Causal discovery in the presence of missing data introduces a chicken-and-egg dilemma. While the goal is to recover the true causal structure, robust imputation requires considering the dependencies or, preferably, causal relations among variables. Merely filling in missing values with existing imputation methods and subsequently applying structure learning on the complete data is empirically shown to be sub-optimal. To address this problem, we propose a score-based algorithm for learning causal structures from missing data based on optimal transport. This optimal transport viewpoint diverges from existing score-based approaches that are dominantly based on expectation maximization. We formulate structure learning as a density fitting problem, where the goal is to find the causal model that induces a distribution of minimum Wasserstein distance with the observed data distribution. Our framework is shown to recover the true causal graphs more effectively than competing methods in most simulations and real-data settings. Empirical evidence also shows the superior scalability of our approach, along with the flexibility to incorporate any off-the-shelf causal discovery methods for complete data.

Soft labels can improve the generalization of a neural network classifier in many domains, such as image classification. Despite its success, the current literature has overlooked the efficiency of label smoothing in node classification with graph-structured data. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective label smoothing for the transductive node classification task. We design the soft label to encapsulate the local context of the target node through the neighborhood label distribution. We apply the smoothing method for seven baseline models to show its effectiveness. The label smoothing methods improve the classification accuracy in 10 node classification datasets in most cases. In the following analysis, we find that incorporating global label statistics in posterior computation is the key to the success of label smoothing. Further investigation reveals that the soft labels mitigate overfitting during training, leading to better generalization performance.

Cultural accumulation drives the open-ended and diverse progress in capabilities spanning human history. It builds an expanding body of knowledge and skills by combining individual exploration with inter-generational information transmission. Despite its widespread success among humans, the capacity for artificial learning agents to accumulate culture remains under-explored. In particular, approaches to reinforcement learning typically strive for improvements over only a single lifetime. Generational algorithms that do exist fail to capture the open-ended, emergent nature of cultural accumulation, which allows individuals to trade-off innovation and imitation. Building on the previously demonstrated ability for reinforcement learning agents to perform social learning, we find that training setups which balance this with independent learning give rise to cultural accumulation. These accumulating agents outperform those trained for a single lifetime with the same cumulative experience. We explore this accumulation by constructing two models under two distinct notions of a generation: episodic generations, in which accumulation occurs via in-context learning and train-time generations, in which accumulation occurs via in-weights learning. In-context and in-weights cultural accumulation can be interpreted as analogous to knowledge and skill accumulation, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to present general models that achieve emergent cultural accumulation in reinforcement learning, opening up new avenues towards more open-ended learning systems, as well as presenting new opportunities for modelling human culture.

Recent advancements in semi-supervised learning have focused on a more realistic yet challenging task: addressing imbalances in labeled data while the class distribution of unlabeled data remains both unknown and potentially mismatched. Current approaches in this sphere often presuppose rigid assumptions regarding the class distribution of unlabeled data, thereby limiting the adaptability of models to only certain distribution ranges. In this study, we propose a novel approach, introducing a highly adaptable framework, designated as SimPro, which does not rely on any predefined assumptions about the distribution of unlabeled data. Our framework, grounded in a probabilistic model, innovatively refines the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm by explicitly decoupling the modeling of conditional and marginal class distributions. This separation facilitates a closed-form solution for class distribution estimation during the maximization phase, leading to the formulation of a Bayes classifier. The Bayes classifier, in turn, enhances the quality of pseudo-labels in the expectation phase. Remarkably, the SimPro framework not only comes with theoretical guarantees but also is straightforward to implement. Moreover, we introduce two novel class distributions broadening the scope of the evaluation. Our method showcases consistent state-of-the-art performance across diverse benchmarks and data distribution scenarios. Our code is available at https://github.com/LeapLabTHU/SimPro.

Hierarchical model-based reinforcement learning (HMBRL) aims to combine the benefits of better sample efficiency of model based reinforcement learning (MBRL) with the abstraction capability of hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL) to solve complex tasks efficiently. While HMBRL has great potential, it still lacks wide adoption. In this work we describe a novel HMBRL framework and evaluate it thoroughly. To complement the multi-layered decision making idiom characteristic for HRL, we construct hierarchical world models that simulate environment dynamics at various levels of temporal abstraction. These models are used to train a stack of agents that communicate in a top-down manner by proposing goals to their subordinate agents. A significant focus of this study is the exploration of a static and environment agnostic temporal abstraction, which allows concurrent training of models and agents throughout the hierarchy. Unlike most goal-conditioned H(MB)RL approaches, it also leads to comparatively low dimensional abstract actions. Although our HMBRL approach did not outperform traditional methods in terms of final episode returns, it successfully facilitated decision making across two levels of abstraction using compact, low dimensional abstract actions. A central challenge in enhancing our method's performance, as uncovered through comprehensive experimentation, is model exploitation on the abstract level of our world model stack. We provide an in depth examination of this issue, discussing its implications for the field and suggesting directions for future research to overcome this challenge. By sharing these findings, we aim to contribute to the broader discourse on refining HMBRL methodologies and to assist in the development of more effective autonomous learning systems for complex decision-making environments.

