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 Learning Graphical Models


Generalisation to unseen topologies: Towards control of biological neural network activity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This would allow for applications in the investigation of activity propagation, and for diagnosis and treatment of pathological behaviour. Due to the partially observable characteristics of activity propagation, through networks in which edges can not be observed, and the dynamic nature of neuronal systems, there is a need for adaptive, generalisable control. In this paper, we introduce an environment that procedurally generates neuronal networks with different topologies to investigate this generalisation problem. Additionally, an existing transformer-based architecture is adjusted to evaluate the generalisation performance of a deep RL agent in the presented partially observable environment. The agent demonstrates the capability to generalise control from a limited number of training networks to unseen test networks.


CLST: Cold-Start Mitigation in Knowledge Tracing by Aligning a Generative Language Model as a Students' Knowledge Tracer

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Knowledge tracing (KT), wherein students' problem-solving histories are used to estimate their current levels of knowledge, has attracted significant interest from researchers. However, most existing KT models were developed with an ID-based paradigm, which exhibits limitations in cold-start performance. These limitations can be mitigated by leveraging the vast quantities of external knowledge possessed by generative large language models (LLMs). In this study, we propose cold-start mitigation in knowledge tracing by aligning a generative language model as a students' knowledge tracer (CLST) as a framework that utilizes a generative LLM as a knowledge tracer. Upon collecting data from math, social studies, and science subjects, we framed the KT task as a natural language processing task, wherein problem-solving data are expressed in natural language, and fine-tuned the generative LLM using the formatted KT dataset. Subsequently, we evaluated the performance of the CLST in situations of data scarcity using various baseline models for comparison. The results indicate that the CLST significantly enhanced performance with a dataset of fewer than 100 students in terms of prediction, reliability, and cross-domain generalization. Keywords: intelligent tutoring system knowledge tracing (KT) personalized learning.


$\tau$-bench: A Benchmark for Tool-Agent-User Interaction in Real-World Domains

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Existing benchmarks do not test language agents on their interaction with human users or ability to follow domain-specific rules, both of which are vital for deploying them in real world applications. We propose $\tau$-bench, a benchmark emulating dynamic conversations between a user (simulated by language models) and a language agent provided with domain-specific API tools and policy guidelines. We employ an efficient and faithful evaluation process that compares the database state at the end of a conversation with the annotated goal state. We also propose a new metric (pass^k) to evaluate the reliability of agent behavior over multiple trials. Our experiments show that even state-of-the-art function calling agents (like gpt-4o) succeed on <50% of the tasks, and are quite inconsistent (pass^8 <25% in retail). Our findings point to the need for methods that can improve the ability of agents to act consistently and follow rules reliably.


X-Light: Cross-City Traffic Signal Control Using Transformer on Transformer as Meta Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learner

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The effectiveness of traffic light control has been significantly improved by current reinforcement learning-based approaches via better cooperation among multiple traffic lights. However, a persisting issue remains: how to obtain a multi-agent traffic signal control algorithm with remarkable transferability across diverse cities? In this paper, we propose a Transformer on Transformer (TonT) model for cross-city meta multi-agent traffic signal control, named as X-Light: We input the full Markov Decision Process trajectories, and the Lower Transformer aggregates the states, actions, rewards among the target intersection and its neighbors within a city, and the Upper Transformer learns the general decision trajectories across different cities. This dual-level approach bolsters the model's robust generalization and transferability. Notably, when directly transferring to unseen scenarios, ours surpasses all baseline methods with +7.91% on average, and even +16.3% in some cases, yielding the best results.


Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibrium for Crowd Navigation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Robots navigating in crowded areas should negotiate free space with humans rather than fully controlling collision avoidance, as this can lead to freezing behavior. Game theory provides a framework for the robot to reason about potential cooperation from humans for collision avoidance during path planning. In particular, the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium captures the negotiation behavior under uncertainty, making it well suited for crowd navigation. However, computing the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium is often prohibitively expensive for real-time decision-making. In this paper, we propose an iterative Bayesian update scheme over probability distributions of trajectories. The algorithm simultaneously generates a stochastic plan for the robot and probabilistic predictions of other pedestrians' paths. We prove that the proposed algorithm is equivalent to solving a mixed strategy game for crowd navigation, and the algorithm guarantees the recovery of the global Nash equilibrium of the game. We name our algorithm Bayes' Rule Nash Equilibrium (BRNE) and develop a real-time model prediction crowd navigation framework. Since BRNE is not solving a general-purpose mixed strategy Nash equilibrium but a tailored formula specifically for crowd navigation, it can compute the solution in real-time on a low-power embedded computer. We evaluate BRNE in both simulated environments and real-world pedestrian datasets. BRNE consistently outperforms non-learning and learning-based methods regarding safety and navigation efficiency. It also reaches human-level crowd navigation performance in the pedestrian dataset benchmark. Lastly, we demonstrate the practicality of our algorithm with real humans on an untethered quadruped robot with fully onboard perception and computation.


