Epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) identifies where models lack knowledge. Traditional UQ methods, often based on Bayesian neural networks, are not suitable for pre-trained non-Bayesian models. Our study addresses quantifying epistemic uncertainty for any pre-trained model, which does not need the original training data or model modifications and can ensure broad applicability regardless of network architectures or training techniques. Specifically, we propose a gradient-based approach to assess epistemic uncertainty, analyzing the gradients of outputs relative to model parameters, and thereby indicating necessary model adjustments to accurately represent the inputs. We first explore theoretical guarantees of gradient-based methods for epistemic UQ, questioning the view that this uncertainty is only calculable through differences between multiple models. We further improve gradient-driven UQ by using class-specific weights for integrating gradients and emphasizing distinct contributions from neural network layers. Additionally, we enhance UQ accuracy by combining gradient and perturbation methods to refine the gradients. We evaluate our approach on out-of-distribution detection, uncertainty calibration, and active learning, demonstrating its superiority over current state-of-the-art UQ methods for pre-trained models.

Enhancing simulation environments to replicate real-world driver behavior is essential for developing Autonomous Vehicle technology. While some previous works have studied the yielding reaction of lag vehicles in response to a merging car at highway on-ramps, the possible lane-change reaction of the lag car has not been widely studied. In this work we aim to improve the simulation of the highway merge scenario by including the lane-change reaction in addition to yielding behavior of main-lane lag vehicles, and we evaluate two different models for their ability to capture this reactive lane-change behavior. To tune the payoff functions of these models, a novel naturalistic dataset was collected on U.S. highways that provided several hours of merge-specific data to learn the lane change behavior of U.S. drivers. To make sure that we are collecting a representative set of different U.S. highway geometries in our data, we surveyed 50,000 U.S. highway on-ramps and then selected eight representative sites. The data were collected using roadside-mounted lidar sensors to capture various merge driver interactions. The models were demonstrated to be configurable for both keep-straight and lane-change behavior. The models were finally integrated into a high-fidelity simulation environment and confirmed to have adequate computation time efficiency for use in large-scale simulations to support autonomous vehicle development.

Embodied visual tracking is to follow a target object in dynamic 3D environments using an agent's egocentric vision. This is a vital and challenging skill for embodied agents. However, existing methods suffer from inefficient training and poor generalization. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that combines visual foundation models (VFM) and offline reinforcement learning (offline RL) to empower embodied visual tracking. We use a pre-trained VFM, such as ``Tracking Anything", to extract semantic segmentation masks with text prompts. We then train a recurrent policy network with offline RL, e.g., Conservative Q-Learning, to learn from the collected demonstrations without online agent-environment interactions. To further improve the robustness and generalization of the policy network, we also introduce a mask re-targeting mechanism and a multi-level data collection strategy. In this way, we can train a robust tracker within an hour on a consumer-level GPU, e.g., Nvidia RTX 3090. Such efficiency is unprecedented for RL-based visual tracking methods. We evaluate our tracker on several high-fidelity environments with challenging situations, such as distraction and occlusion. The results show that our agent outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of sample efficiency, robustness to distractors, and generalization to unseen scenarios and targets. We also demonstrate the transferability of the learned tracker from the virtual world to real-world scenarios.

It has long been hypothesised that causal reasoning plays a fundamental role in robust and general intelligence. However, it is not known if agents must learn causal models in order to generalise to new domains, or if other inductive biases are sufficient. We answer this question, showing that any agent capable of satisfying a regret bound under a large set of distributional shifts must have learned an approximate causal model of the data generating process, which converges to the true causal model for optimal agents. We discuss the implications of this result for several research areas including transfer learning and causal inference.

This note clarifies some confusions (and perhaps throws out more) around model-based reinforcement learning and their theoretical understanding in the context of deep RL. Main topics of discussion are (1) how to reconcile model-based RL's bad empirical reputation on error compounding with its superior theoretical properties, and (2) the limitations of empirically popular losses. For the latter, concrete counterexamples for the "MuZero loss" are constructed to show that it not only fails in stochastic environments, but also suffers exponential sample complexity in deterministic environments when data provides sufficient coverage.

