Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that the human decision censors the outcome data: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

Construction waste hauling trucks (CWHTs), as one of the most commonly seen heavy-duty vehicles in major cities around the globe, are usually subject to a series of regulations and spatial-temporal access restrictions because they not only produce significant NOx and PM emissions but also causes on-road fugitive dust. The timely and accurate prediction of CWHTs' destinations and dwell times play a key role in effective environmental management. To address this challenge, we propose a prediction method based on an interpretable activity-based model, input-output hidden Markov model (IOHMM), and validate it on 300 CWHTs in Chengdu, China. Contextual factors are considered in the model to improve its prediction power. Results show that the IOHMM outperforms several baseline models, including Markov chains, linear regression, and long short-term memory. Factors influencing the predictability of CWHTs' transportation activities are also explored using linear regression models. Results suggest the proposed model holds promise in assisting authorities by predicting the upcoming transportation activities of CWHTs and administering intervention in a timely and effective manner.

Recently, artificial intelligence for drug discovery has raised increasing interest in both machine learning and chemistry domains. The fundamental building block for drug discovery is molecule geometry and thus, the molecule's geometrical representation is the main bottleneck to better utilize machine learning techniques for drug discovery. In this work, we propose a pretraining method for molecule joint auto-encoding (MoleculeJAE). MoleculeJAE can learn both the 2D bond (topology) and 3D conformation (geometry) information, and a diffusion process model is applied to mimic the augmented trajectories of such two modalities, based on which, MoleculeJAE will learn the inherent chemical structure in a self-supervised manner. Thus, the pretrained geometrical representation in MoleculeJAE is expected to benefit downstream geometry-related tasks. Empirically, MoleculeJAE proves its effectiveness by reaching state-of-the-art performance on 15 out of 20 tasks by comparing it with 12 competitive baselines.

Multi-agent planning and reinforcement learning can be challenging when agents cannot see the state of the world or communicate with each other due to communication costs, latency, or noise. Partially Observable Stochastic Games (POSGs) provide a mathematical framework for modelling such scenarios. This paper aims to improve the efficiency of planning and reinforcement learning algorithms for POSGs by identifying the underlying structure of optimal state-value functions. The approach involves reformulating the original game from the perspective of a trusted third party who plans on behalf of the agents simultaneously. From this viewpoint, the original POSGs can be viewed as Markov games where states are occupancy states, i.e., posterior probability distributions over the hidden states of the world and the stream of actions and observations that agents have experienced so far. This study mainly proves that the optimal state-value function is a convex function of occupancy states expressed on an appropriate basis in all zero-sum, common-payoff, and Stackelberg POSGs.

We observe the emergence of binary encoding within the latent space of deep-neural-network classifiers. Such binary encoding is induced by introducing a linear penultimate layer, which is equipped during training with a loss function that grows as $\exp(\vec{x}^2)$, where $\vec{x}$ are the coordinates in the latent space. The phenomenon we describe represents a specific instance of a well-documented occurrence known as \textit{neural collapse}, which arises in the terminal phase of training and entails the collapse of latent class means to the vertices of a simplex equiangular tight frame (ETF). We show that binary encoding accelerates convergence toward the simplex ETF and enhances classification accuracy.

We take the first step in studying general sequential decision-making under two adaptivity constraints: rare policy switch and batch learning. First, we provide a general class called the Eluder Condition class, which includes a wide range of reinforcement learning classes. Then, for the rare policy switch constraint, we provide a generic algorithm to achieve a $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\log K) $ switching cost with a $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{K})$ regret on the EC class. For the batch learning constraint, we provide an algorithm that provides a $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{K}+K/B)$ regret with the number of batches $B.$ This paper is the first work considering rare policy switch and batch learning under general function classes, which covers nearly all the models studied in the previous works such as tabular MDP (Bai et al. 2019; Zhang et al. 2020), linear MDP (Wang et al. 2021; Gao et al. 2021), low eluder dimension MDP (Kong et al. 2021; Gao et al. 2021), generalized linear function approximation (Qiao et al. 2023), and also some new classes such as the low $D_\Delta$-type Bellman eluder dimension problem, linear mixture MDP, kernelized nonlinear regulator and undercomplete partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP).