Reward Machines for Deep RL in Noisy and Uncertain Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Reward Machines provide an automata-inspired structure for specifying instructions, safety constraints, and other temporally extended reward-worthy behaviour. By exposing complex reward function structure, they enable counterfactual learning updates that have resulted in impressive sample efficiency gains. While Reward Machines have been employed in both tabular and deep RL settings, they have typically relied on a ground-truth interpretation of the domain-specific vocabulary that form the building blocks of the reward function. Such ground-truth interpretations can be elusive in many real-world settings, due in part to partial observability or noisy sensing. In this paper, we explore the use of Reward Machines for Deep RL in noisy and uncertain environments. We characterize this problem as a POMDP and propose a suite of RL algorithms that leverage task structure under uncertain interpretation of domain-specific vocabulary. Theoretical analysis exposes pitfalls in naive approaches to this problem, while experimental results show that our algorithms successfully leverage task structure to improve performance under noisy interpretations of the vocabulary. Our results provide a general framework for exploiting Reward Machines in partially observable environments.


Review and Prospect of Algebraic Research in Equivalent Framework between Statistical Mechanics and Machine Learning Theory

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Mathematical equivalence between statistical mechanics and machine learning theory has been known since the 20th century, and researches based on such equivalence have provided novel methodology in both theoretical physics and statistical learning theory. For example, algebraic approach in statistical mechanics such as operator algebra enables us to analyze phase transition phenomena mathematically. In this paper, for theoretical physicists who are interested in artificial intelligence, we review and prospect algebraic researches in machine learning theory. If a learning machine has hierarchical structure or latent variables, then the random Hamiltonian cannot be expressed by any quadratic perturbation because it has singularities. To study an equilibrium state defined by such a singular random Hamiltonian, algebraic approach is necessary to derive asymptotic form of the free energy and the generalization error. We also introduce the most recent advance, in fact, theoretical foundation for alignment of artificial intelligence is now being constructed based on algebraic learning theory. This paper is devoted to the memory of Professor Huzihiro Araki who is a pioneer founder of algebraic research in both statistical mechanics and quantum field theory.


Bayesian Networks and Machine Learning for COVID-19 Severity Explanation and Demographic Symptom Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

With the prevailing efforts to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, there are still uncertainties that are yet to be discovered about its spread, future impact, and resurgence. In this paper, we present a three-stage data-driven approach to distill the hidden information about COVID-19. The first stage employs a Bayesian network structure learning method to identify the causal relationships among COVID-19 symptoms and their intrinsic demographic variables. As a second stage, the output from the Bayesian network structure learning, serves as a useful guide to train an unsupervised machine learning (ML) algorithm that uncovers the similarities in patients' symptoms through clustering. The final stage then leverages the labels obtained from clustering to train a demographic symptom identification (DSID) model which predicts a patient's symptom class and the corresponding demographic probability distribution. We applied our method on the COVID-19 dataset obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the United States. Results from the experiments show a testing accuracy of 99.99%, as against the 41.15% accuracy of a heuristic ML method. This strongly reveals the viability of our Bayesian network and ML approach in understanding the relationship between the virus symptoms, and providing insights on patients' stratification towards reducing the severity of the virus.


Sparsity-Constraint Optimization via Splicing Iteration

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sparsity-constraint optimization has wide applicability in signal processing, statistics, and machine learning. Existing fast algorithms must burdensomely tune parameters, such as the step size or the implementation of precise stop criteria, which may be challenging to determine in practice. To address this issue, we develop an algorithm named Sparsity-Constraint Optimization via sPlicing itEration (SCOPE) to optimize nonlinear differential objective functions with strong convexity and smoothness in low dimensional subspaces. Algorithmically, the SCOPE algorithm converges effectively without tuning parameters. Theoretically, SCOPE has a linear convergence rate and converges to a solution that recovers the true support set when it correctly specifies the sparsity. We also develop parallel theoretical results without restricted-isometry-property-type conditions. We apply SCOPE's versatility and power to solve sparse quadratic optimization, learn sparse classifiers, and recover sparse Markov networks for binary variables. The numerical results on these specific tasks reveal that SCOPE perfectly identifies the true support set with a 10--1000 speedup over the standard exact solver, confirming SCOPE's algorithmic and theoretical merits. Our open-source Python package skscope based on C++ implementation is publicly available on GitHub, reaching a ten-fold speedup on the competing convex relaxation methods implemented by the cvxpy library.


Management Decisions in Manufacturing using Causal Machine Learning -- To Rework, or not to Rework?

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we present a data-driven model for estimating optimal rework policies in manufacturing systems. We consider a single production stage within a multistage, lot-based system that allows for optional rework steps. While the rework decision depends on an intermediate state of the lot and system, the final product inspection, and thus the assessment of the actual yield, is delayed until production is complete. Repair steps are applied uniformly to the lot, potentially improving some of the individual items while degrading others. The challenge is thus to balance potential yield improvement with the rework costs incurred. Given the inherently causal nature of this decision problem, we propose a causal model to estimate yield improvement. We apply methods from causal machine learning, in particular double/debiased machine learning (DML) techniques, to estimate conditional treatment effects from data and derive policies for rework decisions. We validate our decision model using real-world data from opto-electronic semiconductor manufacturing, achieving a yield improvement of 2 - 3% during the color-conversion process of white light-emitting diodes (LEDs).