A core ambition of reinforcement learning (RL) is the creation of agents capable of rapid learning in novel tasks. Meta-RL aims to achieve this by directly learning such agents. Black box methods do so by training off-the-shelf sequence models end-to-end. By contrast, task inference methods explicitly infer a posterior distribution over the unknown task, typically using distinct objectives and sequence models designed to enable task inference. Recent work has shown that task inference methods are not necessary for strong performance. However, it remains unclear whether task inference sequence models are beneficial even when task inference objectives are not. In this paper, we present evidence that task inference sequence models are indeed still beneficial. In particular, we investigate sequence models with permutation invariant aggregation, which exploit the fact that, due to the Markov property, the task posterior does not depend on the order of data. We empirically confirm the advantage of permutation invariant sequence models without the use of task inference objectives. However, we also find, surprisingly, that there are multiple conditions under which permutation variance remains useful. Therefore, we propose SplAgger, which uses both permutation variant and invariant components to achieve the best of both worlds, outperforming all baselines evaluated on continuous control and memory environments. Code is provided at https://github.com/jacooba/hyper.

The Metropolis algorithm is one of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods that realize sampling from the target probability distribution. In this paper, we are concerned with the sampling from the distribution in non-identifiable cases that involve models with Fisher information matrices that may fail to be invertible. The theoretical adjustment of the step size, which is the variance of the candidate distribution, is difficult for non-identifiable cases. In this study, to establish such a principle, the average acceptance rate, which is used as a guideline to optimize the step size in the MCMC method, was analytically derived in non-identifiable cases. The optimization principle for the step size was developed from the viewpoint of the average acceptance rate. In addition, we performed numerical experiments on some specific target distributions to verify the effectiveness of our theoretical results.

Learning concepts from natural high-dimensional data (e.g., images) holds potential in building human-aligned and interpretable machine learning models. Despite its encouraging prospect, formalization and theoretical insights into this crucial task are still lacking. In this work, we formalize concepts as discrete latent causal variables that are related via a hierarchical causal model that encodes different abstraction levels of concepts embedded in high-dimensional data (e.g., a dog breed and its eye shapes in natural images). We formulate conditions to facilitate the identification of the proposed causal model, which reveals when learning such concepts from unsupervised data is possible. Our conditions permit complex causal hierarchical structures beyond latent trees and multi-level directed acyclic graphs in prior work and can handle high-dimensional, continuous observed variables, which is well-suited for unstructured data modalities such as images. We substantiate our theoretical claims with synthetic data experiments. Further, we discuss our theory's implications for understanding the underlying mechanisms of latent diffusion models and provide corresponding empirical evidence for our theoretical insights.

De-interleaving of the mixtures of Hidden Markov Processes (HMPs) generally depends on its representation model. Existing representation models consider Markov chain mixtures rather than hidden Markov, resulting in the lack of robustness to non-ideal situations such as observation noise or missing observations. Besides, de-interleaving methods utilize a search-based strategy, which is time-consuming. To address these issues, this paper proposes a novel representation model and corresponding de-interleaving methods for the mixtures of HMPs. At first, a generative model for representing the mixtures of HMPs is designed. Subsequently, the de-interleaving process is formulated as a posterior inference for the generative model. Secondly, an exact inference method is developed to maximize the likelihood of the complete data, and two approximate inference methods are developed to maximize the evidence lower bound by creating tractable structures. Then, a theoretical error probability lower bound is derived using the likelihood ratio test, and the algorithms are shown to get reasonably close to the bound. Finally, simulation results demonstrate that the proposed methods are highly effective and robust for non-ideal situations, outperforming baseline methods on simulated and real-life data.

Online prediction of time series under regime switching is a widely studied problem in the literature, with many celebrated approaches. Using the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes, the recently proposed INTEL algorithm provides a product of experts approach to online prediction of time series under possible regime switching, including the special case of outliers. This is achieved by adaptively combining several candidate models, each reporting their predictive distribution at time $t$. However, the INTEL algorithm uses a finite context window approximation to the predictive distribution, the computation of which scales cubically with the maximum lag, or otherwise scales quartically with exact predictive distributions. We introduce LINTEL, which uses the exact filtering distribution at time $t$ with constant-time updates, making the time complexity of the streaming algorithm optimal. We additionally note that the weighting mechanism of INTEL is better suited to a mixture of experts approach, and propose a fusion policy based on arithmetic averaging for LINTEL. We show experimentally that our proposed approach is over five times faster than INTEL under reasonable settings with better quality predictions.