The need for regression models to predict circular values arises in many scientific fields. In this work we explore a family of expressive and interpretable distributions over circle-valued random functions related to Gaussian processes targeting two Euclidean dimensions conditioned on the unit circle. The resulting probability model has connections with continuous spin models in statistical physics. Moreover, its density is very simple and has maximum-entropy, unlike previous Gaussian process-based approaches, which use wrapping or radial marginalization. For posterior inference, we introduce a new Stratonovich-like augmentation that lends itself to fast Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. We argue that transductive learning in these models favors a Bayesian approach to the parameters. We present experiments applying this model to the prediction of (i) wind directions and (ii) the percentage of the running gait cycle as a function of joint angles.

We propose C-LAIfO, a computationally efficient algorithm designed for imitation learning from videos, even in the presence of visual mismatch between agent and expert domains. We analyze the problem of imitation from expert videos with visual discrepancies, and introduce a solution for robust latent space estimation using contrastive learning and data augmentation. Provided a visually robust latent space, our algorithm performs imitation entirely within this space using off-policy adversarial imitation learning. We conduct a thorough ablation study to justify our design choices and test C-LAIfO on high-dimensional continuous robotic tasks. Additionally, we demonstrate how C-LAIfO can be combined with other reward signals to facilitate learning on a set of challenging hand manipulation tasks with sparse rewards. Our experiments show improved performance compared to baseline methods, highlighting the effectiveness and versatility of C-LAIfO. To ensure reproducibility, we provide open access to our code.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities, but still suffer from inconsistency issues (e.g. LLMs can react differently to disturbances like rephrasing or inconsequential order change). In addition to these inconsistencies, we also observe that LLMs, while capable of solving hard problems, can paradoxically fail at easier ones. To evaluate this hard-to-easy inconsistency, we develop the ConsisEval benchmark, where each entry comprises a pair of questions with a strict order of difficulty. Furthermore, we introduce the concept of consistency score to quantitatively measure this inconsistency and analyze the potential for improvement in consistency by relative consistency score. Based on comprehensive experiments across a variety of existing models, we find: (1) GPT-4 achieves the highest consistency score of 92.2\% but is still inconsistent to specific questions due to distraction by redundant information, misinterpretation of questions, etc.; (2) models with stronger capabilities typically exhibit higher consistency, but exceptions also exist; (3) hard data enhances consistency for both fine-tuning and in-context learning. Our data and code will be publicly available on GitHub.

Fast adaptation to new tasks is extremely important for embodied agents in the real world. Meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) has emerged as an effective method to enable fast adaptation in unknown environments. Compared to on-policy meta-RL algorithms, off-policy algorithms rely heavily on efficient data sampling strategies to extract and represent the historical trajectories. However, little is known about how different data sampling methods impact the ability of meta-RL agents to represent unknown environments. Here, we investigate the impact of data sampling strategies on the exploration and adaptability of meta-RL agents. Specifically, we conducted experiments with two types of off-policy meta-RL algorithms based on Thompson sampling and Bayes-optimality theories in continuous control tasks within the MuJoCo environment and sparse reward navigation tasks. Our analysis revealed the long-memory and short-memory sequence sampling strategies affect the representation and adaptive capabilities of meta-RL agents. We found that the algorithm based on Bayes-optimality theory exhibited more robust and better adaptability than the algorithm based on Thompson sampling, highlighting the importance of appropriate data sampling strategies for the agent's representation of an unknown environment, especially in the case of sparse rewards.

The problem of pure exploration in Markov decision processes has been cast as maximizing the entropy over the state distribution induced by the agent's policy, an objective that has been extensively studied. However, little attention has been dedicated to state entropy maximization under partial observability, despite the latter being ubiquitous in applications, e.g., finance and robotics, in which the agent only receives noisy observations of the true state governing the system's dynamics. How can we address state entropy maximization in those domains? In this paper, we study the simple approach of maximizing the entropy over observations in place of true latent states. First, we provide lower and upper bounds to the approximation of the true state entropy that only depends on some properties of the observation function. Then, we show how knowledge of the latter can be exploited to compute a principled regularization of the observation entropy to improve performance. With this work, we provide both a flexible approach to bring advances in state entropy maximization to the POMDP setting and a theoretical characterization of its intrinsic limits.

Accurate text summarization is one of the most common and important tasks performed by Large Language Models, where the costs of human review for an entire document may be high, but the costs of errors in summarization may be even greater. We propose Detecting Errors through Ensembling Prompts (DEEP) - an end-to-end large language model framework for detecting factual errors in text summarization. Our framework uses a diverse set of LLM prompts to identify factual inconsistencies, treating their outputs as binary features, which are then fed into ensembling models. We then calibrate the ensembled models to produce empirically accurate probabilities that a text is factually consistent or free of hallucination. We demonstrate that prior models for detecting factual errors in summaries perform significantly worse without optimizing the thresholds on subsets of the evaluated dataset. Our framework achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) balanced accuracy on the AggreFact-XSUM FTSOTA, TofuEval Summary-Level, and HaluEval Summarization benchmarks in detecting factual errors within transformer-generated text summaries. It does so without any fine-tuning of the language model or reliance on thresholding techniques not available in practical settings.

