Learning Graphical Models
Beyond the Edge: An Advanced Exploration of Reinforcement Learning for Mobile Edge Computing, its Applications, and Future Research Trajectories
Yang, Ning, Chen, Shuo, Zhang, Haijun, Berry, Randall
Mobile Edge Computing (MEC) broadens the scope of computation and storage beyond the central network, incorporating edge nodes close to end devices. This expansion facilitates the implementation of large-scale "connected things" within edge networks. The advent of applications necessitating real-time, high-quality service presents several challenges, such as low latency, high data rate, reliability, efficiency, and security, all of which demand resolution. The incorporation of reinforcement learning (RL) methodologies within MEC networks promotes a deeper understanding of mobile user behaviors and network dynamics, thereby optimizing resource use in computing and communication processes. This paper offers an exhaustive survey of RL applications in MEC networks, initially presenting an overview of RL from its fundamental principles to the latest advanced frameworks. Furthermore, it outlines various RL strategies employed in offloading, caching, and communication within MEC networks. Finally, it explores open issues linked with software and hardware platforms, representation, RL robustness, safe RL, large-scale scheduling, generalization, security, and privacy. The paper proposes specific RL techniques to mitigate these issues and provides insights into their practical applications.
Uncertainty Quantification on Graph Learning: A Survey
Chen, Chao, Guo, Chenghua, Xu, Rui, Liao, Xiangwen, Zhang, Xi, Xie, Sihong, Xiong, Hui, Yu, Philip
Graphical models, including Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs), have demonstrated their exceptional capabilities across numerous fields. These models necessitate effective uncertainty quantification to ensure reliable decision-making amid the challenges posed by model training discrepancies and unpredictable testing scenarios. This survey examines recent works that address uncertainty quantification within the model architectures, training, and inference of GNNs and PGMs. We aim to provide an overview of the current landscape of uncertainty in graphical models by organizing the recent methods into uncertainty representation and handling. By summarizing state-of-the-art methods, this survey seeks to deepen the understanding of uncertainty quantification in graphical models, thereby increasing their effectiveness and safety in critical applications.
Apple Tasting Revisited: Bayesian Approaches to Partially Monitored Online Binary Classification
Grant, James A., Leslie, David S.
We consider a variant of online binary classification where a learner sequentially assigns labels ($0$ or $1$) to items with unknown true class. If, but only if, the learner chooses label $1$ they immediately observe the true label of the item. The learner faces a trade-off between short-term classification accuracy and long-term information gain. This problem has previously been studied under the name of the `apple tasting' problem. We revisit this problem as a partial monitoring problem with side information, and focus on the case where item features are linked to true classes via a logistic regression model. Our principal contribution is a study of the performance of Thompson Sampling (TS) for this problem. Using recently developed information-theoretic tools, we show that TS achieves a Bayesian regret bound of an improved order to previous approaches. Further, we experimentally verify that efficient approximations to TS and Information Directed Sampling via P\'{o}lya-Gamma augmentation have superior empirical performance to existing methods.
Preserving linear invariants in ensemble filtering methods
Provost, Mathieu Le, Glaubitz, Jan, Marzouk, Youssef
Formulating dynamical models for physical phenomena is essential for understanding the interplay between the different mechanisms and predicting the evolution of physical states. However, a dynamical model alone is often insufficient to address these fundamental tasks, as it suffers from model errors and uncertainties. One common remedy is to rely on data assimilation, where the state estimate is updated with observations of the true system. Ensemble filters sequentially assimilate observations by updating a set of samples over time. They operate in two steps: a forecast step that propagates each sample through the dynamical model and an analysis step that updates the samples with incoming observations. For accurate and robust predictions of dynamical systems, discrete solutions must preserve their critical invariants. While modern numerical solvers satisfy these invariants, existing invariant-preserving analysis steps are limited to Gaussian settings and are often not compatible with classical regularization techniques of ensemble filters, e.g., inflation and covariance tapering. The present work focuses on preserving linear invariants, such as mass, stoichiometric balance of chemical species, and electrical charges. Using tools from measure transport theory (Spantini et al., 2022, SIAM Review), we introduce a generic class of nonlinear ensemble filters that automatically preserve desired linear invariants in non-Gaussian filtering problems. By specializing this framework to the Gaussian setting, we recover a constrained formulation of the Kalman filter. Then, we show how to combine existing regularization techniques for the ensemble Kalman filter (Evensen, 1994, J. Geophys. Res.) with the preservation of the linear invariants. Finally, we assess the benefits of preserving linear invariants for the ensemble Kalman filter and nonlinear ensemble filters.
A Bayesian Approach for Prioritising Driving Behaviour Investigations in Telematic Auto Insurance Policies
McLeod, Mark, Perez-Orozco, Bernardo, Lee, Nika, Zilli, Davide
Automotive insurers increasingly have access to telematic information via black-box recorders installed in the insured vehicle, and wish to identify undesirable behaviour which may signify increased risk or uninsured activities. However, identification of such behaviour with machine learning is non-trivial, and results are far from perfect, requiring human investigation to verify suspected cases. An appropriately formed priority score, generated by automated analysis of GPS data, allows underwriters to make more efficient use of their time, improving detection of the behaviour under investigation. An example of such behaviour is the use of a privately insured vehicle for commercial purposes, such as delivering meals and parcels. We first make use of trip GPS and accelerometer data, augmented by geospatial information, to train an imperfect classifier for delivery driving on a per-trip basis. We make use of a mixture of Beta-Binomial distributions to model the propensity of a policyholder to undertake trips which result in a positive classification as being drawn from either a rare high-scoring or common low-scoring group, and learn the parameters of this model using MCMC. This model provides us with a posterior probability that any policyholder will be a regular generator of automated alerts given any number of trips and alerts. This posterior probability is converted to a priority score, which was used to select the most valuable candidates for manual investigation. Testing over a 1-year period ranked policyholders by likelihood of commercial driving activity on a weekly basis. The top 0.9% have been reviewed at least once by the underwriters at the time of writing, and of those 99.4% have been confirmed as correctly identified, showing the approach has achieved a significant improvement in efficiency of human resource allocation compared to manual searching.
