Hitting times provide a fundamental measure of distance in random processes, quantifying the expected number of steps for a random walk starting at node u to reach node v. They have broad applications across domains such as network centrality analysis, ranking and recommendation systems, and epidemiology. In this work, we develop local algorithms for estimating hitting times between a pair of vertices u,v without accessing the full graph, overcoming scalability issues of prior global methods. Our first algorithm uses the key insight that hitting time computations can be truncated at the meeting time of two independent random walks from uand v. This leads to an efficient estimator analyzed via the Kronecker product graph and Markov Chain Chernoff bounds. We also present an algorithm extending the work of Peng et al. [2021] that introduces a novel adaptation of the spectral cutoff technique to account for the asymmetry of hitting times. This adaptation captures the directionality of the underlying random walk and requires non-trivial modifications to ensure accuracy and efficiency. In addition to the algorithmic upper bounds, we also provide tight asymptotic lower bounds. We also reveal a connection between hitting time estimation and distribution testing, and validate our algorithms using experiments on both real and synthetic data1.

Dynamic pricing algorithms typically assume continuous price variables, which may not reflect real-world scenarios where prices are often discrete. This paper demonstrates that leveraging discrete price information within a semi-parametric model can substantially improve performance, depending on the size of the support set of the price variable relative to the time horizon. Specifically, we propose a novel semi-parametric contextual dynamic pricing algorithm, namely BayesCoxCP, based on a Bayesian approach to the Cox proportional hazards model. Our theoretical analysis establishes high-probability regret bounds that adapt to the sparsity level γ, proving that our algorithm achieves a regret upper bound of eO(T(1+γ)/2 + dT) for γ < 1/3 and eO(T2/3 + dT) for γ 1/3, where γ represents the sparsity of the price grid relative to the time horizon T. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed algorithm significantly outperforms an existing method, particularly in scenarios with sparse discrete price points.

Estimating the uncertainty of responses from Large Language Models (LLMs) remains a critical challenge. While recent Bayesian methods have demonstrated effectiveness in quantifying uncertainty through low-rank weight updates, they typically require complex fine-tuning or post-training procedures. In this paper, we propose Training-Free Bayesianization (TFB), a simple yet theoretically grounded framework that efficiently transforms trained low-rank adapters into Bayesian ones without additional training. TFBsystematically searches for the maximally acceptable level of variance in the weight posterior, constrained within a family of low-rank isotropic Gaussian distributions. Our theoretical analysis shows that under mild conditions, this search process is equivalent to KL-regularized variational optimization, a generalized form of variational inference. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that TFB achieves superior uncertainty estimation and generalization compared to existing methods while eliminating the need for complex Bayesianization training procedures.

Optimal decision-making under partial observability requires agents to balance reducing uncertainty (exploration) against pursuing immediate objectives (exploitation). In this paper, we introduce a novel policy optimization framework for continuous partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) that explicitly addresses this challenge. Our method casts policy learning as probabilistic inference in a non-Markovian Feynman-Kac model that inherently captures the value of information gathering by anticipating future observations, without requiring suboptimal approximations or handcrafted heuristics. To optimize policies under this model, we develop a nested sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that efficiently estimates a history-dependent policy gradient under samples from the optimal trajectory distribution induced by the POMDP. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm across standard continuous POMDP benchmarks, where existing methods struggle to act under uncertainty.

AlphaZero has achieved remarkable success in complex decision-making problems through self-play and neural network training. However, its self-play process remains inefficient due to limited exploration of high-uncertainty positions, the overlooked runner-up decisions in Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), and high variance in value labels. To address these challenges, we propose and evaluate uncertainty-guided exploration by branching from high-uncertainty positions using our proposed Label Change Rate (LCR) metric, which is further refined by a Bayesian inference framework. Our proposed approach leverages runner-up MCTS decisions to create multiple variations, and ensembles value labels across these variations to reduce variance. We investigate three key design parameters for our branching strategy: where to branch, how many variations to branch, and which move to play in the new branch. Our empirical findings indicate that branching with 10 variations per game provides the best performance-exploration balance. Overall, our end-to-end results show an improved sample efficiency over the baseline by 58.5% on 9x9 Go in the early stage of training and by 47.3% on 19x19 Go in the late stage of training.

