Risk mitigation techniques are critical to avoiding accidents associated with driving behaviour. We provide a novel Multi-Class Driver Distraction Risk Assessment (MDDRA) model that considers the vehicle, driver, and environmental data during a journey. MDDRA categorises the driver on a risk matrix as safe, careless, or dangerous. It offers flexibility in adjusting the parameters and weights to consider each event on a specific severity level. We collect real-world data using the Field Operation Test (TeleFOT), covering drivers using the same routes in the East Midlands, United Kingdom (UK). The results show that reducing road accidents caused by driver distraction is possible. We also study the correlation between distraction (driver, vehicle, and environment) and the classification severity based on a continuous distraction severity score. Furthermore, we apply machine learning techniques to classify and predict driver distraction according to severity levels to aid the transition of control from the driver to the vehicle (vehicle takeover) when a situation is deemed risky. The Ensemble Bagged Trees algorithm performed best, with an accuracy of 96.2%.

We study automated intrusion detection in an IT infrastructure, specifically the problem of identifying the start of an attack, the type of attack, and the sequence of actions an attacker takes, based on continuous measurements from the infrastructure. We apply statistical learning methods, including Hidden Markov Model (HMM), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Random Forest Classifier (RFC) to map sequences of observations to sequences of predicted attack actions. In contrast to most related research, we have abundant data to train the models and evaluate their predictive power. The data comes from traces we generate on an in-house testbed where we run attacks against an emulated IT infrastructure. Central to our work is a machine-learning pipeline that maps measurements from a high-dimensional observation space to a space of low dimensionality or to a small set of observation symbols. Investigating intrusions in offline as well as online scenarios, we find that both HMM and LSTM can be effective in predicting attack start time, attack type, and attack actions. If sufficient training data is available, LSTM achieves higher prediction accuracy than HMM. HMM, on the other hand, requires less computational resources and less training data for effective prediction. Also, we find that the methods we study benefit from data produced by traditional intrusion detection systems like SNORT.

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) is well-suited for runtime decision-making in optimizing the performance of systems where multiple agents coexist and compete for shared resources. However, applying common deep learning-based MARL solutions to real-world problems suffers from issues of interpretability, sample efficiency, partial observability, etc. To address these challenges, we present an event-driven formulation, where decision-making is handled by distributed co-operative MARL agents using neuro-symbolic methods. The recently introduced neuro-symbolic Logical Neural Networks (LNN) framework serves as a function approximator for the RL, to train a rules-based policy that is both logical and interpretable by construction. To enable decision-making under uncertainty and partial observability, we developed a novel probabilistic neuro-symbolic framework, Probabilistic Logical Neural Networks (PLNN), which combines the capabilities of logical reasoning with probabilistic graphical models. In PLNN, the upward/downward inference strategy, inherited from LNN, is coupled with belief bounds by setting the activation function for the logical operator associated with each neural network node to a probability-respecting generalization of the Fr\'echet inequalities. These PLNN nodes form the unifying element that combines probabilistic logic and Bayes Nets, permitting inference for variables with unobserved states. We demonstrate our contributions by addressing key MARL challenges for power sharing in a system-on-chip application.

The typical phases of Bayesian network (BN) structured development include specification of purpose and scope, structure development, parameterisation and validation. Structure development is typically focused on qualitative issues and parameterisation quantitative issues, however there are qualitative and quantitative issues that arise in both phases. A common step that occurs after the initial structure has been developed is to perform a rough parameterisation that only captures and illustrates the intended qualitative behaviour of the model. This is done prior to a more rigorous parameterisation, ensuring that the structure is fit for purpose, as well as supporting later development and validation. In our collective experience and in discussions with other modellers, this step is an important part of the development process, but is under-reported in the literature. Since the practice focuses on qualitative issues, despite being quantitative in nature, we call this step qualitative parameterisation and provide an outline of its role in the BN development process.

Non-cooperative and cooperative games with a very large number of players have many applications but remain generally intractable when the number of players increases. Introduced by Lasry and Lions, and Huang, Caines and Malham\'e, Mean Field Games (MFGs) rely on a mean-field approximation to allow the number of players to grow to infinity. Traditional methods for solving these games generally rely on solving partial or stochastic differential equations with a full knowledge of the model. Recently, Reinforcement Learning (RL) has appeared promising to solve complex problems at scale. The combination of RL and MFGs is promising to solve games at a very large scale both in terms of population size and environment complexity. In this survey, we review the quickly growing recent literature on RL methods to learn equilibria and social optima in MFGs. We first identify the most common settings (static, stationary, and evolutive) of MFGs. We then present a general framework for classical iterative methods (based on best-response computation or policy evaluation) to solve MFGs in an exact way. Building on these algorithms and the connection with Markov Decision Processes, we explain how RL can be used to learn MFG solutions in a model-free way. Last, we present numerical illustrations on a benchmark problem, and conclude with some perspectives.

