Graph neural networks (GNN) have emerged as a popular tool for modelling functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) datasets. Many recent studies have reported significant improvements in disorder classification performance via more sophisticated GNN designs and highlighted salient features that could be potential biomarkers of the disorder. In this review, we provide an overview of how GNN and model explainability techniques have been applied on fMRI datasets for disorder prediction tasks, with a particular emphasis on the robustness of biomarkers produced for neurodegenerative diseases and neuropsychiatric disorders. We found that while most studies have performant models, salient features highlighted in these studies vary greatly across studies on the same disorder and little has been done to evaluate their robustness. To address these issues, we suggest establishing new standards that are based on objective evaluation metrics to determine the robustness of these potential biomarkers. We further highlight gaps in the existing literature and put together a prediction-attribution-evaluation framework that could set the foundations for future research on improving the robustness of potential biomarkers discovered via GNNs.

Causal reasoning is viewed as crucial for achieving human-level machine intelligence. Recent advances in language models have expanded the horizons of artificial intelligence across various domains, sparking inquiries into their potential for causal reasoning. In this work, we introduce Causal evaluation of Language Models (CaLM), which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating the causal reasoning capabilities of language models. First, we propose the CaLM framework, which establishes a foundational taxonomy consisting of four modules: causal target (i.e., what to evaluate), adaptation (i.e., how to obtain the results), metric (i.e., how to measure the results), and error (i.e., how to analyze the bad results). This taxonomy defines a broad evaluation design space while systematically selecting criteria and priorities. Second, we compose the CaLM dataset, comprising 126,334 data samples, to provide curated sets of causal targets, adaptations, metrics, and errors, offering extensive coverage for diverse research pursuits. Third, we conduct an extensive evaluation of 28 leading language models on a core set of 92 causal targets, 9 adaptations, 7 metrics, and 12 error types. Fourth, we perform detailed analyses of the evaluation results across various dimensions (e.g., adaptation, scale). Fifth, we present 50 high-level empirical findings across 9 dimensions (e.g., model), providing valuable guidance for future language model development. Finally, we develop a multifaceted platform, including a website, leaderboards, datasets, and toolkits, to support scalable and adaptable assessments. We envision CaLM as an ever-evolving benchmark for the community, systematically updated with new causal targets, adaptations, models, metrics, and error types to reflect ongoing research advancements. Project website is at https://opencausalab.github.io/CaLM.

U-Nets are among the most widely used architectures in computer vision, renowned for their exceptional performance in applications such as image segmentation, denoising, and diffusion modeling. However, a theoretical explanation of the U-Net architecture design has not yet been fully established. This paper introduces a novel interpretation of the U-Net architecture by studying certain generative hierarchical models, which are tree-structured graphical models extensively utilized in both language and image domains. With their encoder-decoder structure, long skip connections, and pooling and up-sampling layers, we demonstrate how U-Nets can naturally implement the belief propagation denoising algorithm in such generative hierarchical models, thereby efficiently approximating the denoising functions. This leads to an efficient sample complexity bound for learning the denoising function using U-Nets within these models. Additionally, we discuss the broader implications of these findings for diffusion models in generative hierarchical models. We also demonstrate that the conventional architecture of convolutional neural networks (ConvNets) is ideally suited for classification tasks within these models. This offers a unified view of the roles of ConvNets and U-Nets, highlighting the versatility of generative hierarchical models in modeling complex data distributions across language and image domains.

Restless multi-armed bandits (RMAB) play a central role in modeling sequential decision making problems under an instantaneous activation constraint that at most B arms can be activated at any decision epoch. Each restless arm is endowed with a state that evolves independently according to a Markov decision process regardless of being activated or not. In this paper, we consider the task of learning in episodic RMAB with unknown transition functions and adversarial rewards, which can change arbitrarily across episodes. Further, we consider a challenging but natural bandit feedback setting that only adversarial rewards of activated arms are revealed to the decision maker (DM). The goal of the DM is to maximize its total adversarial rewards during the learning process while the instantaneous activation constraint must be satisfied in each decision epoch. We develop a novel reinforcement learning algorithm with two key contributors: a novel biased adversarial reward estimator to deal with bandit feedback and unknown transitions, and a low-complexity index policy to satisfy the instantaneous activation constraint. We show $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(H\sqrt{T})$ regret bound for our algorithm, where $T$ is the number of episodes and $H$ is the episode length. To our best knowledge, this is the first algorithm to ensure $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ regret for adversarial RMAB in our considered challenging settings.

The Bayes coding algorithm for context tree source is a successful example of Bayesian tree estimation in text compression in information theory. This algorithm provides an efficient parametric representation of the posterior tree distribution and exact updating of its parameters. We apply this algorithm to a clustering task in machine learning. More specifically, we apply it to Bayesian estimation of the tree-structured stick-breaking process (TS-SBP) mixture models. For TS-SBP mixture models, only Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have been proposed so far, but any variational Bayesian methods have not been proposed yet. In this paper, we propose a variational Bayesian method that has a subroutine similar to the Bayes coding algorithm for context tree sources. We confirm its behavior by a numerical experiment on a toy example.

