We show that the usual score function for conditional Markov networks can be written as the expectation over the scores of their spanning trees. We also show that a small random sample of these output trees can attain a significant fraction of the margin obtained by the complete graph and we provide conditions under which we can perform tractable inference. The experimental results confirm that practical learning is scalable to realistic datasets using this approach.

We develop a sampling technique for Hierarchical Dirichlet process models. The parallel algorithm builds upon [1] by proposing large split and merge moves based on learned sub-clusters. The additional global split and merge moves drastically improve convergence in the experimental results. Furthermore, we discover that cross-validation techniques do not adequately determine convergence, and that previous sampling methods converge slower than were previously expected.

State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse Gaussian processes. The result of learning is a tractable posterior over nonlinear dynamical systems. In comparison to conventional parametric models, we offer the possibility to straightforwardly trade off model capacity and computational cost whilst avoiding overfitting. Our main algorithm uses a hybrid inference approach combining variational Bayes and sequential Monte Carlo.

We consider the problem of learning to optimize an unknown Markov decision process (MDP). We show that, if the MDP can be parameterized within some known function class, we can obtain regret bounds that scale with the dimensionality, rather than cardinality, of the system.

Video summarization is a challenging problem with great application potential. Whereas prior approaches, largely unsupervised in nature, focus on sampling useful frames and assembling them as summaries, we consider video summarization as a supervised subset selection problem. Our idea is to teach the system to learn from human-created summaries how to select informative and diverse subsets, so as to best meet evaluation metrics derived from human-perceived quality. To this end, we propose the sequential determinantal point process (seqDPP), a probabilistic model for diverse sequential subset selection. Our novel seqDPP heeds the inherent sequential structures in video data, thus overcoming the deficiency of the standard DPP, which treats video frames as randomly permutable items. Meanwhile, seqDPP retains the power of modeling diverse subsets, essential for summarization. Our extensive results of summarizing videos from 3 datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our method, compared to not only existing unsupervised methods but also naive applications of the standard DPP model.

Any reinforcement learning algorithm that applies to all Markov decision processes (MDPs) will su er (Ô SAT) regret on some MDP, where T is the elapsed time and S and A are the cardinalities of the state and action spaces. This implies T = (SA) time to guarantee a near-optimal policy. In many settings of practical interest, due to the curse of dimensionality, S and A can be so enormous that this learning time is unacceptable. We establish that, if the system is known to be a factored MDP, it is possible to achieve regret that scales polynomially in the number of parameters encoding the factored MDP, which may be exponentially smaller than S or A. We provide two algorithms that satisfy near-optimal regret bounds in this context: posterior sampling reinforcement learning (PSRL) and an upper confidence bound algorithm (UCRL-Factored).

Applying convolutional neural networks to large images is computationally expensive because the amount of computation scales linearly with the number of image pixels. We present a novel recurrent neural network model that is capable of extracting information from an image or video by adaptively selecting a sequence of regions or locations and only processing the selected regions at high resolution. Like convolutional neural networks, the proposed model has a degree of translation invariance built-in, but the amount of computation it performs can be controlled independently of the input image size. While the model is non-differentiable, it can be trained using reinforcement learning methods to learn task-specific policies. We evaluate our model on several image classification tasks, where it significantly outperforms a convolutional neural network baseline on cluttered images, and on a dynamic visual control problem, where it learns to track a simple object without an explicit training signal for doing so.

We study the sensitivity of a MAP configuration of a discrete probabilistic graphical model with respect to perturbations of its parameters. These perturbations are global, in the sense that simultaneous perturbations of all the parameters (or any chosen subset of them) are allowed. Our main contribution is an exact algorithm that can check whether the MAP configuration is robust with respect to given perturbations. Its complexity is essentially the same as that of obtaining the MAP configuration itself, so it can be promptly used with minimal effort. We use our algorithm to identify the largest global perturbation that does not induce a change in the MAP configuration, and we successfully apply this robustness measure in two practical scenarios: the prediction of facial action units with posed images and the classification of multiple real public data sets. A strong correlation between the proposed robustness measure and accuracy is verified in both scenarios.

In this paper, we address the question of identifiability and learning algorithms for large-scale Poisson Directed Acyclic Graphical (DAG) models. We define general Poisson DAG models as models where each node is a Poisson random variable with rate parameter depending on the values of the parents in the underlying DAG. First, we prove that Poisson DAG models are identifiable from observational data, and present a polynomial-time algorithm that learns the Poisson DAG model under suitable regularity conditions. The main idea behind our algorithm is based on overdispersion, in that variables that are conditionally Poisson are overdispersed relative to variables that are marginally Poisson.

In simple perceptual decisions the brain has to identify a stimulus based on noisy sensory samples from the stimulus. Basic statistical considerations state that the reliability of the stimulus information, i.e., the amount of noise in the samples, should be taken into account when the decision is made. However, for perceptual decision making experiments it has been questioned whether the brain indeed uses the reliability for making decisions when confronted with unpredictable changes in stimulus reliability. We here show that even the basic drift diffusion model, which has frequently been used to explain experimental findings in perceptual decision making, implicitly relies on estimates of stimulus reliability. We then show that only those variants of the drift diffusion model which allow stimulusspecific reliabilities are consistent with neurophysiological findings. Our analysis suggests that the brain estimates the reliability of the stimulus on a short time scale of at most a few hundred milliseconds.