Determining the chronology of ancient handwritten manuscripts is essential for reconstructing the evolution of ideas. For the Dead Sea Scrolls, this is particularly important. However, there is an almost complete lack of date-bearing manuscripts evenly distributed across the timeline and written in similar scripts available for palaeographic comparison. Here, we present Enoch, a state-of-the-art AI-based date-prediction model, trained on the basis of new radiocarbon-dated samples of the scrolls. Enoch uses established handwriting-style descriptors and applies Bayesian ridge regression. The challenge of this study is that the number of radiocarbon-dated manuscripts is small, while current machine learning requires an abundance of training data. We show that by using combined angular and allographic writing style feature vectors and applying Bayesian ridge regression, Enoch could predict the radiocarbon-based dates from style, supported by leave-one-out validation, with varied MAEs of 27.9 to 30.7 years relative to the radiocarbon dating. Enoch was then used to estimate the dates of 135 unseen manuscripts, revealing that 79 per cent of the samples were considered 'realistic' upon palaeographic post-hoc evaluation. We present a new chronology of the scrolls. The radiocarbon ranges and Enoch's style-based predictions are often older than the traditionally assumed palaeographic estimates. In the range of 300-50 BCE, Enoch's date prediction provides an improved granularity. The study is in line with current developments in multimodal machine-learning techniques, and the methods can be used for date prediction in other partially-dated manuscript collections. This research shows how Enoch's quantitative, probability-based approach can be a tool for palaeographers and historians, re-dating ancient Jewish key texts and contributing to current debates on Jewish and Christian origins.

In many real-world decision problems there is partially observed, hidden or latent information that remains fixed throughout an interaction. Such decision problems can be modeled as Latent Markov Decision Processes (LMDPs), where a latent variable is selected at the beginning of an interaction and is not disclosed to the agent. In the last decade, there has been significant progress in solving LMDPs under different structural assumptions. However, for general LMDPs, there is no known learning algorithm that provably matches the existing lower bound (Kwon et al., 2021). We introduce the first sample-efficient algorithm for LMDPs without any additional structural assumptions. Our result builds off a new perspective on the role of off-policy evaluation guarantees and coverage coefficients in LMDPs, a perspective, that has been overlooked in the context of exploration in partially observed environments. Specifically, we establish a novel off-policy evaluation lemma and introduce a new coverage coefficient for LMDPs. Then, we show how these can be used to derive near-optimal guarantees of an optimistic exploration algorithm. These results, we believe, can be valuable for a wide range of interactive learning problems beyond LMDPs, and especially, for partially observed environments.

Automatic speech recognition (ASR) is a key area in computational linguistics, focusing on developing technologies that enable computers to convert spoken language into text. This field combines linguistics and machine learning. ASR models, which map speech audio to transcripts through supervised learning, require handling real and unrestricted text. Text-to-speech systems directly work with real text, while ASR systems rely on language models trained on large text corpora. High-quality transcribed data is essential for training predictive models. The research involved two main components: developing a web application and designing a web interface for speech recognition. The web application, created with JavaScript and Node.js, manages large volumes of audio files and their transcriptions, facilitating collaborative human correction of ASR transcripts. It operates in real-time using a client-server architecture. The web interface for speech recognition records 16 kHz mono audio from any device running the web app, performs voice activity detection (VAD), and sends the audio to the recognition engine. VAD detects human speech presence, aiding efficient speech processing and reducing unnecessary processing during non-speech intervals, thus saving computation and network bandwidth in VoIP applications. The final phase of the research tested a neural network for accurately aligning the speech signal to hidden Markov model (HMM) states. This included implementing a novel backpropagation method that utilizes prior statistics of node co-activations.

Filtering and annotating textual data are routine tasks in many areas, like social media or news analytics. Automating these tasks allows to scale the analyses wrt. speed and breadth of content covered and decreases the manual effort required. Due to technical advancements in Natural Language Processing, specifically the success of large foundation models, a new tool for automating such annotation processes by using a text-to-text interface given written guidelines without providing training samples has become available. In this work, we assess these advancements in-the-wild by empirically testing them in an annotation task on German Twitter data about social and political European crises. We compare the prompt-based results with our human annotation and preceding classification approaches, including Naive Bayes and a BERT-based fine-tuning/domain adaptation pipeline. Our results show that the prompt-based approach - despite being limited by local computation resources during the model selection - is comparable with the fine-tuned BERT but without any annotated training data. Our findings emphasize the ongoing paradigm shift in the NLP landscape, i.e., the unification of downstream tasks and elimination of the need for pre-labeled training data.

