Skill discovery algorithms in reinforcement learning typically identify single states or regions in state space that correspond to task-specific subgoals. However, such methods do not directly address the question of how many distinct skills are appropriate for solving the tasks that the agent faces. This can be highly inefficient when many identified subgoals correspond to the same underlying skill, but are all used individually as skill goals. Furthermore, skills created in this manner are often only transferable to tasks that share identical state spaces, since corresponding subgoals across tasks are not merged into a single skill goal. We show that these problems can be overcome by clustering subgoal data defined in an agent-space and using the resulting clusters as templates for skill termination conditions. Clustering via a Dirichlet process mixture model is used to discover a minimal, sufficient collection of portable skills.

Focusing on short term trend prediction in a financial context, we consider the problem of selective prediction whereby the predictor can abstain from prediction in order to improve performance. We examine two types of selective mechanisms for HMM predictors. The first is a rejection in the spirit of Chow's well-known ambiguity principle. The second is a specialized mechanism for HMMs that identifies low quality HMM states and abstain from prediction in those states. We call this model selective HMM (sHMM). In both approaches we can trade-off prediction coverage to gain better accuracy in a controlled manner. We compare performance of the ambiguity-based rejection technique with that of the sHMM approach. Our results indicate that both methods are effective, and that the sHMM model is superior.

Latent tree graphical models are natural tools for expressing long range and hierarchical dependencies among many variables which are common in computer vision, bioinformatics and natural language processing problems. However, existing models are largely restricted to discrete and Gaussian variables due to computational constraints; furthermore, algorithms for estimating the latent tree structure and learning the model parameters are largely restricted to heuristic local search. We present a method based on kernel embeddings of distributions for latent tree graphical models with continuous and non-Gaussian variables. Our method can recover the latent tree structures with provable guarantees and perform local-minimum free parameter learning and efficient inference. Experiments on simulated and real data show the advantage of our proposed approach.

Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has proven to be a powerful, generic planning technique for decision-making in single-agent and adversarial environments. The stochastic nature of the Monte-Carlo simulations introduces errors in the value estimates, both in terms of bias and variance. Whilst reducing bias (typically through the addition of domain knowledge) has been studied in the MCTS literature, comparatively little effort has focused on reducing variance. This is somewhat surprising, since variance reduction techniques are a well-studied area in classical statistics. In this paper, we examine the application of some standard techniques for variance reduction in MCTS, including common random numbers, antithetic variates and control variates. We demonstrate how these techniques can be applied to MCTS and explore their efficacy on three different stochastic, single-agent settings: Pig, Can't Stop and Dominion.

We study a particular class of cyclic causal models, where each variable is a (possibly nonlinear) function of its parents and additive noise. We prove that the causal graph of such models is generically identifiable in the bivariate, Gaussian-noise case. We also propose a method to learn such models from observational data. In the acyclic case, the method reduces to ordinary regression, but in the more challenging cyclic case, an additional term arises in the loss function, which makes it a special case of nonlinear independent component analysis. We illustrate the proposed method on synthetic data.

We present a type of Temporal Restricted Boltzmann Machine that defines a probability distribution over an output sequence conditional on an input sequence. It shares the desirable properties of RBMs: efficient exact inference, an exponentially more expressive latent state than HMMs, and the ability to model nonlinear structure and dynamics. We apply our model to a challenging real-world graphics problem: facial expression transfer. Our results demonstrate improved performance over several baselines modeling high-dimensional 2D and 3D data.

Loopy belief propagation performs approximate inference on graphical models with loops. One might hope to compensate for the approximation by adjusting model parameters. Learning algorithms for this purpose have been explored previously, and the claim has been made that every set of locally consistent marginals can arise from belief propagation run on a graphical model. On the contrary, here we show that many probability distributions have marginals that cannot be reached by belief propagation using any set of model parameters or any learning algorithm.

Determining interactions between entities and the overall organization and clustering of nodes in networks is a major challenge when analyzing biological and social network data. Here we extend the Indian Buffet Process (IBP), a nonparametric Bayesian model, to integrate noisy interaction scores with properties of individual entities for inferring interaction networks and clustering nodes within these networks. We present an application of this method to study how microR-NAs regulate mRNAs in cells. Analysis of synthetic and real data indicates that the method improves upon prior methods, correctly recovers interactions and clusters, and provides accurate biological predictions.

We introduce the Piecewise-Constant Conditional Intensity Model, a model for learning temporal dependencies in event streams. We describe a closed-form Bayesian approach to learning these models, and describe an importance sampling algorithm for forecasting future events using these models, using a proposal distribution based on Poisson superposition. We then use synthetic data, supercomputer event logs, and web search query logs to illustrate that our learning algorithm can efficiently learn nonlinear temporal dependencies, and that our importance sampling algorithm can effectively forecast future events.

We present an asymptotic analysis of Viterbi Training (VT) and contrast it with a more conventional Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach to parameter estimation in Hidden Markov Models. While ML estimator works by (locally) maximizing the likelihood of the observed data, VT seeks to maximize the probability of the most likely hidden state sequence. We develop an analytical framework based on a generating function formalism and illustrate it on an exactly solvable model of HMM with one unambiguous symbol. For this particular model the ML objective function is continuously degenerate. VT objective, in contrast, is shown to have only finite degeneracy.