Learning Graphical Models
Neurally Plausible Reinforcement Learning of Working Memory Tasks
A key function of brains is undoubtedly the abstraction and maintenance of information from the environment for later use. Neurons in association cortex play an important role in this process: by learning these neurons become tuned to relevant features and represent the information that is required later as a persistent elevation of their activity [1]. It is however not well known how such neurons acquire these task-relevant working memories. Here we introduce a biologically plausible learning scheme grounded in Reinforcement Learning (RL) theory [2] that explains how neurons become selective for relevant information by trial and error learning. The model has memory units which learn useful internal state representations to solve working memory tasks by transforming partially observable Markov decision problems (POMDP) into MDPs.
Volume Regularization for Binary Classification
We introduce a large-volume box classification for binary prediction, which maintains a subset of weight vectors, and specifically axis-aligned boxes. Our learning algorithm seeks for a box of large volume that contains "simple" weight vectors which most of are accurate on the training set. Two versions of the learning process are cast as convex optimization problems, and it is shown how to solve them efficiently. The formulation yields a natural PAC-Bayesian performance bound and it is shown to minimize a quantity directly aligned with it. The algorithm outperforms SVM and the recently proposed AROW algorithm on a majority of 30 NLP datasets and binarized USPS optical character recognition datasets.
Bayesian active learning with localized priors for fast receptive field characterization
Active learning methods can dramatically improve the yield of neurophysiology experiments by adaptively selecting stimuli to probe a neuron's receptive field (RF). Bayesian active learning methods specify a posterior distribution over the RF given the data collected so far in the experiment, and select a stimulus on each time step that maximally reduces posterior uncertainty. However, existing methods tend to employ simple Gaussian priors over the RF and do not exploit uncertainty at the level of hyperparameters. Incorporating this uncertainty can substantially speed up active learning, particularly when RFs are smooth, sparse, or local in space and time. Here we describe a novel framework for active learning under hierarchical, conditionally Gaussian priors. Our algorithm uses sequential Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling ("particle filtering" with MCMC) to construct a mixture-of-Gaussians representation of the RF posterior, and selects optimal stimuli using an approximate infomax criterion. The core elements of this algorithm are parallelizable, making it computationally efficient for real-time experiments. We apply our algorithm to simulated and real neural data, and show that it can provide highly accurate receptive field estimates from very limited data, even with a small number of hyperparameter samples.
Putting Bayes to sleep
We consider sequential prediction algorithms that are given the predictions from a set of models as inputs. If the nature of the data is changing over time in that different models predict well on different segments of the data, then adaptivity is typically achieved by mixing into the weights in each round a bit of the initial prior (kind of like a weak restart). However, what if the favored models in each segment are from a small subset, i.e. the data is likely to be predicted well by models that predicted well before? Curiously, fitting such "sparse composite models" is achieved by mixing in a bit of all the past posteriors. This self-referential updating method is rather peculiar, but it is efficient and gives superior performance on many natural data sets. Also it is important because it introduces a long-term memory: any model that has done well in the past can be recovered quickly. While Bayesian interpretations can be found for mixing in a bit of the initial prior, no Bayesian interpretation is known for mixing in past posteriors. We build atop the "specialist" framework from the online learning literature to give the Mixing Past Posteriors update a proper Bayesian foundation. We apply our method to a well-studied multitask learning problem and obtain a new intriguing efficient update that achieves a significantly better bound.
Bayesian Nonparametric Modeling of Suicide Attempts
The National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NE-SARC) database contains a large amount of information, regarding the way of life, medical conditions, etc., of a representative sample of the U.S. population. In this paper, we are interested in seeking the hidden causes behind the suicide attempts, for which we propose to model the subjects using a nonparametric latent model based on the Indian Buffet Process (IBP). Due to the nature of the data, we need to adapt the observation model for discrete random variables. We propose a generative model in which the observations are drawn from a multinomial-logit distribution given the IBP matrix. The implementation of an efficient Gibbs sampler is accomplished using the Laplace approximation, which allows integrating out the weighting factors of the multinomial-logit likelihood model. Finally, the experiments over the NESARC database show that our model properly captures some of the hidden causes that model suicide attempts.
Nonparanormal Belief Propagation (NPNBP)
The empirical success of the belief propagation approximate inference algorithm has inspired numerous theoretical and algorithmic advances. Yet, for continuous non-Gaussian domains performing belief propagation remains a challenging task: recent innovations such as nonparametric or kernel belief propagation, while useful, come with a substantial computational cost and offer little theoretical guarantees, even for tree structured models.
Modelling Reciprocating Relationships with Hawkes Processes
We present a Bayesian nonparametric model that discovers implicit social structure from interaction time-series data. Social groups are often formed implicitly, through actions among members of groups. Yet many models of social networks use explicitly declared relationships to infer social structure. We consider a particular class of Hawkes processes, a doubly stochastic point process, that is able to model reciprocity between groups of individuals. We then extend the Infinite Relational Model by using these reciprocating Hawkes processes to parameterise its edges, making events associated with edges co-dependent through time. Our model outperforms general, unstructured Hawkes processes as well as structured Poisson process-based models at predicting verbal and email turn-taking, and military conflicts among nations.
Transferring Expectations in Model-based Reinforcement Learning
We study how to automatically select and adapt multiple abstractions or representations of the world to support model-based reinforcement learning. We address the challenges of transfer learning in heterogeneous environments with varying tasks. We present an efficient, online framework that, through a sequence of tasks, learns a set of relevant representations to be used in future tasks. Without predefined mapping strategies, we introduce a general approach to support transfer learning across different state spaces. We demonstrate the potential impact of our system through improved jumpstart and faster convergence to near optimum policy in two benchmark domains.
Small-Variance Asymptotics for Exponential Family Dirichlet Process Mixture Models
Sampling and variational inference techniques are two standard methods for inference in probabilistic models, but for many problems, neither approach scales effectively to large-scale data. An alternative is to relax the probabilistic model into a non-probabilistic formulation which has a scalable associated algorithm. This can often be fulfilled by performing small-variance asymptotics, i.e., letting the variance of particular distributions in the model go to zero. For instance, in the context of clustering, such an approach yields connections between the k-means and EM algorithms. In this paper, we explore small-variance asymptotics for exponential family Dirichlet process (DP) and hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) mixture models. Utilizing connections between exponential family distributions and Bregman divergences, we derive novel clustering algorithms from the asymptotic limit of the DP and HDP mixtures that features the scalability of existing hard clustering methods as well as the flexibility of Bayesian nonparametric models. We focus on special cases of our analysis for discrete-data problems, including topic modeling, and we demonstrate the utility of our results by applying variants of our algorithms to problems arising in vision and document analysis.
2 Partial Models from a finite set A and the environment (stochastically) emits an observation o
This paper introduces timeline trees, which are partial models of partially observable environments. Timeline trees are given some specific predictions to make and learn a decision tree over history. The main idea of timeline trees is to use temporally abstract features to identify and split on features of key events, spread arbitrarily far apart in the past (whereas previous decision-tree-based methods have been limited to a finite suffix of history). Experiments demonstrate that timeline trees can learn to make high quality predictions in complex, partially observable environments with high-dimensional observations (e.g. an arcade game).