Online reinforcement learning (RL) with complex function approximations such as transformers and deep neural networks plays a significant role in the modern practice of artificial intelligence. Despite its popularity and importance, balancing the fundamental trade-off between exploration and exploitation remains a longstanding challenge; in particular, we are still in lack of efficient and practical schemes that are backed by theoretical performance guarantees. Motivated by recent developments in exploration via optimistic regularization, this paper provides an interpretation of the principle of optimism through the lens of primal-dual optimization. From this fresh perspective, we set forth a new value-incentivized actor-critic (VAC) method, which optimizes a single easy-to-optimize objective integrating exploration and exploitation -- it promotes state-action and policy estimates that are both consistent with collected data transitions and result in higher value functions. Theoretically, the proposed VAC method has near-optimal regret guarantees under linear Markov decision processes (MDPs) in both finite-horizon and infinite-horizon settings, which can be extended to the general function approximation setting under appropriate assumptions.

Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associated benchmarks are tailored to deterministic, low-dimensional and weakly nonlinear time-series data. To address these limitations, we present CausalDynamics, a large-scale benchmark and extensible data generation framework to advance the structural discovery of dynamical causal models. Our benchmark consists of true causal graphs derived from thousands of both linearly and nonlinearly coupled ordinary and stochastic differential equations as well as two idealized climate models. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms for graph reconstruction on systems with noisy, confounded, and lagged dynamics. CausalDynamics consists of a plug-and-play, build-yourown coupling workflow that enables the construction of a hierarchy of physical systems. We anticipate that our framework will facilitate the development of robust causal discovery algorithms that are broadly applicable across domains while addressing their unique challenges. We provide a user-friendly implementation and documentation on https://kausable.github.io/CausalDynamics.

Generative models that maximize model likelihood have gained traction in many practical settings. Among them, perturbation-based approaches underpin many state-of-the-art likelihood estimation models, yet they often face slow convergence and limited theoretical understanding. In this paper, we derive a tighter likelihood bound for noise-driven models to improve both the accuracy and efficiency of maximum likelihood learning. Our key insight extends the classical Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence-Fisher information relationship to arbitrary noise perturbations, going beyond the Gaussian assumption and enabling structured noise distributions. This formulation allows flexible use of randomized noise distributions that naturally account for sensor artifacts, quantization effects, and data distribution smoothing, while remaining compatible with standard diffusion training. Treating the diffusion process as a Gaussian channel, we further express the mismatched entropy between data and model, showing that the proposed objective upper-bounds the negative log-likelihood (NLL). In experiments, our models achieve competitive NLL on CIFAR-10 and state-of-the-art results on ImageNet across multiple resolutions, all without data augmentation, and the framework extends naturally to discrete data.

Robust policy evaluation for non-rectangular uncertainty set is generally NP-hard, even in approximation. Consequently, existing approaches suffer from either exponential iteration complexity or significant accuracy gaps. Interestingly, we identify a powerful class of Lp-bounded uncertainty sets that avoid these complexity barriers due to their structural simplicity. We further show that this class can be decomposed into infinitely many sa-rectangular Lp-bounded sets and leverage its structural properties to derive a novel dual formulation for Lp robust Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). This formulation reveals key insights into the adversary's strategy and leads to the first polynomial-time robust policy evaluation algorithm for L1-normed non-rectangular robust MDPs.

Expanding on neural operators, we propose a novel framework for stochastic process learning across arbitrary domains. In particular, we develop operator flow matching (OFM) for learning stochastic process priors on function spaces. OFM provides the probability density of the values of any collection of points and enables mathematically tractable functional regression at new points with mean and density estimation. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art models in stochastic process learning, functional regression, and prior learning.