Count data naturally arise in many fields, such as finance, neuroscience, and epidemiology, and discovering causal structure among count data is a crucial task in various scientific and industrial scenarios. One of the most common characteristics of count data is the inherent branching structure described by a binomial thinning operator and an independent Poisson distribution that captures both branching and noise. For instance, in a population count scenario, mortality and immigration contribute to the count, where survival follows a Bernoulli distribution, and immigration follows a Poisson distribution. However, causal discovery from such data is challenging due to the non-identifiability issue: a single causal pair is Markov equivalent, i.e., $X\rightarrow Y$ and $Y\rightarrow X$ are distributed equivalent. Fortunately, in this work, we found that the causal order from $X$ to its child $Y$ is identifiable if $X$ is a root vertex and has at least two directed paths to $Y$, or the ancestor of $X$ with the most directed path to $X$ has a directed path to $Y$ without passing $X$. Specifically, we propose a Poisson Branching Structure Causal Model (PB-SCM) and perform a path analysis on PB-SCM using high-order cumulants. Theoretical results establish the connection between the path and cumulant and demonstrate that the path information can be obtained from the cumulant. With the path information, causal order is identifiable under some graphical conditions. A practical algorithm for learning causal structure under PB-SCM is proposed and the experiments demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

In order to adhere to regulatory standards governing individual data privacy and safety, machine learning models must systematically eliminate information derived from specific subsets of a user's training data that can no longer be utilized. The emerging discipline of Machine Unlearning has arisen as a pivotal area of research, facilitating the process of selectively discarding information designated to specific sets or classes of data from a pre-trained model, thereby eliminating the necessity for extensive retraining from scratch. The principal aim of this study is to formulate a methodology tailored for the purposeful elimination of information linked to a specific class of data from a pre-trained classification network. This intentional removal is crafted to degrade the model's performance specifically concerning the unlearned data class while concurrently minimizing any detrimental impacts on the model's performance in other classes. To achieve this goal, we frame the class unlearning problem from a Bayesian perspective, which yields a loss function that minimizes the log-likelihood associated with the unlearned data with a stability regularization in parameter space. This stability regularization incorporates Mohalanobis distance with respect to the Fisher Information matrix and $l_2$ distance from the pre-trained model parameters. Our novel approach, termed \textbf{Partially-Blinded Unlearning (PBU)}, surpasses existing state-of-the-art class unlearning methods, demonstrating superior effectiveness. Notably, PBU achieves this efficacy without requiring awareness of the entire training dataset but only to the unlearned data points, marking a distinctive feature of its performance.

The importance of considering contextual probabilities in shaping response patterns within psychological testing is underscored, despite the ubiquitous nature of order effects discussed extensively in methodological literature. Drawing from concepts such as path-dependency, first-order autocorrelation, state-dependency, and hysteresis, the present study is an attempt to address how earlier responses serve as an anchor for subsequent answers in tests, surveys, and questionnaires. Introducing the notion of non-commuting observables derived from quantum physics, I highlight their role in characterizing psychological processes and the impact of measurement instruments on participants' responses. We advocate for the utilization of first-order Markov chain modeling to capture and forecast sequential dependencies in survey and test responses. The employment of the first-order Markov chain model lies in individuals' propensity to exhibit partial focus to preceding responses, with recent items most likely exerting a substantial influence on subsequent response selection. This study contributes to advancing our understanding of the dynamics inherent in sequential data within psychological research and provides a methodological framework for conducting longitudinal analyses of response patterns of test and questionnaire.

For the past few years, the Consumer Internet of Things (CIoT) has entered public lives. While CIoT has improved the convenience of people's daily lives, it has also brought new security and privacy concerns. In this survey, we try to figure out what researchers can learn about the security and privacy of CIoT by traffic analysis, a popular method in the security community. From the security and privacy perspective, this survey seeks out the new characteristics in CIoT traffic analysis, the state-of-the-art progress in CIoT traffic analysis, and the challenges yet to be solved. We collected 310 papers from January 2018 to December 2023 related to CIoT traffic analysis from the security and privacy perspective and summarized the process of CIoT traffic analysis in which the new characteristics of CIoT are identified. Then, we detail existing works based on five application goals: device fingerprinting, user activity inference, malicious traffic analysis, security analysis, and measurement. At last, we discuss the new challenges and future research directions.

For effective human-agent teaming, robots and other artificial intelligence (AI) agents must infer their human partner's abilities and behavioral response patterns and adapt accordingly. Most prior works make the unrealistic assumption that one or more teammates can act near-optimally. In real-world collaboration, humans and autonomous agents can be suboptimal, especially when each only has partial domain knowledge. In this work, we develop computational modeling and optimization techniques for enhancing the performance of suboptimal human-agent teams, where the human and the agent have asymmetric capabilities and act suboptimally due to incomplete environmental knowledge. We adopt an online Bayesian approach that enables a robot to infer people's willingness to comply with its assistance in a sequential decision-making game. Our user studies show that user preferences and team performance indeed vary with robot intervention styles, and our approach for mixed-initiative collaborations enhances objective team performance ($p<.001$) and subjective measures, such as user's trust ($p<.001$) and perceived likeability of the robot ($p<.001$).

