Generative models have gained popularity for their potential applications in imaging science, such as image reconstruction, posterior sampling and data sharing. Flow-based generative models are particularly attractive due to their ability to tractably provide exact density estimates along with fast, inexpensive and diverse samples. Training such models, however, requires a large, high quality dataset of objects. In applications such as computed imaging, it is often difficult to acquire such data due to requirements such as long acquisition time or high radiation dose, while acquiring noisy or partially observed measurements of these objects is more feasible. In this work, we propose AmbientFlow, a framework for learning flow-based generative models directly from noisy and incomplete data. Using variational Bayesian methods, a novel framework for establishing flow-based generative models from noisy, incomplete data is proposed. Extensive numerical studies demonstrate the effectiveness of AmbientFlow in learning the object distribution. The utility of AmbientFlow in a downstream inference task of image reconstruction is demonstrated.

Optimizing static risk-averse objectives in Markov decision processes is difficult because they do not admit standard dynamic programming equations common in Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms. Dynamic programming decompositions that augment the state space with discrete risk levels have recently gained popularity in the RL community. Prior work has shown that these decompositions are optimal when the risk level is discretized sufficiently. However, we show that these popular decompositions for Conditional-Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and Entropic-Value-at-Risk (EVaR) are inherently suboptimal regardless of the discretization level. In particular, we show that a saddle point property assumed to hold in prior literature may be violated. However, a decomposition does hold for Value-at-Risk and our proof demonstrates how this risk measure differs from CVaR and EVaR. Our findings are significant because risk-averse algorithms are used in high-stakes environments, making their correctness much more critical.

This paper presents the "Uncertainty-aware Mixture of Experts" (uMoE), a novel approach designed to address aleatoric uncertainty in the training of predictive models based on Neural Networks (NNs). While existing methods primarily focus on managing uncertainty during infer-ence, uMoE integrates uncertainty directly into the train-ing process. The uMoE approach adopts a "Divide and Conquer" paradigm to partition the uncertain input space into more manageable subspaces. It consists of Expert components, each trained solely on the portion of input uncertainty corresponding to their subspace. On top of the Experts, a Gating Unit, guided by additional infor-mation about the distribution of uncertain inputs across these subspaces, learns to weight the Experts to minimize deviations from the ground truth. Our results highlight that uMoE significantly outperforms baseline methods in handling data uncertainty. Furthermore, we conducted a robustness analysis, illustrating its capability to adapt to varying levels of uncertainty and suggesting optimal threshold parameters. This innovative approach holds wide applicability across diverse data-driven domains, in-cluding biomedical signal processing, autonomous driv-ing, and production quality control.

Modern reinforcement learning (RL) can be categorized into online and offline variants. As a pivotal aspect of both online and offline RL, current research on the Bellman equation revolves primarily around optimization techniques and performance enhancement rather than exploring the inherent structural properties of the Bellman error, such as its distribution characteristics. This study investigates the distribution of the Bellman approximation error through iterative exploration of the Bellman equation with the observation that the Bellman error approximately follows the Logistic distribution. Based on this, we proposed the utilization of the Logistic maximum likelihood function (LLoss) as an alternative to the commonly used mean squared error (MSELoss) that assumes a Normal distribution for Bellman errors. We validated the hypotheses through extensive numerical experiments across diverse online and offline environments. In particular, we applied the Logistic correction to loss functions in various RL baseline methods and observed that the results with LLoss consistently outperformed the MSE counterparts. We also conducted the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests to confirm the reliability of the Logistic distribution. Moreover, our theory connects the Bellman error to the proportional reward scaling phenomenon by providing a distribution-based analysis. Furthermore, we applied the bias-variance decomposition for sampling from the Logistic distribution. The theoretical and empirical insights of this study lay a valuable foundation for future investigations and enhancements centered on the distribution of Bellman error.

Robust Markov decision processes (MDPs) are used for applications of dynamic optimization in uncertain environments and have been studied extensively. Many of the main properties and algorithms of MDPs, such as value iteration and policy iteration, extend directly to RMDPs. Surprisingly, there is no known analog of the MDP convex optimization formulation for solving RMDPs. This work describes the first convex optimization formulation of RMDPs under the classical sa-rectangularity and s-rectangularity assumptions. By using entropic regularization and exponential change of variables, we derive a convex formulation with a number of variables and constraints polynomial in the number of states and actions, but with large coefficients in the constraints. We further simplify the formulation for RMDPs with polyhedral, ellipsoidal, or entropy-based uncertainty sets, showing that, in these cases, RMDPs can be reformulated as conic programs based on exponential cones, quadratic cones, and non-negative orthants. Our work opens a new research direction for RMDPs and can serve as a first step toward obtaining a tractable convex formulation of RMDPs.