We initiate the study of Hamiltonian structure learning from real-time evolution: given the ability to apply $e^{-\mathrm{i} Ht}$ for an unknown local Hamiltonian $H = \sum_{a = 1}^m \lambda_a E_a$ on $n$ qubits, the goal is to recover $H$. This problem is already well-studied under the assumption that the interaction terms, $E_a$, are given, and only the interaction strengths, $\lambda_a$, are unknown. But is it possible to learn a local Hamiltonian without prior knowledge of its interaction structure? We present a new, general approach to Hamiltonian learning that not only solves the challenging structure learning variant, but also resolves other open questions in the area, all while achieving the gold standard of Heisenberg-limited scaling. In particular, our algorithm recovers the Hamiltonian to $\varepsilon$ error with an evolution time scaling with $1/\varepsilon$, and has the following appealing properties: (1) it does not need to know the Hamiltonian terms; (2) it works beyond the short-range setting, extending to any Hamiltonian $H$ where the sum of terms interacting with a qubit has bounded norm; (3) it evolves according to $H$ in constant time $t$ increments, thus achieving constant time resolution. To our knowledge, no prior algorithm with Heisenberg-limited scaling existed with even one of these properties. As an application, we can also learn Hamiltonians exhibiting power-law decay up to accuracy $\varepsilon$ with total evolution time beating the standard limit of $1/\varepsilon^2$.

Network scientists often use complex dynamic processes to describe network contagions, but tools for fitting contagion models typically assume simple dynamics. Here, we address this gap by developing a nonparametric method to reconstruct a network and dynamics from a series of node states, using a model that breaks the dichotomy between simple pairwise and complex neighborhood-based contagions. We then show that a network is more easily reconstructed when observed through the lens of complex contagions if it is dense or the dynamic saturates, and that simple contagions are better otherwise.

Bayes' rule describes how to infer posterior beliefs about latent variables given observations, and inference is a critical step in learning algorithms for latent variable models (LVMs). Although there are exact algorithms for inference and learning for certain LVMs such as linear Gaussian models and mixture models, researchers must typically develop approximate inference and learning algorithms when applying novel LVMs. In this paper we study the line that separates LVMs that rely on approximation schemes from those that do not, and develop a general theory of exponential family, latent variable models for which inference and learning may be implemented exactly. Firstly, under mild assumptions about the exponential family form of a given LVM, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions under which the LVM prior is in the same exponential family as its posterior, such that the prior is conjugate to the posterior. We show that all models that satisfy these conditions are constrained forms of a particular class of exponential family graphical model. We then derive general inference and learning algorithms, and demonstrate them on a variety of example models. Finally, we show how to compose our models into graphical models that retain tractable inference and learning. In addition to our theoretical work, we have implemented our algorithms in a collection of libraries with which we provide numerous demonstrations of our theory, and with which researchers may apply our theory in novel statistical settings.

Imbuing machines with the ability to talk has been a longtime pursuit of artificial intelligence (AI) research. From the very beginning, the community has not only aimed to synthesise high-fidelity speech that accurately conveys the semantic meaning of an utterance, but also to colour it with inflections that cover the same range of affective expressions that humans are capable of. After many years of research, it appears that we are on the cusp of achieving this when it comes to single, isolated utterances. This unveils an abundance of potential avenues to explore when it comes to combining these single utterances with the aim of synthesising more complex, longer-term behaviours. In the present chapter, we outline the methodological advances that brought us so far and sketch out the ongoing efforts to reach that coveted next level of artificial expressivity. We also discuss the societal implications coupled with rapidly advancing expressive speech synthesis (ESS) technology and highlight ways to mitigate those risks and ensure the alignment of ESS capabilities with ethical norms.

For nearly three decades, language models derived from the $n$-gram assumption held the state of the art on the task. The key to their success lay in the application of various smoothing techniques that served to combat overfitting. However, when neural language models toppled $n$-gram models as the best performers, $n$-gram smoothing techniques became less relevant. Indeed, it would hardly be an understatement to suggest that the line of inquiry into $n$-gram smoothing techniques became dormant. This paper re-opens the role classical $n$-gram smoothing techniques may play in the age of neural language models. First, we draw a formal equivalence between label smoothing, a popular regularization technique for neural language models, and add-$\lambda$ smoothing. Second, we derive a generalized framework for converting any $n$-gram smoothing technique into a regularizer compatible with neural language models. Our empirical results find that our novel regularizers are comparable to and, indeed, sometimes outperform label smoothing on language modeling and machine translation.