Countless domains rely on Machine Learning (ML) models, including safety-critical domains, such as autonomous driving, which this paper focuses on. While the black box nature of ML is simply a nuisance in some domains, in safety-critical domains, this makes ML models difficult to trust. To fully utilize ML models in safety-critical domains, it would be beneficial to have a method to improve trust in model robustness and accuracy without human experts checking each decision. This research proposes a method to increase trust in ML models used in safety-critical domains by ensuring the robustness and completeness of the model's training dataset. Because ML models embody what they are trained with, ensuring the completeness of training datasets can help to increase the trust in the training of ML models. To this end, this paper proposes the use of a domain ontology and an image quality characteristic ontology to validate the domain completeness and image quality robustness of a training dataset. This research also presents an experiment as a proof of concept for this method, where ontologies are built for the emergency road vehicle domain.

Understanding causal models is important in a number of fields, from healthcare to economics, as it allows for precise forecasting a training of reinforcement learning. Learning causal models involves extracting potential non-linear relationships and dependencies between variables from sampled time-series. For example, modelling of biomarkers of non-communicable disase as a function of diet and action monitoring has shown the potential of being a powerful tool to guide the recommendations on healthy diet. We aim to learn causal models that extend basic causal models in several directions, which are relevant in biomedical appliations. In particular, such causal models need to handle nonlinear causality, such as the competition among bacterial strains for metabolites. Likewise, one may consider constraints that become active beyond certain thresholds. Dealing with latent variables, such as hormone concentrations, is a challenge that demands a balance between model complexity and interpretability. These models should also consider cyclic relationships, time-series dynamics, and mixture-model aspects, accommodating individual variations in metabolism without predefined subgroups.

The large-scale pre-trained neural network has achieved notable success in enhancing performance for downstream tasks. Another promising approach for generalization is Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), which integrates Bayesian methods into neural network architectures, offering advantages such as Bayesian Model averaging (BMA) and uncertainty quantification. Despite these benefits, transfer learning for BNNs has not been widely investigated and shows limited improvement. We hypothesize that this issue arises from the inability to find flat minima, which is crucial for generalization performance. To address this, we evaluate the sharpness of BNNs in various settings, revealing their insufficiency in seeking flat minima and the influence of flatness on BMA performance. Therefore, we propose Sharpness-aware Bayesian Model Averaging (SA-BMA), a Bayesian-fitting flat posterior seeking optimizer integrated with Bayesian transfer learning. SA-BMA calculates the divergence between posteriors in the parameter space, aligning with the nature of BNNs, and serves as a generalized version of existing sharpness-aware optimizers. We validate that SA-BMA improves generalization performance in few-shot classification and distribution shift scenarios by ensuring flatness.

This paper presents a novel approach to address the challenging problem of autonomous on-ramp merging, where a self-driving vehicle needs to seamlessly integrate into a flow of vehicles on a multi-lane highway. We introduce the Lane-keeping, Lane-changing with Latent-state Inference and Safety Controller (L3IS) agent, designed to perform the on-ramp merging task safely without comprehensive knowledge about surrounding vehicles' intents or driving styles. We also present an augmentation of this agent called AL3IS that accounts for observation delays, allowing the agent to make more robust decisions in real-world environments with vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication delays. By modeling the unobservable aspects of the environment through latent states, such as other drivers' intents, our approach enhances the agent's ability to adapt to dynamic traffic conditions, optimize merging maneuvers, and ensure safe interactions with other vehicles. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through extensive simulations generated from real traffic data and compare its performance with existing approaches. L3IS shows a 99.90% success rate in a challenging on-ramp merging case generated from the real US Highway 101 data. We further perform a sensitivity analysis on AL3IS to evaluate its robustness against varying observation delays, which demonstrates an acceptable performance of 93.84% success rate in 1-second V2V communication delay.

We study the question: How can we select the right data for fine-tuning to a specific task? We call this data selection problem active fine-tuning and show that it is an instance of transductive active learning, a novel generalization of classical active learning. We propose ITL, short for information-based transductive learning, an approach which samples adaptively to maximize information gained about the specified task. We are the first to show, under general regularity assumptions, that such decision rules converge uniformly to the smallest possible uncertainty obtainable from the accessible data. We apply ITL to the few-shot fine-tuning of large neural networks and show that fine-tuning with ITL learns the task with significantly fewer examples than the state-of-the-art.