We study experiment design for unique identification of the causal graph of a simple SCM, where the graph may contain cycles. The presence of cycles in the structure introduces major challenges for experiment design as, unlike acyclic graphs, learning the skeleton of causal graphs with cycles may not be possible from merely the observational distribution. Furthermore, intervening on a variable in such graphs does not necessarily lead to orienting all the edges incident to it. In this paper, we propose an experiment design approach that can learn both cyclic and acyclic graphs and hence, unifies the task of experiment design for both types of graphs. We provide a lower bound on the number of experiments required to guarantee the unique identification of the causal graph in the worst case, showing that the proposed approach is order-optimal in terms of the number of experiments up to an additive logarithmic term. Moreover, we extend our result to the setting where the size of each experiment is bounded by a constant. For this case, we show that our approach is optimal in terms of the size of the largest experiment required for uniquely identifying the causal graph in the worst case.

This article provides an analytical framework for how to simulate human-like thought processes within a computer. It describes how attention and memory should be structured, updated, and utilized to search for associative additions to the stream of thought. The focus is on replicating the dynamics of the mammalian working memory system, which features two forms of persistent activity: sustained firing (preserving information on the order of seconds) and synaptic potentiation (preserving information from minutes to hours). The article uses a series of over 40 original figures to systematically demonstrate how the iterative updating of these working memory stores provides functional structure to behavior, cognition, and consciousness. In an AI implementation, these two memory stores should be updated continuously and in an iterative fashion, meaning each state should preserve a proportion of the coactive representations from the state before it. Thus, the set of concepts in working memory will evolve gradually and incrementally over time. This makes each state a revised iteration of the preceding state and causes successive states to overlap and blend with respect to the information they contain. Transitions between states happen as persistent activity spreads activation energy throughout the hierarchical network searching long-term memory for the most appropriate representation to be added to the global workspace. The result is a chain of associatively linked intermediate states capable of advancing toward a solution or goal. Iterative updating is conceptualized here as an information processing strategy, a model of working memory, a theory of consciousness, and an algorithm for designing and programming artificial general intelligence.

Proper scoring rules evaluate the quality of probabilistic predictions, playing an essential role in the pursuit of accurate and well-calibrated models. Every proper score decomposes into two fundamental components -- proper calibration error and refinement -- utilizing a Bregman divergence. While uncertainty calibration has gained significant attention, current literature lacks a general estimator for these quantities with known statistical properties. To address this gap, we propose a method that allows consistent, and asymptotically unbiased estimation of all proper calibration errors and refinement terms. In particular, we introduce Kullback--Leibler calibration error, induced by the commonly used cross-entropy loss. As part of our results, we prove the relation between refinement and f-divergences, which implies information monotonicity in neural networks, regardless of which proper scoring rule is optimized. Our experiments validate empirically the claimed properties of the proposed estimator and suggest that the selection of a post-hoc calibration method should be determined by the particular calibration error of interest.

We present a novel deep learning method for estimating time-dependent parameters in Markov processes through discrete sampling. Departing from conventional machine learning, our approach reframes parameter approximation as an optimization problem using the maximum likelihood approach. Experimental validation focuses on parameter estimation in multivariate regression and stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Theoretical results show that the real solution is close to SDE with parameters approximated using our neural network-derived under specific conditions. Our work contributes to SDE-based model parameter estimation, offering a versatile tool for diverse fields.

In the standard formulation of the denoising problem, one is given a probabilistic model relating a latent variable $\Theta \in \Omega \subset \mathbb{R}^m \; (m\ge 1)$ and an observation $Z \in \mathbb{R}^d$ according to: $Z \mid \Theta \sim p(\cdot\mid \Theta)$ and $\Theta \sim G^*$, and the goal is to construct a map to recover the latent variable from the observation. The posterior mean, a natural candidate for estimating $\Theta$ from $Z$, attains the minimum Bayes risk (under the squared error loss) but at the expense of over-shrinking the $Z$, and in general may fail to capture the geometric features of the prior distribution $G^*$ (e.g., low dimensionality, discreteness, sparsity, etc.). To rectify these drawbacks, in this paper we take a new perspective on this denoising problem that is inspired by optimal transport (OT) theory and use it to propose a new OT-based denoiser at the population level setting. We rigorously prove that, under general assumptions on the model, our OT-based denoiser is well-defined and unique, and is closely connected to solutions to a Monge OT problem. We then prove that, under appropriate identifiability assumptions on the model, our OT-based denoiser can be recovered solely from information of the marginal distribution of $Z$ and the posterior mean of the model, after solving a linear relaxation problem over a suitable space of couplings that is reminiscent of a standard multimarginal OT (MOT) problem. In particular, thanks to Tweedie's formula, when the likelihood model $\{ p(\cdot \mid \theta) \}_{\theta \in \Omega}$ is an exponential family of distributions, the OT-based denoiser can be recovered solely from the marginal distribution of $Z$. In general, our family of OT-like relaxations is of interest in its own right and for the denoising problem suggests alternative numerical methods inspired by the rich literature on computational OT.