Variational Inference (VI) is a commonly used technique for approximate Bayesian inference and uncertainty estimation in deep learning models, yet it comes at a computational cost, as it doubles the number of trainable parameters to represent uncertainty. This rapidly becomes challenging in high-dimensional settings and motivates the use of alternative techniques for inference, such as Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) or Spectral-normalized Neural Gaussian Process (SNGP). However, such methods have seen little adoption in survival analysis, and VI remains the prevalent approach for training probabilistic neural networks. In this paper, we investigate how to train deep probabilistic survival models in large datasets without introducing additional overhead in model complexity. To achieve this, we adopt three probabilistic approaches, namely VI, MCD, and SNGP, and evaluate them in terms of their prediction performance, calibration performance, and model complexity. In the context of probabilistic survival analysis, we investigate whether non-VI techniques can offer comparable or possibly improved prediction performance and uncertainty calibration compared to VI. In the MIMIC-IV dataset, we find that MCD aligns with VI in terms of the concordance index (0.748 vs. 0.743) and mean absolute error (254.9 vs. 254.7) using hinge loss, while providing C-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Moreover, our SNGP implementation provides D-calibrated survival functions in all datasets compared to VI (4/4 vs. 2/4, respectively). Our work encourages the use of techniques alternative to VI for survival analysis in high-dimensional datasets, where computational efficiency and overhead are of concern.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has found application in Human Activity Recognition (HAR) in competitive sports. To date, most Machine Learning (ML) approaches for HAR have relied on offline (batch) training, imposing higher computational and tagging burdens compared to online processing unsupervised approaches. Additionally, the decisions behind traditional ML predictors are opaque and require human interpretation. In this work, we apply an online processing unsupervised clustering approach based on low-cost wearable Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs). The outcomes generated by the system allow for the automatic expansion of limited tagging available (e.g., by referees) within those clusters, producing pertinent information for the explainable classification stage. Specifically, our work focuses on achieving automatic explainability for predictions related to athletes' activities, distinguishing between correct, incorrect, and cheating practices in Nordic Walking. The proposed solution achieved performance metrics of close to 100 % on average.

To make accurate predictions, understand mechanisms, and design interventions in systems of many variables, we wish to learn causal graphs from large scale data. Unfortunately the space of all possible causal graphs is enormous so scalably and accurately searching for the best fit to the data is a challenge. In principle we could substantially decrease the search space, or learn the graph entirely, by testing the conditional independence of variables. However, deciding if two variables are adjacent in a causal graph may require an exponential number of tests. Here we build a scalable and flexible method to evaluate if two variables are adjacent in a causal graph, the Differentiable Adjacency Test (DAT). DAT replaces an exponential number of tests with a provably equivalent relaxed problem. It then solves this problem by training two neural networks. We build a graph learning method based on DAT, DAT-Graph, that can also learn from data with interventions. DAT-Graph can learn graphs of 1000 variables with state of the art accuracy. Using the graph learned by DAT-Graph, we also build models that make much more accurate predictions of the effects of interventions on large scale RNA sequencing data.

Recently, convolution neural networks (CNNs) have attracted a great deal of attention due to their remarkable performance in various domains, particularly in image and text classification tasks. However, their application to tabular data classification remains underexplored. There are many fields such as bioinformatics, finance, medicine where nonimage data are prevalent. Adaption of CNNs to classify nonimage data remains highly challenging. This paper investigates the efficacy of CNNs for tabular data classification, aiming to bridge the gap between traditional machine learning approaches and deep learning techniques. We propose a novel framework fuzzy convolution neural network (FCNN) tailored specifically for tabular data to capture local patterns within feature vectors. In our approach, we map feature values to fuzzy memberships. The fuzzy membership vectors are converted into images that are used to train the CNN model. The trained CNN model is used to classify unknown feature vectors. To validate our approach, we generated six complex noisy data sets. We used randomly selected seventy percent samples from each data set for training and thirty percent for testing. The data sets were also classified using the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms such as the decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM), fuzzy neural network (FNN), Bayes classifier, and Random Forest (RF). Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed model can effectively learn meaningful representations from tabular data, achieving competitive or superior performance compared to existing methods. Overall, our finding suggests that the proposed FCNN model holds promise as a viable alternative for tabular data classification tasks, offering a fresh prospective and potentially unlocking new opportunities for leveraging deep learning in structured data analysis.