Interval Abstractions for Robust Counterfactual Explanations
Jiang, Junqi, Leofante, Francesco, Rago, Antonio, Toni, Francesca
Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) have emerged as a major paradigm in explainable AI research, providing recourse recommendations for users affected by the decisions of machine learning models. However, when slight changes occur in the parameters of the underlying model, CEs found by existing methods often become invalid for the updated models. The literature lacks a way to certify deterministic robustness guarantees for CEs under model changes, in that existing methods to improve CEs' robustness are heuristic, and the robustness performances are evaluated empirically using only a limited number of retrained models. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel interval abstraction technique for parametric machine learning models, which allows us to obtain provable robustness guarantees of CEs under the possibly infinite set of plausible model changes $\Delta$. We formalise our robustness notion as the $\Delta$-robustness for CEs, in both binary and multi-class classification settings. We formulate procedures to verify $\Delta$-robustness based on Mixed Integer Linear Programming, using which we further propose two algorithms to generate CEs that are $\Delta$-robust. In an extensive empirical study, we demonstrate how our approach can be used in practice by discussing two strategies for determining the appropriate hyperparameter in our method, and we quantitatively benchmark the CEs generated by eleven methods, highlighting the effectiveness of our algorithms in finding robust CEs.
AgentsCoDriver: Large Language Model Empowered Collaborative Driving with Lifelong Learning
Hu, Senkang, Fang, Zhengru, Fang, Zihan, Deng, Yiqin, Chen, Xianhao, Fang, Yuguang
Connected and autonomous driving is developing rapidly in recent years. However, current autonomous driving systems, which are primarily based on data-driven approaches, exhibit deficiencies in interpretability, generalization, and continuing learning capabilities. In addition, the single-vehicle autonomous driving systems lack of the ability of collaboration and negotiation with other vehicles, which is crucial for the safety and efficiency of autonomous driving systems. In order to address these issues, we leverage large language models (LLMs) to develop a novel framework, AgentsCoDriver, to enable multiple vehicles to conduct collaborative driving. AgentsCoDriver consists of five modules: observation module, reasoning engine, cognitive memory module, reinforcement reflection module, and communication module. It can accumulate knowledge, lessons, and experiences over time by continuously interacting with the environment, thereby making itself capable of lifelong learning. In addition, by leveraging the communication module, different agents can exchange information and realize negotiation and collaboration in complex traffic environments. Extensive experiments are conducted and show the superiority of AgentsCoDriver.
Bayesian Diffusion Models for 3D Shape Reconstruction
Xu, Haiyang, Lei, Yu, Chen, Zeyuan, Zhang, Xiang, Zhao, Yue, Wang, Yilin, Tu, Zhuowen
We present Bayesian Diffusion Models (BDM), a prediction algorithm that performs effective Bayesian inference by tightly coupling the top-down (prior) information with the bottom-up (data-driven) procedure via joint diffusion processes. We show the effectiveness of BDM on the 3D shape reconstruction task. Compared to prototypical deep learning data-driven approaches trained on paired (supervised) data-labels (e.g. image-point clouds) datasets, our BDM brings in rich prior information from standalone labels (e.g. point clouds) to improve the bottom-up 3D reconstruction. As opposed to the standard Bayesian frameworks where explicit prior and likelihood are required for the inference, BDM performs seamless information fusion via coupled diffusion processes with learned gradient computation networks. The specialty of our BDM lies in its capability to engage the active and effective information exchange and fusion of the top-down and bottom-up processes where each itself is a diffusion process. We demonstrate state-of-the-art results on both synthetic and real-world benchmarks for 3D shape reconstruction.
Inference of Causal Networks using a Topological Threshold
Barroso, Filipe, Gomes, Diogo, Baxter, Gareth J.
We propose a constraint-based algorithm, which automatically determines causal relevance thresholds, to infer causal networks from data. We call these topological thresholds. We present two methods for determining the threshold: the first seeks a set of edges that leaves no disconnected nodes in the network; the second seeks a causal large connected component in the data. We tested these methods both for discrete synthetic and real data, and compared the results with those obtained for the PC algorithm, which we took as the benchmark. We show that this novel algorithm is generally faster and more accurate than the PC algorithm. The algorithm for determining the thresholds requires choosing a measure of causality. We tested our methods for Fisher Correlations, commonly used in PC algorithm (for instance in \cite{kalisch2005}), and further proposed a discrete and asymmetric measure of causality, that we called Net Influence, which provided very good results when inferring causal networks from discrete data. This metric allows for inferring directionality of the edges in the process of applying the thresholds, speeding up the inference of causal DAGs.
Capturing Momentum: Tennis Match Analysis Using Machine Learning and Time Series Theory
Lei, Jingdi, Kang, Tianqi, Cao, Yuluan, Ren, Shiwei
This paper represents an analysis on the momentum of tennis match. And due to Generalization performance of it, it can be helpful in constructing a system to predict the result of sports game and analyze the performance of player based on the Technical statistics. We First use hidden markov models to predict the momentum which is defined as the performance of players. Then we use Xgboost to prove the significance of momentum. Finally we use LightGBM to evaluate the performance of our model and use SHAP feature importance ranking and weight analysis to find the key points that affect the performance of players.