Accurate and detailed models of neurodegenerative disease progression are crucially important for reliable early diagnosis and the determination of effective treatments. We introduce the ALPACA (Alzheimer's disease Probabilistic Cascades) model, a generative model linking latent Alzheimer's progression dynamics to observable biomarker data. In contrast with previous works which model disease progression as a fixed event ordering, we explicitly model the variability over such orderings among patients which is more realistic, particularly for highly detailed progression models. We describe efficient learning algorithms for ALPACA and discuss promising experimental results on a real cohort of Alzheimer's patients from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative.

This paper addresses the problem of online planning in Markov decision processes using a randomized simulator, under a budget constraint. We propose a new algorithm which is based on the construction of a forest of planning trees, where each tree corresponds to a random realization of the stochastic environment. The trees are constructed using a "safe" optimistic planning strategy combining the optimistic principle (in order to explore the most promising part of the search space first) with a safety principle (which guarantees a certain amount of uniform exploration). In the decision-making step of the algorithm, the individual trees are aggregated and an immediate action is recommended. We provide a finite-sample analysis and discuss the trade-off between the principles of optimism and safety. We also report numerical results on a benchmark problem. Our algorithm performs as well as state-of-the-art optimistic planning algorithms, and better than a related algorithm which additionally assumes the knowledge of all transition distributions.

Overview: The authors propose the Gibbs error criterion for active learning; seeking the samples that maximize the expected Gibbs error under the current posterior. They propose a greedy algorithm that maximises this criterion (Max-GEC). The objective reduces to maximising a specific instance of the Tsallis entropy of the predictive distribution which is very similar to Maximum Entropy Sampling (MES) which uses the Shannon entropy of the predictive distribution. They consider the non-adaptive, adaptive and batch settings separately, and in each setting they prove using submodularity results that the greedy approach achieves near-maximal performance compared to optimal policy. They show how to implement their fully adaptive policy (approximately) in CRFs with application to named entity recognition, and implement the batch algorithm with a Naive Bayes classifier, with application to a text classification task.

We introduce a new objective function for pool-based Bayesian active learning with probabilistic hypotheses. This objective function, called the policy Gibbs error, is the expected error rate of a random classifier drawn from the prior distribution on the examples adaptively selected by the active learning policy. Exact maximization of the policy Gibbs error is hard, so we propose a greedy strategy that maximizes the Gibbs error at each iteration, where the Gibbs error on an instance is the expected error of a random classifier selected from the posterior label distribution on that instance. We apply this maximum Gibbs error criterion to three active learning scenarios: non-adaptive, adaptive, and batch active learning. In each scenario, we prove that the criterion achieves near-maximal policy Gibbs error when constrained to a fixed budget. For practical implementations, we provide approximations to the maximum Gibbs error criterion for Bayesian conditional random fields and transductive Naive Bayes. Our experimental results on a named entity recognition task and a text classification task show that the maximum Gibbs error criterion is an effective active learning criterion for noisy models.

Many powerful Monte Carlo techniques for estimating partition functions, such as annealed importance sampling (AIS), are based on sampling from a sequence of intermediate distributions which interpolate between a tractable initial distribution and the intractable target distribution. The near-universal practice is to use geometric averages of the initial and target distributions, but alternative paths can perform substantially better. We present a novel sequence of intermediate distributions for exponential families defined by averaging the moments of the initial and target distributions. We analyze the asymptotic performance of both the geometric and moment averages paths and derive an asymptotically optimal piecewise linear schedule. AIS with moment averaging performs well empirically at estimating partition functions of restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs), which form the building blocks of many deep learning models.