The advent of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has significantly advanced the field of robotics, particularly in the control and coordination of quadruped robots. However, the complexity of real-world tasks often necessitates the deployment of multi-robot systems capable of sophisticated interaction and collaboration. To address this need, we introduce the Multi-agent Quadruped Environment (MQE), a novel platform designed to facilitate the development and evaluation of multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) algorithms in realistic and dynamic scenarios. MQE emphasizes complex interactions between robots and objects, hierarchical policy structures, and challenging evaluation scenarios that reflect real-world applications. We present a series of collaborative and competitive tasks within MQE, ranging from simple coordination to complex adversarial interactions, and benchmark state-of-the-art MARL algorithms. Our findings indicate that hierarchical reinforcement learning can simplify task learning, but also highlight the need for advanced algorithms capable of handling the intricate dynamics of multi-agent interactions. MQE serves as a stepping stone towards bridging the gap between simulation and practical deployment, offering a rich environment for future research in multi-agent systems and robot learning. For open-sourced code and more details of MQE, please refer to https://ziyanx02.github.io/multiagent-quadruped-environment/ .

Uncertainty quantification of neural networks is critical to measuring the reliability and robustness of deep learning systems. However, this often involves costly or inaccurate sampling methods and approximations. This paper presents a sample-free moment propagation technique that propagates mean vectors and covariance matrices across a network to accurately characterize the input-output distributions of neural networks. A key enabler of our technique is an analytic solution for the covariance of random variables passed through nonlinear activation functions, such as Heaviside, ReLU, and GELU. The wide applicability and merits of the proposed technique are shown in experiments analyzing the input-output distributions of trained neural networks and training Bayesian neural networks.

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are widely used to capture causal relationships among components of complex systems (Spirtes et al., 2001; Pearl, 2009; Maathuis et al., 2018). They also form a foundation for causal discovery and inference (Pearl, 2009). Probabilistic graphical models defined on DAGs, known as Bayesian networks (Pearl, 2009), have thus found broad applications in various scientific disciplines, from biology (Markowetz and Spang, 2007; Zhang et al., 2013) and social sciences (Gupta and Kim, 2008), to knowledge representation and machine learning (Heckerman, 1997). However, learning the structure of DAGs from observational data is very challenging due to at least two major factors: First, it may not be possible to infer the direction of edges from observational data alone. In fact, unless the model is identifiable (see, e.g., Peters et al., 2014a), observational data only reveal the structure of the Markov equivalent class of DAGs (Maathuis et al., 2018), captured by a complete partially directed acyclic graph (CPDAG) (Andersson et al., 1997). The second reason is computational--learning DAGs from observational data is an NPcomplete problem (Chickering, 1996). In fact, while a few polynomial time algorithms have been proposed for special cases, including sparse graphs (Kalisch and Bühlmann, 2007) or identifiable models (Chen et al., 2019; Ghoshal and Honorio, 2018; Peters et al., 2014b; Wang and Drton, 2020; Shimizu et al., 2006; Yu et al., 2023), existing general-purpose algorithms are not scalable to problems involving many variables. In spite of the many challenges of learning DAGs in general settings, the problem becomes very manageable if a valid causal ordering among variables is known (Shojaie and Michailidis, 2010). In a valid causal ordering for a DAG G with node set V, any node j can appear before another node k (denoted j k) only if there is no directed path from k to j.

Recent work shows that path gradient estimators for normalizing flows have lower variance compared to standard estimators for variational inference, resulting in improved training. However, they are often prohibitively more expensive from a computational point of view and cannot be applied to maximum likelihood training in a scalable manner, which severely hinders their widespread adoption. In this work, we overcome these crucial limitations. Specifically, we propose a fast path gradient estimator which improves computational efficiency significantly and works for all normalizing flow architectures of practical relevance. We then show that this estimator can also be applied to maximum likelihood training for which it has a regularizing effect as it can take the form of a given target energy function into account. We empirically establish its superior performance and reduced variance for several natural sciences applications.

In this paper, we present an online reinforcement learning algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes with a safety constraint. Despite the necessary attention of the scientific community, considering stochastic stopping time, the problem of learning optimal policy without violating safety constraints during the learning phase is yet to be addressed. To this end, we propose an algorithm based on linear programming that does not require a process model. We show that the learned policy is safe with high confidence. We also propose a method to compute a safe baseline policy, which is central in developing algorithms that do not violate the safety constraints. Finally, we provide simulation results to show the efficacy of the proposed algorithm. Further, we demonstrate that efficient exploration can be achieved by defining a subset of the state-space called proxy set.