Knowledge tracing (KT) plays a crucial role in computer-aided education and intelligent tutoring systems, aiming to assess students' knowledge proficiency by predicting their future performance on new questions based on their past response records. While existing deep learning knowledge tracing (DLKT) methods have significantly improved prediction accuracy and achieved state-of-the-art results, they often suffer from a lack of interpretability. To address this limitation, current approaches have explored incorporating psychological influences to achieve more explainable predictions, but they tend to overlook the potential influences of historical responses. In fact, understanding how models make predictions based on response influences can enhance the transparency and trustworthiness of the knowledge tracing process, presenting an opportunity for a new paradigm of interpretable KT. However, measuring unobservable response influences is challenging. In this paper, we resort to counterfactual reasoning that intervenes in each response to answer \textit{what if a student had answered a question incorrectly that he/she actually answered correctly, and vice versa}. Based on this, we propose RCKT, a novel response influence-based counterfactual knowledge tracing framework. RCKT generates response influences by comparing prediction outcomes from factual sequences and constructed counterfactual sequences after interventions. Additionally, we introduce maximization and inference techniques to leverage accumulated influences from different past responses, further improving the model's performance and credibility. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that our RCKT method outperforms state-of-the-art knowledge tracing methods on four datasets against six baselines, and provides credible interpretations of response influences.

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are simulated by local exploration of complex statistical distributions, and while bypassing the cumbersome requirement of a specific analytical expression for the target, this stochastic exploration of an uncertain parameter space comes at the expense of a large number of samples, and this computational complexity increases with parameter dimensionality. Although at the exploration level, some methods are proposed to accelerate the convergence of the algorithm, such as tempering, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Rao-redwellization, and scalable methods for better performance, it cannot avoid the stochastic nature of this exploration. We consider the target distribution as a mapping where the infinite-dimensional Eulerian space of the parameters consists of a number of deterministic submanifolds and propose a generalized energy metric, termed weighted Riesz energy, where a number of points is generated through pairwise interactions, to discretize rectifiable submanifolds. We study the properties of the point, called Riesz particle, and embed it into sequential MCMC, and we find that there will be higher acceptance rates with fewer evaluations, we validate it through experimental comparative analysis from a linear Gaussian state-space model with synthetic data and a non-linear stochastic volatility model with real-world data.

We consider the problem of learning causal Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) using combinations of observational and interventional experimental data. Current methods tailored to this setting assume that interventions either destroy parent-child relations of the intervened (target) nodes or only alter such relations without modifying the parent sets, even when the intervention targets are unknown. We relax this assumption by proposing a Bayesian method for causal discovery from general interventions, which allow for modifications of the parent sets of the unknown targets. Even in this framework, DAGs and general interventions may be identifiable only up to some equivalence classes. We provide graphical characterizations of such interventional Markov equivalence and devise compatible priors for Bayesian inference that guarantee score equivalence of indistinguishable structures. We then develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to approximate the posterior distribution over DAGs, intervention targets and induced parent sets. Finally, we evaluate the proposed methodology on both simulated and real protein expression data.

Accuracy and interpretability of a (non-life) insurance pricing model are essential qualities to ensure fair and transparent premiums for policy-holders, that reflect their risk. In recent years, the classification and regression trees (CARTs) and their ensembles have gained popularity in the actuarial literature, since they offer good prediction performance and are relatively easily interpretable. In this paper, we introduce Bayesian CART models for insurance pricing, with a particular focus on claims frequency modelling. Additionally to the common Poisson and negative binomial (NB) distributions used for claims frequency, we implement Bayesian CART for the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution to address the difficulty arising from the imbalanced insurance claims data. To this end, we introduce a general MCMC algorithm using data augmentation methods for posterior tree exploration. We also introduce the deviance information criterion (DIC) for the tree model selection. The proposed models are able to identify trees which can better classify the policy-holders into risk groups. Some simulations and real insurance data will be discussed to illustrate the applicability of these models.

Many approaches for optimizing decision making systems rely on gradient based methods requiring informative feedback from the environment. However, in the case where such feedback is sparse or uninformative, such approaches may result in poor performance. Derivative-free approaches such as Bayesian Optimization mitigate the dependency on the quality of gradient feedback, but are known to scale poorly in the high-dimension setting of complex decision making systems. This problem is exacerbated if the system requires interactions between several actors cooperating to accomplish a shared goal. To address the dimensionality challenge, we propose a compact multi-layered architecture modeling the dynamics of actor interactions through the concept of role. We introduce Hessian-aware Bayesian Optimization to efficiently optimize the multi-layered architecture parameterized by a large number of parameters, and give the first improved regret bound in additive high-dimensional Bayesian Optimization since Mutny & Krause (2018). Our approach shows strong empirical results under malformed or sparse reward.