The idea of computer vision as the Bayesian inverse problem to computer graphics has a long history and an appealing elegance, but it has proved difficult to directly implement. Instead, most vision tasks are approached via complex bottom-up processing pipelines. Here we show that it is possible to write short, simple probabilistic graphics programs that define flexible generative models and to automatically invert them to interpret real-world images. Generative probabilistic graphics programs (GPGP) consist of a stochastic scene generator, a renderer based on graphics software, a stochastic likelihood model linking the renderer's output and the data, and latent variables that adjust the fidelity of the renderer and the tolerance of the likelihood. Representations and algorithms from computer graphics are used as the deterministic backbone for highly approximate and stochastic generative models. This formulation combines probabilistic programming, computer graphics, and approximate Bayesian computation, and depends only on generalpurpose, automatic inference techniques. We describe two applications: reading sequences of degraded and adversarially obscured characters, and inferring 3D road models from vehicle-mounted camera images. Each of the probabilistic graphics programs we present relies on under 20 lines of probabilistic code, and yields accurate, approximately Bayesian inferences about real-world images.

Shannon's entropy is a basic quantity in information theory, and a fundamental building block for the analysis of neural codes. Estimating the entropy of a discrete distribution from samples is an important and difficult problem that has received considerable attention in statistics and theoretical neuroscience. However, neural responses have characteristic statistical structure that generic entropy estimators fail to exploit. For example, existing Bayesian entropy estimators make the naive assumption that all spike words are equally likely a priori, which makes for an inefficient allocation of prior probability mass in cases where spikes are sparse. Here we develop Bayesian estimators for the entropy of binary spike trains using priors designed to flexibly exploit the statistical structure of simultaneouslyrecorded spike responses.

We propose an approximate inference algorithm for continuous time Gaussian Markov process models with both discrete and continuous time likelihoods. We show that the continuous time limit of the expectation propagation algorithm exists and results in a hybrid fixed point iteration consisting of (1) expectation propagation updates for discrete time terms and (2) variational updates for the continuous time term. We introduce postinference corrections methods that improve on the marginals of the approximation. This approach extends the classical Kalman-Bucy smoothing procedure to non-Gaussian observations, enabling continuous-time inference in a variety of models, including spiking neuronal models (state-space models with point process observations) and box likelihood models. Experimental results on real and simulated data demonstrate high distributional accuracy and significant computational savings compared to discrete-time approaches in a neural application.

Exact lifted inference methods, like their propositional counterparts, work by recursively decomposing the model and the problem. In the propositional case, there exist formal structures, such as decomposition trees (dtrees), that represent such a decomposition and allow us to determine the complexity of inference a priori. However, there is currently no equivalent structure nor analogous complexity results for lifted inference. In this paper, we introduce FO-dtrees, which upgrade propositional dtrees to the first-order level. We show how these trees can characterize a lifted inference solution for a probabilistic logical model (in terms of a sequence of lifted operations), and make a theoretical analysis of the complexity of lifted inference in terms of the novel notion of lifted width for the tree.

We are currently facing unprecedented cyber warfare with the rapid evolution of tactics, increasing asymmetry of intelligence, and the growing accessibility of hacking tools. In this landscape, cyber deception emerges as a critical component of our defense strategy against increasingly sophisticated attacks. This chapter aims to highlight the pivotal role of game-theoretic models and foundation models (FMs) in analyzing, designing, and implementing cyber deception tactics. Game models (GMs) serve as a foundational framework for modeling diverse adversarial interactions, allowing us to encapsulate both adversarial knowledge and domain-specific insights. Meanwhile, FMs serve as the building blocks for creating tailored machine learning models suited to given applications. By leveraging the synergy between GMs and FMs, we can advance proactive and automated cyber defense mechanisms by not only securing our networks against attacks but also enhancing their resilience against well-planned operations. This chapter discusses the games at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels of warfare, delves into the symbiotic relationship between these methodologies, and explores relevant applications where such a framework can make a substantial impact in cybersecurity. The chapter discusses the promising direction of the multi-agent neurosymbolic conjectural learning (MANSCOL), which allows the defender to predict adversarial behaviors, design adaptive defensive deception tactics, and synthesize knowledge for the operational level synthesis and adaptation. FMs serve as pivotal tools across various functions for MANSCOL, including reinforcement learning, knowledge assimilation, formation of conjectures, and contextual representation. This chapter concludes with a discussion of the challenges associated with FMs and their application in the domain of cybersecurity.