Generally, Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent updates its policy by repetitively interacting with the environment, contingent on the received rewards to observed states and undertaken actions. However, the environmental disturbance, commonly leading to noisy observations (e.g., rewards and states), could significantly shape the performance of agent. Furthermore, the learning performance of Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) is more susceptible to noise due to the interference among intelligent agents. Therefore, it becomes imperative to revolutionize the design of MARL, so as to capably ameliorate the annoying impact of noisy rewards. In this paper, we propose a novel decomposition-based multi-agent distributional RL method by approximating the globally shared noisy reward by a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and decomposing it into the combination of individual distributional local rewards, with which each agent can be updated locally through distributional RL. Moreover, a diffusion model (DM) is leveraged for reward generation in order to mitigate the issue of costly interaction expenditure for learning distributions. Furthermore, the optimality of the distribution decomposition is theoretically validated, while the design of loss function is carefully calibrated to avoid the decomposition ambiguity. We also verify the effectiveness of the proposed method through extensive simulation experiments with noisy rewards. Besides, different risk-sensitive policies are evaluated in order to demonstrate the superiority of distributional RL in different MARL tasks.

The increasing interest in data sharing makes synthetic data appealing. However, the analysis of synthetic data raises a unique set of methodological challenges. In this work, we highlight the importance of inferential utility and provide empirical evidence against naive inference from synthetic data (that handles these as if they were really observed). We argue that the rate of false-positive findings (type 1 error) will be unacceptably high, even when the estimates are unbiased. One of the reasons is the underestimation of the true standard error, which may even progressively increase with larger sample sizes due to slower convergence. This is especially problematic for deep generative models. Before publishing synthetic data, it is essential to develop statistical inference tools for such data.

In many real-world scenarios, it is crucial to be able to reliably and efficiently reason under uncertainty while capturing complex relationships in data. Probabilistic circuits (PCs), a prominent family of tractable probabilistic models, offer a remedy to this challenge by composing simple, tractable distributions into a high-dimensional probability distribution. However, learning PCs on heterogeneous data is challenging and densities of some parametric distributions are not available in closed form, limiting their potential use. We introduce characteristic circuits (CCs), a family of tractable probabilistic models providing a unified formalization of distributions over heterogeneous data in the spectral domain. The one-to-one relationship between characteristic functions and probability measures enables us to learn high-dimensional distributions on heterogeneous data domains and facilitates efficient probabilistic inference even when no closed-form density function is available. We show that the structure and parameters of CCs can be learned efficiently from the data and find that CCs outperform state-of-the-art density estimators for heterogeneous data domains on common benchmark data sets.

In this paper we introduce GP+, an open-source library for kernel-based learning via Gaussian processes (GPs) which are powerful statistical models that are completely characterized by their parametric covariance and mean functions. GP+ is built on PyTorch and provides a user-friendly and object-oriented tool for probabilistic learning and inference. As we demonstrate with a host of examples, GP+ has a few unique advantages over other GP modeling libraries. We achieve these advantages primarily by integrating nonlinear manifold learning techniques with GPs' covariance and mean functions. As part of introducing GP+, in this paper we also make methodological contributions that (1) enable probabilistic data fusion and inverse parameter estimation, and (2) equip GPs with parsimonious parametric mean functions which span mixed feature spaces that have both categorical and quantitative variables. We demonstrate the impact of these contributions in the context of Bayesian optimization, multi-fidelity modeling, sensitivity analysis, and calibration of computer models.

In domain adaptation, covariate shift and label shift problems are two distinct and complementary tasks. In covariate shift adaptation where the differences in data distribution arise from variations in feature probabilities, existing approaches naturally address this problem based on \textit{feature probability matching} (\textit{FPM}). However, for label shift adaptation where the differences in data distribution stem solely from variations in class probability, current methods still use FPM on the $d$-dimensional feature space to estimate the class probability ratio on the one-dimensional label space. To address label shift adaptation more naturally and effectively, inspired by a new representation of the source domain's class probability, we propose a new framework called \textit{class probability matching} (\textit{CPM}) which matches two class probability functions on the one-dimensional label space to estimate the class probability ratio, fundamentally different from FPM operating on the $d$-dimensional feature space. Furthermore, by incorporating the kernel logistic regression into the CPM framework to estimate the conditional probability, we propose an algorithm called \textit{class probability matching using kernel methods} (\textit{CPMKM}) for label shift adaptation. From the theoretical perspective, we establish the optimal convergence rates of CPMKM with respect to the cross-entropy loss for multi-class label shift adaptation. From the experimental perspective, comparisons on real datasets demonstrate that CPMKM outperforms existing FPM-based and maximum-likelihood-based algorithms.