With the growing use of voice-activated systems and speech recognition technologies, the danger of backdoor attacks on audio data has grown significantly. This research looks at a specific type of attack, known as a Stochastic investment-based backdoor attack (MarketBack), in which adversaries strategically manipulate the stylistic properties of audio to fool speech recognition systems. The security and integrity of machine learning models are seriously threatened by backdoor attacks, in order to maintain the reliability of audio applications and systems, the identification of such attacks becomes crucial in the context of audio data. Experimental results demonstrated that MarketBack is feasible to achieve an average attack success rate close to 100% in seven victim models when poisoning less than 1% of the training data.

Building prediction intervals for time series forecasting problems presents a complex challenge, particularly when relying solely on point predictors, a common scenario for practitioners in the industry. While research has primarily focused on achieving increasingly efficient valid intervals, we argue that, when evaluating a set of intervals, traditional measures alone are insufficient. There are additional crucial characteristics: the intervals must vary in length, with this variation directly linked to the difficulty of the prediction, and the coverage of the interval must remain independent of the difficulty of the prediction for practical utility. We propose the Heteroscedastic Quantile Regression (HQR) model and the Width-Adaptive Conformal Inference (WACI) method, providing theoretical coverage guarantees, to overcome those issues, respectively. The methodologies are evaluated in the context of Electricity Price Forecasting and Wind Power Forecasting, representing complex scenarios in time series forecasting. The results demonstrate that HQR and WACI not only improve or achieve typical measures of validity and efficiency but also successfully fulfil the commonly ignored mentioned characteristics.

There has been a growing interest in causal learning in recent years. Commonly used representations of causal structures, including Bayesian networks and structural equation models (SEM), take the form of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). We provide a novel mixed-integer quadratic programming formulation and associated algorithm that identifies DAGs on up to 50 vertices, where these are identifiable. We call this method ExDAG, which stands for Exact learning of DAGs. Although there is a superexponential number of constraints that prevent the formation of cycles, the algorithm adds constraints violated by solutions found, rather than imposing all constraints in each continuous-valued relaxation. Our empirical results show that ExDAG outperforms local state-of-the-art solvers in terms of precision and outperforms state-of-the-art global solvers with respect to scaling, when considering Gaussian noise. We also provide validation with respect to other noise distributions.

Causal Bayesian networks are widely used tools for summarising the dependencies between variables and elucidating their putative causal relationships. Learning networks from data is computationally hard in general. The current state-of-the-art approaches for exact causal discovery are integer linear programming over the underlying space of directed acyclic graphs, dynamic programming and shortest-path searches over the space of topological orders, and constraint programming combining both. For dynamic programming over orders, the computational complexity is known to be exponential base 2 in the number of variables in the network. We demonstrate how to use properties of Bayesian networks to prune the search space and lower the computational cost, while still guaranteeing exact discovery. When including new path-search and divide-and-conquer criteria, we prove optimality in quadratic time for matchings, and polynomial time for any network class with logarithmically-bound largest connected components. In simulation studies we observe the polynomial dependence for sparse networks and that, beyond some critical value, the logarithm of the base grows with the network density. Our approach then out-competes the state-of-the-art at lower densities. These results therefore pave the way for faster exact causal discovery in larger and sparser networks.

In this paper, we develop a decision support system for the hierarchical text classification. We consider text collections with a fixed hierarchical structure of topics given by experts in the form of a tree. The system sorts the topics by relevance to a given document. The experts choose one of the most relevant topics to finish the classification. We propose a weighted hierarchical similarity function to calculate topic relevance. The function calculates the similarity of a document and a tree branch. The weights in this function determine word importance. We use the entropy of words to estimate the weights. The proposed hierarchical similarity function formulates a joint hierarchical thematic classification probability model of the document topics, parameters, and hyperparameters. The variational Bayesian inference gives a closed-form EM algorithm. The EM algorithm estimates the parameters and calculates the probability of a topic for a given document. Compared to hierarchical multiclass SVM, hierarchical PLSA with adaptive regularization, and hierarchical naive Bayes, the weighted hierarchical similarity function has better improvement in ranking accuracy in an abstract collection of a major conference EURO and a website collection of industrial companies.