Functional linear discriminant analysis (FLDA) is a powerful tool that extends LDA-mediated multiclass classification and dimension reduction to univariate time-series functions. However, in the age of large multivariate and incomplete data, statistical dependencies between features must be estimated in a computationally tractable way, while also dealing with missing data. There is a need for a computationally tractable approach that considers the statistical dependencies between features and can handle missing values. We here develop a multivariate version of FLDA (MUDRA) to tackle this issue and describe an efficient expectation/conditional-maximization (ECM) algorithm to infer its parameters. We assess its predictive power on the "Articulary Word Recognition" data set and show its improvement over the state-of-the-art, especially in the case of missing data. MUDRA allows interpretable classification of data sets with large proportions of missing data, which will be particularly useful for medical or psychological data sets.

Trustworthy ML systems should not only return accurate predictions, but also a reliable representation of their uncertainty. Bayesian methods are commonly used to quantify both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, but alternative approaches, such as evidential deep learning methods, have become popular in recent years. The latter group of methods in essence extends empirical risk minimization (ERM) for predicting second-order probability distributions over outcomes, from which measures of epistemic (and aleatoric) uncertainty can be extracted. This paper presents novel theoretical insights of evidential deep learning, highlighting the difficulties in optimizing second-order loss functions and interpreting the resulting epistemic uncertainty measures. With a systematic setup that covers a wide range of approaches for classification, regression and counts, it provides novel insights into issues of identifiability and convergence in second-order loss minimization, and the relative (rather than absolute) nature of epistemic uncertainty measures.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently gained popularity due to their ability to quantify model uncertainty. However, specifying a prior for BNNs that captures relevant domain knowledge is often extremely challenging. In this work, we propose a framework for integrating general forms of domain knowledge (i.e., any knowledge that can be represented by a loss function) into a BNN prior through variational inference, while enabling computationally efficient posterior inference and sampling. Specifically, our approach results in a prior over neural network weights that assigns high probability mass to models that better align with our domain knowledge, leading to posterior samples that also exhibit this behavior. We show that BNNs using our proposed domain knowledge priors outperform those with standard priors (e.g., isotropic Gaussian, Gaussian process), successfully incorporating diverse types of prior information such as fairness, physics rules, and healthcare knowledge and achieving better predictive performance. We also present techniques for transferring the learned priors across different model architectures, demonstrating their broad utility across various settings.

Covariate adjustment is a ubiquitous method used to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data. Assuming a known graphical structure of the data generating model, recent results give graphical criteria for optimal adjustment, which enables efficient estimation of the ATE. However, graphical approaches are challenging for high-dimensional and complex data, and it is not straightforward to specify a meaningful graphical model of non-Euclidean data such as texts. We propose an general framework that accommodates adjustment for any subset of information expressed by the covariates. We generalize prior works and leverage these results to identify the optimal covariate information for efficient adjustment. This information is minimally sufficient for prediction of the outcome conditionally on treatment. Based on our theoretical results, we propose the Debiased Outcome-adapted Propensity Estimator (DOPE) for efficient estimation of the ATE, and we provide asymptotic results for the DOPE under general conditions. Compared to the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator, the DOPE can retain its efficiency even when the covariates are highly predictive of treatment. We illustrate this with a single-index model, and with an implementation of the DOPE based on neural networks, we demonstrate its performance on simulated and real data. Our results show that the DOPE provides an efficient and robust methodology for ATE estimation in various observational settings.

Pre-trained language models (LMs) are capable of in-context learning (ICL): they can adapt to a task with only a few examples given in the prompt without any parameter update. However, it is unclear where this capability comes from as there is a stark distribution shift between pre-training text and ICL prompts. In this work, we study what patterns of the pre-training data contribute to ICL. We find that LMs' ICL ability depends on $\textit{parallel structures}$ in the pre-training data -- pairs of phrases following similar templates in the same context window. Specifically, we detect parallel structures by checking whether training on one phrase improves prediction of the other, and conduct ablation experiments to study their effect on ICL. We show that removing parallel structures in the pre-training data reduces LMs' ICL accuracy by 51% (vs 2% from random ablation). This drop persists even when excluding common patterns such as n-gram repetitions and long-range dependency, showing the diversity and generality of parallel structures. A closer look at the detected parallel structures indicates that they cover diverse linguistic tasks and span long distances in the data.