We study the problem of online sequential decision-making given auxiliary demonstrations from experts who made their decisions based on unobserved contextual information. These demonstrations can be viewed as solving related but slightly different tasks than what the learner faces. This setting arises in many application domains, such as self-driving cars, healthcare, and finance, where expert demonstrations are made using contextual information, which is not recorded in the data available to the learning agent. We model the problem as a zero-shot meta-reinforcement learning setting with an unknown task distribution and a Bayesian regret minimization objective, where the unobserved tasks are encoded as parameters with an unknown prior. We propose the Experts-as-Priors algorithm (ExPerior), a non-parametric empirical Bayes approach that utilizes the principle of maximum entropy to establish an informative prior over the learner's decision-making problem. This prior enables the application of any Bayesian approach for online decision-making, such as posterior sampling. We demonstrate that our strategy surpasses existing behaviour cloning and online algorithms for multi-armed bandits and reinforcement learning, showcasing the utility of our approach in leveraging expert demonstrations across different decision-making setups.

This work presents a framework for automatically extracting physical object properties, such as material composition, mass, volume, and stiffness, through robot manipulation and a database of object measurements. The framework involves exploratory action selection to maximize learning about objects on a table. A Bayesian network models conditional dependencies between object properties, incorporating prior probability distributions and uncertainty associated with measurement actions. The algorithm selects optimal exploratory actions based on expected information gain and updates object properties through Bayesian inference. Experimental evaluation demonstrates effective action selection compared to a baseline and correct termination of the experiments if there is nothing more to be learned. The algorithm proved to behave intelligently when presented with trick objects with material properties in conflict with their appearance. The robot pipeline integrates with a logging module and an online database of objects, containing over 24,000 measurements of 63 objects with different grippers. All code and data are publicly available, facilitating automatic digitization of objects and their physical properties through exploratory manipulations.

While reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have been successfully applied across numerous sequential decision-making problems, their generalization to unforeseen testing environments remains a significant concern. In this paper, we study the problem of out-of-distribution (OOD) detection in RL, which focuses on identifying situations at test time that RL agents have not encountered in their training environments. We first propose a clarification of terminology for OOD detection in RL, which aligns it with the literature from other machine learning domains. We then present new benchmark scenarios for OOD detection, which introduce anomalies with temporal autocorrelation into different components of the agent-environment loop. We argue that such scenarios have been understudied in the current literature, despite their relevance to real-world situations. Confirming our theoretical predictions, our experimental results suggest that state-of-the-art OOD detectors are not able to identify such anomalies. To address this problem, we propose a novel method for OOD detection, which we call DEXTER (Detection via Extraction of Time Series Representations). By treating environment observations as time series data, DEXTER extracts salient time series features, and then leverages an ensemble of isolation forest algorithms to detect anomalies. We find that DEXTER can reliably identify anomalies across benchmark scenarios, exhibiting superior performance compared to both state-of-the-art OOD detectors and high-dimensional changepoint detectors adopted from statistics.

Preference modelling lies at the intersection of economics, decision theory, machine learning and statistics. By understanding individuals' preferences and how they make choices, we can build products that closely match their expectations, paving the way for more efficient and personalised applications across a wide range of domains. The objective of this tutorial is to present a cohesive and comprehensive framework for preference learning with Gaussian Processes (GPs), demonstrating how to seamlessly incorporate rationality principles (from economics and decision theory) into the learning process. By suitably tailoring the likelihood function, this framework enables the construction of preference learning models that encompass random utility models, limits of discernment, and scenarios with multiple conflicting utilities for both object- and label-preference. This tutorial builds upon established research while simultaneously introducing some novel GP-based models to address specific gaps in the existing literature.

The von Mises-Fisher distribution as an exponential family can be expressed in terms of either its natural or its mean parameters. Unfortunately, however, the normalization function for the distribution in terms of its mean parameters is not available in closed form, limiting the practicality of the mean parametrization and complicating maximum-likelihood estimation more generally. We derive a second-order ordinary differential equation, the solution to which yields the mean-parameter normalizer along with its first two derivatives, as well as the variance function of the family. We also provide closed-form approximations to the solution of the differential equation. This allows rapid evaluation of both densities and natural parameters in terms of mean parameters. We show applications to topic modeling with mixtures of von Mises-Fisher distributions using Bregman Clustering.