We propose the Gaussian-Linear Hidden Markov model (GLHMM), a generalisation of different types of HMMs commonly used in neuroscience. In short, the GLHMM is a general framework where linear regression is used to flexibly parameterise the Gaussian state distribution, thereby accommodating a wide range of uses -including unsupervised, encoding and decoding models. GLHMM is implemented as a Python toolbox with an emphasis on statistical testing and out-of-sample prediction -i.e. aimed at finding and characterising brain-behaviour associations. The toolbox uses a stochastic variational inference approach, enabling it to handle large data sets at reasonable computational time. Overall, the approach can be applied to several data modalities, including animal recordings or non-brain data, and applied over a broad range of experimental paradigms. For demonstration, we show examples with fMRI, electrocorticography, magnetoencephalo-graphy and pupillometry.

However, these algorithms simply deem causal relationships stand exclusively at the level of individual variables Data science is moving from the data-centric paradigm forward (micro-variable), ignoring the collective interactions from the science-centric paradigm, and causal revolution multiple variables (macro-variable). For instance, the brain is sweeping across various research fields. Causality learning can be characterized at a micro granularity of neurons and endeavors to unearth causal relationships among variables their synapses, but high-order synergistic subsystems are from observational data and generate causal graph, widespread, which typically sit between canonical functional that is, directed acyclic graph (DAG). Unlike correlationbased networks and may serve an integrative role (Varley study, causality analysis reveals the causal mechanism et al. 2023). Actually, observational data can be regarded of data generation. Identifying causality holds paramount as knowledge in the lowest granularity level, while knowledge significance for stable inference and rational decisions can be regarded as the abstraction of data at different in many applications, such as recommendation systems granularity levels (Wang 2017; Wang et al. 2022). Similar (Wang et al. 2020), medical diagnostics (Richens, Lee, and viewpoints appear in the research of complex systems, Johri 2020), epidemiology (Vandenbroucke, Broadbent, and which suggests that causal relationship is more pronounced Pearce 2016) and many others (Von Kügelgen et al. 2022).

This study addresses the issue of balancing graph summarization and graph change detection. Graph summarization compresses large-scale graphs into a smaller scale. However, the question remains: To what extent should the original graph be compressed? This problem is solved from the perspective of graph change detection, aiming to detect statistically significant changes using a stream of summary graphs. If the compression rate is extremely high, important changes can be ignored, whereas if the compression rate is extremely low, false alarms may increase with more memory. This implies that there is a trade-off between compression rate in graph summarization and accuracy in change detection. We propose a novel quantitative methodology to balance this trade-off to simultaneously realize reliable graph summarization and change detection. We introduce a probabilistic structure of hierarchical latent variable model into a graph, thereby designing a parameterized summary graph on the basis of the minimum description length principle. The parameter specifying the summary graph is then optimized so that the accuracy of change detection is guaranteed to suppress Type I error probability (probability of raising false alarms) to be less than a given confidence level. First, we provide a theoretical framework for connecting graph summarization with change detection. Then, we empirically demonstrate its effectiveness on synthetic and real datasets.

We consider the problem of learning a graph modeling the statistical relations of the $d$ variables from a dataset with $n$ samples $X \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times d}$. Standard approaches amount to searching for a precision matrix $\Theta$ representative of a Gaussian graphical model that adequately explains the data. However, most maximum likelihood-based estimators usually require storing the $d^{2}$ values of the empirical covariance matrix, which can become prohibitive in a high-dimensional setting. In this work, we adopt a compressive viewpoint and aim to estimate a sparse $\Theta$ from a \emph{sketch} of the data, i.e. a low-dimensional vector of size $m \ll d^{2}$ carefully designed from $X$ using non-linear random features. Under certain assumptions on the spectrum of $\Theta$ (or its condition number), we show that it is possible to estimate it from a sketch of size $m=\Omega\left((d+2k)\log(d)\right)$ where $k$ is the maximal number of edges of the underlying graph. These information-theoretic guarantees are inspired by compressed sensing theory and involve restricted isometry properties and instance optimal decoders. We investigate the possibility of achieving practical recovery with an iterative algorithm based on the graphical lasso, viewed as a specific denoiser. We compare our approach and graphical lasso on synthetic datasets, demonstrating its favorable performance even when the dataset is compressed.

Bayesian Experimental Design (BED), which aims to find the optimal experimental conditions for Bayesian inference, is usually posed as to optimize the expected information gain (EIG). The gradient information is often needed for efficient EIG optimization, and as a result the ability to estimate the gradient of EIG is essential for BED problems. The primary goal of this work is to develop methods for estimating the gradient of EIG, which, combined with the stochastic gradient descent algorithms, result in efficient optimization of EIG. Specifically, we first introduce a posterior expected representation of the EIG gradient with respect to the design variables. Based on this, we propose two methods for estimating the EIG gradient, UEEG-MCMC that leverages posterior samples generated through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to estimate the EIG gradient, and BEEG-AP that focuses on achieving high simulation efficiency by repeatedly using parameter samples. Theoretical analysis and numerical studies illustrate that UEEG-MCMC is robust agains the actual EIG value, while BEEG-AP is more efficient when the EIG value to be optimized is small. Moreover, both methods show superior performance compared to several popular benchmarks in our numerical experiments.