We introduce SwiftSage, a novel agent framework inspired by the dual-process theory of human cognition, designed to excel in action planning for complex interactive reasoning tasks. SwiftSage integrates the strengths of behavior cloning and prompting large language models (LLMs) to enhance task completion performance. The framework comprises two primary modules: the Swift module, representing fast and intuitive thinking, and the Sage module, emulating deliberate thought processes. The Swift module is a small encoder-decoder LM fine-tuned on the oracle agent's action trajectories, while the Sage module employs LLMs such as GPT-4 for subgoal planning and grounding. We develop a heuristic method to harmoniously integrate the two modules, resulting in a more efficient and robust problem-solving process. In 30 tasks from the ScienceWorld benchmark, SwiftSage significantly outperforms other methods such as SayCan, ReAct, and Reflexion, demonstrating its effectiveness in solving complex interactive tasks.

Imitation learning methods seek to learn from an expert either through behavioral cloning (BC) of the policy or inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) of the reward. Such methods enable agents to learn complex tasks from humans that are difficult to capture with hand-designed reward functions. Choosing BC or IRL for imitation depends on the quality and state-action coverage of the demonstrations, as well as additional access to the Markov decision process. Hybrid strategies that combine BC and IRL are not common, as initial policy optimization against inaccurate rewards diminishes the benefit of pretraining the policy with BC. This work derives an imitation method that captures the strengths of both BC and IRL. In the entropy-regularized ('soft') reinforcement learning setting, we show that the behaviour-cloned policy can be used as both a shaped reward and a critic hypothesis space by inverting the regularized policy update. This coherency facilitates fine-tuning cloned policies using the reward estimate and additional interactions with the environment. This approach conveniently achieves imitation learning through initial behaviour cloning, followed by refinement via RL with online or offline data sources. The simplicity of the approach enables graceful scaling to high-dimensional and vision-based tasks, with stable learning and minimal hyperparameter tuning, in contrast to adversarial approaches. For the open-source implementation and simulation results, see https://joemwatson.github.io/csil/.

We discuss probabilistic neural networks with a fixed internal representation as models for machine understanding. Here understanding is intended as mapping data to an already existing representation which encodes an {\em a priori} organisation of the feature space. We derive the internal representation by requiring that it satisfies the principles of maximal relevance and of maximal ignorance about how different features are combined. We show that, when hidden units are binary variables, these two principles identify a unique model -- the Hierarchical Feature Model (HFM) -- which is fully solvable and provides a natural interpretation in terms of features. We argue that learning machines with this architecture enjoy a number of interesting properties, like the continuity of the representation with respect to changes in parameters and data, the possibility to control the level of compression and the ability to support functions that go beyond generalisation. We explore the behaviour of the model with extensive numerical experiments and argue that models where the internal representation is fixed reproduce a learning modality which is qualitatively different from that of traditional models such as Restricted Boltzmann Machines.

Social media networks have become a significant aspect of people's lives, serving as a platform for their ideas, opinions and emotions. Consequently, automated sentiment analysis (SA) is critical for recognising people's feelings in ways that other information sources cannot. The analysis of these feelings revealed various applications, including brand evaluations, YouTube film reviews and healthcare applications. As social media continues to develop, people post a massive amount of information in different forms, including text, photos, audio and video. Thus, traditional SA algorithms have become limited, as they do not consider the expressiveness of other modalities. By including such characteristics from various material sources, these multimodal data streams provide new opportunities for optimising the expected results beyond text-based SA. Our study focuses on the forefront field of multimodal SA, which examines visual and textual data posted on social media networks. Many people are more likely to utilise this information to express themselves on these platforms. To serve as a resource for academics in this rapidly growing field, we introduce a comprehensive overview of textual and visual SA, including data pre-processing, feature extraction techniques, sentiment benchmark datasets, and the efficacy of multiple classification methodologies suited to each field. We also provide a brief introduction of the most frequently utilised data fusion strategies and a summary of existing research on visual-textual SA. Finally, we highlight the most significant challenges and investigate several important sentiment applications.