Graphs are a natural representation for systems based on relations between connected entities. Combinatorial optimization problems, which arise when considering an objective function related to a process of interest on discrete structures, are often challenging due to the rapid growth of the solution space. The trial-and-error paradigm of Reinforcement Learning has recently emerged as a promising alternative to traditional methods, such as exact algorithms and (meta)heuristics, for discovering better decision-making strategies in a variety of disciplines including chemistry, computer science, and statistics. Despite the fact that they arose in markedly different fields, these techniques share significant commonalities. Therefore, we set out to synthesize this work in a unifying perspective that we term Graph Reinforcement Learning, interpreting it as a constructive decision-making method for graph problems. After covering the relevant technical background, we review works along the dividing line of whether the goal is to optimize graph structure given a process of interest, or to optimize the outcome of the process itself under fixed graph structure. Finally, we discuss the common challenges facing the field and open research questions. In contrast with other surveys, the present work focuses on non-canonical graph problems for which performant algorithms are typically not known and Reinforcement Learning is able to provide efficient and effective solutions.

Causality reveals fundamental principles behind data distributions in real-world scenarios, and the capability of large language models (LLMs) to understand causality directly impacts their efficacy across explaining outputs, adapting to new evidence, and generating counterfactuals. With the proliferation of LLMs, the evaluation of this capacity is increasingly garnering attention. However, the absence of a comprehensive benchmark has rendered existing evaluation studies being straightforward, undiversified, and homogeneous. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a comprehensive benchmark, namely CausalBench, to evaluate the causality understanding capabilities of LLMs. Originating from the causal research community, CausalBench encompasses three causal learning-related tasks, which facilitate a convenient comparison of LLMs' performance with classic causal learning algorithms. Meanwhile, causal networks of varying scales and densities are integrated in CausalBench, to explore the upper limits of LLMs' capabilities across task scenarios of varying difficulty. Notably, background knowledge and structured data are also incorporated into CausalBench to thoroughly unlock the underlying potential of LLMs for long-text comprehension and prior information utilization. Based on CausalBench, this paper evaluates nineteen leading LLMs and unveils insightful conclusions in diverse aspects. Firstly, we present the strengths and weaknesses of LLMs and quantitatively explore the upper limits of their capabilities across various scenarios. Meanwhile, we further discern the adaptability and abilities of LLMs to specific structural networks and complex chain of thought structures. Moreover, this paper quantitatively presents the differences across diverse information sources and uncovers the gap between LLMs' capabilities in causal understanding within textual contexts and numerical domains.

Motivated by Q-learning, we study nonsmooth contractive stochastic approximation (SA) with constant stepsize. We focus on two important classes of dynamics: 1) nonsmooth contractive SA with additive noise, and 2) synchronous and asynchronous Q-learning, which features both additive and multiplicative noise. For both dynamics, we establish weak convergence of the iterates to a stationary limit distribution in Wasserstein distance. Furthermore, we propose a prelimit coupling technique for establishing steady-state convergence and characterize the limit of the stationary distribution as the stepsize goes to zero. Using this result, we derive that the asymptotic bias of nonsmooth SA is proportional to the square root of the stepsize, which stands in sharp contrast to smooth SA. This bias characterization allows for the use of Richardson-Romberg extrapolation for bias reduction in nonsmooth SA.

In the realm of web agent research, achieving both generalization and accuracy remains a challenging problem. Due to high variance in website structure, existing approaches often fail. Moreover, existing fine-tuning and in-context learning techniques fail to generalize across multiple websites. We introduce Wilbur, an approach that uses a differentiable ranking model and a novel instruction synthesis technique to optimally populate a black-box large language model's prompt with task demonstrations from previous runs. To maximize end-to-end success rates, we also propose an intelligent backtracking mechanism that learns and recovers from its mistakes. Finally, we show that our ranking model can be trained on data from a generative auto-curriculum which samples representative goals from an LLM, runs the agent, and automatically evaluates it, with no manual annotation. Wilbur achieves state-of-the-art results on the WebVoyager benchmark, beating text-only models by 8% overall, and up to 36% on certain websites. On the same benchmark, Wilbur is within 5% of a strong multi-modal model despite only receiving textual inputs, and further analysis reveals a substantial number of failures are due to engineering challenges of operating the web.

Data trading is increasingly gaining attention. However, the inherent replicability and privacy concerns of data make it challenging to directly apply traditional trading theories to data markets. This paper compares data trading markets with traditional ones, focusing particularly on how the replicability and privacy of data impact data markets. We discuss how data's replicability fundamentally alters the concept of opportunity cost in traditional microeconomics within the context of data markets. Additionally, we explore how to leverage this change to maximize benefits without compromising data privacy. This paper outlines the constraints for data circulation within the privacy domain chain and presents a model that maximizes data's value under these constraints. Specific application scenarios are provided, and experiments demonstrate the solvability of this model.