In reinforcement learning (RL), agents aim to learn an optim al policy that maximizes the expected total rewards, by actively interacting with an unknown environment. However, online data collection may be prohibitively expensive or potentially risky in many real-wor ld applications, e.g., autonomous driving ( Gu et al., 2022), healthcare ( Yu et al., 2021), and wireless security ( Uprety and Rawat, 2020). This motivates the study of offline RL, which leverages existing historical data (aka batch data) collected in the past to improve policy learning, and has attracted growing attention ( Levine et al., 2020). Nonetheless, the performance of the learned policy invoking standard offline RL techniques co uld drop dramatically when the deployed environment shifts from the one experienced by the historical da ta even slightly, necessitating the development of robust RL algorithms that are resilient against environm ental uncertainty. In response, recent years have witnessed a surge of interest s in distributionally robust offline RL ( Zhou et al., 2021b; Yang et al., 2022; Shi and Chi, 2022; Blanchet et al., 2024). In particular, given only historical data from a nominal environment, distributionally robust offline RL aims to learn a policy that optimizes the worst-case performance when the environment falls into some prescribed uncertaint y set around the nominal one. Such a framework ensures that the performance of the lea rned policy does not fail drastically, provided that the distribution shift between the nominal and deployment environments is not exce ssively large. Nevertheless, most existing provable algorithms in distri butionally robust offline RL only focus on the tabular setting with finite state and action spaces ( Zhou et al., 2021b; Yang et al., 2022; Shi and Chi, 2022), where the sample complexity scales linearly with the size of the state-action space, which is prohibitive when the problem is high-dimensional.

We consider an on-line least squares regression problem with optimal solution $\theta^*$ and Hessian matrix H, and study a time-average stochastic gradient descent estimator of $\theta^*$. For $k\ge2$, we provide an unbiased estimator of $\theta^*$ that is a modification of the time-average estimator, runs with an expected number of time-steps of order k, with O(1/k) expected excess risk. The constant behind the O notation depends on parameters of the regression and is a poly-logarithmic function of the smallest eigenvalue of H. We provide both a biased and unbiased estimator of the expected excess risk of the time-average estimator and of its unbiased counterpart, without requiring knowledge of either H or $\theta^*$. We describe an "average-start" version of our estimators with similar properties. Our approach is based on randomized multilevel Monte Carlo. Our numerical experiments confirm our theoretical findings.

Simulation-based methods for statistical inference have evolved dramatically over the past 50 years, keeping pace with technological advancements. The field is undergoing a new revolution as it embraces the representational capacity of neural networks, optimisation libraries and graphics processing units for learning complex mappings between data and inferential targets. The resulting tools are amortised, in the sense that they allow rapid inference through fast feedforward operations. In this article we review recent progress in the context of point estimation, approximate Bayesian inference, summary-statistic construction, and likelihood approximation. We also cover software, and include a simple illustration to showcase the wide array of tools available for amortised inference and the benefits they offer over Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The article concludes with an overview of relevant topics and an outlook on future research directions.

There remain numerous unanswered research questions on deep learning (DL) within the classical learning theory framework. These include the remarkable generalization capabilities of overparametrized neural networks (NNs), the efficient optimization performance despite non-convexity of objectives, the mechanism of flat minima for generalization, and the exceptional performance of deep architectures in solving physical problems. This paper introduces General Distribution Learning (GD Learning), a novel theoretical learning framework designed to address a comprehensive range of machine learning and statistical tasks, including classification, regression and parameter estimation. Departing from traditional statistical machine learning, GD Learning focuses on the true underlying distribution. In GD Learning, learning error, corresponding to the expected error in classical statistical learning framework, is divided into fitting errors due to models and algorithms, as well as sampling errors introduced by limited sampling data. The framework significantly incorporates prior knowledge, especially in scenarios characterized by data scarcity, thereby enhancing performance. Within the GD Learning framework, we demonstrate that the global optimal solutions in non-convex optimization can be approached by minimizing the gradient norm and the non-uniformity of the eigenvalues of the model's Jacobian matrix. This insight leads to the development of the gradient structure control algorithm. GD Learning also offers fresh insights into the questions on deep learning, including overparameterization and non-convex optimization, bias-variance trade-off, and the mechanism of flat minima.

In settings where only a budgeted amount of labeled data can be afforded, active learning seeks to devise query strategies for selecting the most informative data points to be labeled, aiming to enhance learning algorithms' efficiency and performance. Numerous such query strategies have been proposed and compared in the active learning literature. However, the community still lacks standardized benchmarks for comparing the performance of different query strategies. This particularly holds for the combination of query strategies with different learning algorithms into active learning pipelines and examining the impact of the learning algorithm choice. To close this gap, we propose ALPBench, which facilitates the specification, execution, and performance monitoring of active learning pipelines. It has built-in measures to ensure evaluations are done reproducibly, saving exact dataset splits and hyperparameter settings of used algorithms. In total, ALPBench consists of 86 real-world tabular classification datasets and 5 active learning settings, yielding 430 active learning problems. To demonstrate its usefulness and broad compatibility with various learning algorithms and query strategies, we conduct an exemplary study evaluating 9 query strategies paired with 8 learning algorithms in 2 different settings.

A reliable knowledge structure is a prerequisite for building effective adaptive learning systems and intelligent tutoring systems. Pursuing an explainable and trustworthy knowledge structure, we propose a method for constructing causal knowledge networks. This approach leverages Bayesian networks as a foundation and incorporates causal relationship analysis to derive a causal network. Additionally, we introduce a dependable knowledge-learning path recommendation technique built upon this framework, improving teaching and learning quality while maintaining transparency in the decision-making process.