms baseline approaches. Our code is available at http://github.com/orichardson/pdg-infer-uai.

In this paper, we address the limitations of the common data annotation and training methods for objective single-label classification tasks. Typically, when annotating such tasks annotators are only asked to provide a single label for each sample and annotator disagreement is discarded when a final hard label is decided through majority voting. We challenge this traditional approach, acknowledging that determining the appropriate label can be difficult due to the ambiguity and lack of context in the data samples. Rather than discarding the information from such ambiguous annotations, our soft label method makes use of them for training. Our findings indicate that additional annotator information, such as confidence, secondary label and disagreement, can be used to effectively generate soft labels. Training classifiers with these soft labels then leads to improved performance and calibration on the hard label test set.

For a language model (LM) to faithfully model human language, it must compress vast, potentially infinite information into relatively few dimensions. We propose analyzing compression in (pre-trained) LMs from two points of view: geometric and information-theoretic. We demonstrate that the two views are highly correlated, such that the intrinsic geometric dimension of linguistic data predicts their coding length under the LM. We then show that, in turn, high compression of a linguistic dataset predicts rapid adaptation to that dataset, confirming that being able to compress linguistic information is an important part of successful LM performance. As a practical byproduct of our analysis, we evaluate a battery of intrinsic dimension estimators for the first time on linguistic data, showing that only some encapsulate the relationship between information-theoretic compression, geometric compression, and ease-of-adaptation.

Bayesian model reduction provides an efficient approach for comparing the performance of all nested sub-models of a model, without re-evaluating any of these sub-models. Until now, Bayesian model reduction has been applied mainly in the computational neuroscience community on simple models. In this paper, we formulate and apply Bayesian model reduction to perform principled pruning of Bayesian neural networks, based on variational free energy minimization. Direct application of Bayesian model reduction, however, gives rise to approximation errors. Therefore, a novel iterative pruning algorithm is presented to alleviate the problems arising with naive Bayesian model reduction, as supported experimentally on the publicly available UCI datasets for different inference algorithms. This novel parameter pruning scheme solves the shortcomings of current state-of-the-art pruning methods that are used by the signal processing community. The proposed approach has a clear stopping criterion and minimizes the same objective that is used during training. Next to these benefits, our experiments indicate better model performance in comparison to state-of-the-art pruning schemes.

We introduce a reinforcement learning framework for economic design where the interaction between the environment designer and the participants is modeled as a Stackelberg game. In this game, the designer (leader) sets up the rules of the economic system, while the participants (followers) respond strategically. We integrate algorithms for determining followers' response strategies into the leader's learning environment, providing a formulation of the leader's learning problem as a POMDP that we call the Stackelberg POMDP. We prove that the optimal leader's strategy in the Stackelberg game is the optimal policy in our Stackelberg POMDP under a limited set of possible policies, establishing a connection between solving POMDPs and Stackelberg games. We solve our POMDP under a limited set of policy options via the centralized training with decentralized execution framework. For the specific case of followers that are modeled as no-regret learners, we solve an array of increasingly complex settings, including problems of indirect mechanism design where there is turn-taking and limited communication by agents. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our training framework through ablation studies. We also give convergence results for no-regret learners to a Bayesian version of a coarse-correlated equilibrium, extending known results to the case of correlated types.

Policy gradient methods have become one of the most popular classes of algorithms for multi-agent reinforcement learning. A key challenge, however, that is not addressed by many of these methods is multi-agent credit assignment: assessing an agent's contribution to the overall performance, which is crucial for learning good policies. We propose a novel algorithm called Dr.Reinforce that explicitly tackles this by combining difference rewards with policy gradients to allow for learning decentralized policies when the reward function is known. By differencing the reward function directly, Dr.Reinforce avoids difficulties associated with learning the Q-function as done by Counterfactual Multiagent Policy Gradients (COMA), a state-of-the-art difference rewards method. For applications where the reward function is unknown, we show the effectiveness of a version of Dr.Reinforce that learns an additional reward network that is used to estimate the difference rewards.

We present a framework for the efficient computation of optimal Bayesian decisions under intractable likelihoods, by learning a surrogate model for the expected utility (or its distribution) as a function of the action and data spaces. We leverage recent advances in simulation-based inference and Bayesian optimization to develop active learning schemes to choose where in parameter and action spaces to simulate. This allows us to learn the optimal action in as few simulations as possible. The resulting framework is extremely simulation efficient, typically requiring fewer model calls than the associated posterior inference task alone, and a factor of $100-1000$ more efficient than Monte-Carlo based methods. Our framework opens up new capabilities for performing Bayesian decision making, particularly in the previously challenging regime where likelihoods are intractable, and simulations expensive.

Over the past decade, deep neural networks have demonstrated significant success using the training scheme that involves mini-batch stochastic gradient descent on extensive datasets. Expanding upon this accomplishment, there has been a surge in research exploring the application of neural networks in other learning scenarios. One notable framework that has garnered significant attention is meta-learning. Often described as "learning to learn," meta-learning is a data-driven approach to optimize the learning algorithm. Other branches of interest are continual learning and online learning, both of which involve incrementally updating a model with streaming data. While these frameworks were initially developed independently, recent works have started investigating their combinations, proposing novel problem settings and learning algorithms. However, due to the elevated complexity and lack of unified terminology, discerning differences between the learning frameworks can be challenging even for experienced researchers. To facilitate a clear understanding, this paper provides a comprehensive survey that organizes various problem settings using consistent terminology and formal descriptions. By offering an overview of these learning paradigms, our work aims to foster further advancements in this promising area of research.

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex multimodal and correlated posteriors in high-dimensional spaces. Our approach introduces novel bounds for approximate inference using implicit distributions by locally linearising the neural sampler. This is distinct from existing methods that rely on additional discriminator networks and unstable adversarial objectives. Furthermore, we present a new sampler architecture that, for the first time, enables implicit distributions over tens of millions of latent variables, addressing computational concerns by using differentiable numerical approximations. We empirically show that our method is capable of recovering correlations across layers in large Bayesian neural networks, a property that is crucial for a network's performance but notoriously challenging to achieve. To the best of our knowledge, no other method has been shown to accomplish this task for such large models. Through experiments in downstream tasks, we demonstrate that our expressive posteriors outperform state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, validating the effectiveness of our training algorithm and the quality of the learned implicit approximation.