Constrained learning has become increasingly important, especially in the realm of algorithmic fairness and machine learning. In these settings, predictive models are developed specifically to satisfy pre-defined notions of fairness. Here, we study the general problem of constrained statistical machine learning through a statistical functional lens. We consider learning a function-valued parameter of interest under the constraint that one or several pre-specified real-valued functional parameters equal zero or are otherwise bounded. We characterize the constrained functional parameter as the minimizer of a penalized risk criterion using a Lagrange multiplier formulation. We show that closed-form solutions for the optimal constrained parameter are often available, providing insight into mechanisms that drive fairness in predictive models. Our results also suggest natural estimators of the constrained parameter that can be constructed by combining estimates of unconstrained parameters of the data generating distribution. Thus, our estimation procedure for constructing fair machine learning algorithms can be applied in conjunction with any statistical learning approach and off-the-shelf software. We demonstrate the generality of our method by explicitly considering a number of examples of statistical fairness constraints and implementing the approach using several popular learning approaches.

Amortized Bayesian inference trains neural networks to solve stochastic inference problems using model simulations, thereby making it possible to rapidly perform Bayesian inference for any newly observed data. However, current simulation-based amortized inference methods are simulation-hungry and inflexible: They require the specification of a fixed parametric prior, simulator, and inference tasks ahead of time. Here, we present a new amortized inference method -- the Simformer -- which overcomes these limitations. By training a probabilistic diffusion model with transformer architectures, the Simformer outperforms current state-of-the-art amortized inference approaches on benchmark tasks and is substantially more flexible: It can be applied to models with function-valued parameters, it can handle inference scenarios with missing or unstructured data, and it can sample arbitrary conditionals of the joint distribution of parameters and data, including both posterior and likelihood. We showcase the performance and flexibility of the Simformer on simulators from ecology, epidemiology, and neuroscience, and demonstrate that it opens up new possibilities and application domains for amortized Bayesian inference on simulation-based models.

This research employs Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with an ensemble kernel, integrating Exponential Squared, Revised Mat\'ern, and Rational Quadratic kernels to analyze pharmaceutical sales data. Bayesian optimization was used to identify optimal kernel weights: 0.76 for Exponential Squared, 0.21 for Revised Mat\'ern, and 0.13 for Rational Quadratic. The ensemble kernel demonstrated superior performance in predictive accuracy, achieving an \( R^2 \) score near 1.0, and significantly lower values in Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). These findings highlight the efficacy of ensemble kernels in GPR for predictive analytics in complex pharmaceutical sales datasets.

Recent work to enhance data partitioning strategies for more realistic model evaluation face challenges in providing a clear optimal choice. This study addresses these challenges, focusing on morphological segmentation and synthesizing limitations related to language diversity, adoption of multiple datasets and splits, and detailed model comparisons. Our study leverages data from 19 languages, including ten indigenous or endangered languages across 10 language families with diverse morphological systems (polysynthetic, fusional, and agglutinative) and different degrees of data availability. We conduct large-scale experimentation with varying sized combinations of training and evaluation sets as well as new test data. Our results show that, when faced with new test data: (1) models trained from random splits are able to achieve higher numerical scores; (2) model rankings derived from random splits tend to generalize more consistently.

In recent years, deep or reinforcement learning approaches have been applied to optimise investment portfolios through learning the spatial and temporal information under the dynamic financial market. Yet in most cases, the existing approaches may produce biased trading signals based on the conventional price data due to a lot of market noises, which possibly fails to balance the investment returns and risks. Accordingly, a multi-agent and self-adaptive portfolio optimisation framework integrated with attention mechanisms and time series, namely the MASAAT, is proposed in this work in which multiple trading agents are created to observe and analyse the price series and directional change data that recognises the significant changes of asset prices at different levels of granularity for enhancing the signal-to-noise ratio of price series. Afterwards, by reconstructing the tokens of financial data in a sequence, the attention-based cross-sectional analysis module and temporal analysis module of each agent can effectively capture the correlations between assets and the dependencies between time points. Besides, a portfolio generator is integrated into the proposed framework to fuse the spatial-temporal information and then summarise the portfolios suggested by all trading agents to produce a newly ensemble portfolio for reducing biased trading actions and balancing the overall returns and risks. The experimental results clearly demonstrate that the MASAAT framework achieves impressive enhancement when compared with many well-known portfolio optimsation approaches on three challenging data sets of DJIA, S&P 500 and CSI 300. More importantly, our proposal has potential strengths in many possible applications for future study.