Foundation models (FMs), or large models pretrained on massive data then adapted for downstream tasks, have emerged as an effective paradigm in modern machine learning. The backbone of these FMs are often sequence models, operating on arbitrary sequences of inputs from a wide variety of domains such as language, images, speech, audio, time series, and genomics (Brown et al. 2020; Dosovitskiy et al. 2020; Ismail Fawaz et al. 2019; Oord et al. 2016; Poli et al. 2023; Sutskever, Vinyals, and Quoc V Le 2014). While this concept is agnostic to a particular choice of model architecture, modern FMs are predominantly based on a single type of sequence model: the Transformer (Vaswani et al. 2017) and its core attention layer (Bahdanau, Cho, and Bengio 2015) The efficacy of self-attention is attributed to its ability to route information densely within a context window, allowing it to model complex data. However, this property brings fundamental drawbacks: an inability to model anything outside of a finite window, and quadratic scaling with respect to the window length. An enormous body of research has appeared on more efficient variants of attention to overcome these drawbacks (Tay, Dehghani, Bahri, et al. 2022), but often at the expense of the very properties that makes it effective. As of yet, none of these variants have been shown to be empirically effective at scale across domains. Recently, structured state space sequence models (SSMs) (Gu, Goel, and Ré 2022; Gu, Johnson, Goel, et al. 2021) have emerged as a promising class of architectures for sequence modeling. These models can be interpreted as a combination of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), with inspiration from classical state space models (Kalman 1960). This class of models can be computed very efficiently as either a recurrence or convolution, with linear or near-linear scaling in sequence length.

This paper delves into the problem of safe reinforcement learning (RL) in a partially observable environment with the aim of achieving safe-reachability objectives. In traditional partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP), ensuring safety typically involves estimating the belief in latent states. However, accurately estimating an optimal Bayesian filter in POMDP to infer latent states from observations in a continuous state space poses a significant challenge, largely due to the intractable likelihood. To tackle this issue, we propose a stochastic model-based approach that guarantees RL safety almost surely in the face of unknown system dynamics and partial observation environments. We leveraged the Predictive State Representation (PSR) and Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) to represent future multi-step observations analytically, and the results in this context are provable. Furthermore, we derived essential operators from the kernel Bayes' rule, enabling the recursive estimation of future observations using various operators. Under the assumption of \textit{undercompleness}, a polynomial sample complexity is established for the RL algorithm for the infinite size of observation and action spaces, ensuring an $\epsilon-$suboptimal safe policy guarantee.

The current paradigm of large-scale pre-training and fine-tuning Transformer large language models has lead to significant improvements across the board in natural language processing. However, such large models are susceptible to overfitting to their training data, and as a result the models perform poorly when the domain changes. Also, due to the model's scale, the cost of fine-tuning the model to the new domain is large. Nonparametric Variational Information Bottleneck (NVIB) has been proposed as a regulariser for training cross-attention in Transformers, potentially addressing the overfitting problem. We extend the NVIB framework to replace all types of attention functions in Transformers, and show that existing pretrained Transformers can be reinterpreted as Nonparametric Variational (NV) models using a proposed identity initialisation. We then show that changing the initialisation introduces a novel, information-theoretic post-training regularisation in the attention mechanism, which improves out-of-domain generalisation without any training. This success supports the hypothesis that pretrained Transformers are implicitly NV Bayesian models.

A prompt is a sequence of symbol or tokens, selected from a vocabulary according to some rule, which is prepended/concatenated to a textual query. A key problem is how to select the sequence of tokens: in this paper we formulate it as a combinatorial optimization problem. The high dimensionality of the token space com-pounded by the length of the prompt sequence requires a very efficient solution. In this paper we propose a Bayesian optimization method, executed in a continuous em-bedding of the combinatorial space. In this paper we focus on hard prompt tuning (HPT) which directly searches for discrete tokens to be added to the text input with-out requiring access to the large language model (LLM) and can be used also when LLM is available only as a black-box. This is critically important if LLMs are made available in the Model as a Service (MaaS) manner as in GPT-4. The current manu-script is focused on the optimization of discrete prompts for classification tasks. The discrete prompts give rise to difficult combinatorial optimization problem which easily become intractable given the dimension of the token space in realistic applications. The optimization method considered in this paper is Bayesian optimization (BO) which has become the dominant approach in black-box optimization for its sample efficiency along with its modular structure and versatility. In this paper we use BoTorch, a library for Bayesian optimization research built on top of pyTorch. Albeit preliminary and obtained using a 'vanilla' version of BO, the experiments on RoB-ERTa on six benchmarks, show a good performance across a variety of tasks and enable an analysis of the tradeoff between size of the search space, accuracy and wall clock time.

Human activity recognition (HAR) is a key challenge in pervasive computing and its solutions have been presented based on various disciplines. Specifically, for HAR in a smart space without privacy and accessibility issues, data streams generated by deployed pervasive sensors are leveraged. In this paper, we focus on a group activity by which a group of users perform a collaborative task without user identification and propose an efficient group activity recognition scheme which extracts causality patterns from pervasive sensor event sequences generated by a group of users to support as good recognition accuracy as the state-of-the-art graphical model. To filter out irrelevant noise events from a given data stream, a set of rules is leveraged to highlight causally related events. Then, a pattern-tree algorithm extracts frequent causal patterns by means of a growing tree structure. Based on the extracted patterns, a weighted sum-based pattern matching algorithm computes the likelihoods of stored group activities to the given test event sequence by means of matched event pattern counts for group activity recognition. We evaluate the proposed scheme using the data collected from our testbed and CASAS datasets where users perform their tasks on a daily basis and validate its effectiveness in a real environment. Experiment results show that the proposed scheme performs higher recognition accuracy and with a small amount of runtime overhead than the existing schemes.