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 Learning Graphical Models


Optimal Kernel Choice for Score Function-based Causal Discovery

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Score-based methods have demonstrated their effectiveness in discovering causal relationships by scoring different causal structures based on their goodness of fit to the data. Recently, Huang et al. proposed a generalized score function that can handle general data distributions and causal relationships by modeling the relations in reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). The selection of an appropriate kernel within this score function is crucial for accurately characterizing causal relationships and ensuring precise causal discovery. However, the current method involves manual heuristic selection of kernel parameters, making the process tedious and less likely to ensure optimality. In this paper, we propose a kernel selection method within the generalized score function that automatically selects the optimal kernel that best fits the data. Specifically, we model the generative process of the variables involved in each step of the causal graph search procedure as a mixture of independent noise variables. Based on this model, we derive an automatic kernel selection method by maximizing the marginal likelihood of the variables involved in each search step. We conduct experiments on both synthetic data and real-world benchmarks, and the results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms heuristic kernel selection methods.


Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Direction of Sound In A Reverberant Noisy Environment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We describe a new method for estimating the direction of sound in a reverberant environment from basic principles of sound propagation. The method utilizes SNR-adaptive features from time-delay and energy of the directional components after acoustic wave decomposition of the observed sound field to estimate the line-of-sight direction under noisy and reverberant conditions. The effectiveness of the approach is established with measured data of different microphone array configurations under various usage scenarios.


Augmented prediction of a true class for Positive Unlabeled data under selection bias

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a new observational setting for Positive Unlabeled (PU) data where the observations at prediction time are also labeled. This occurs commonly in practice -- we argue that the additional information is important for prediction, and call this task "augmented PU prediction". We allow for labeling to be feature dependent. In such scenario, Bayes classifier and its risk is established and compared with a risk of a classifier which for unlabeled data is based only on predictors. We introduce several variants of the empirical Bayes rule in such scenario and investigate their performance. We emphasise dangers (and ease) of applying classical classification rule in the augmented PU scenario -- due to no preexisting studies, an unaware researcher is prone to skewing the obtained predictions. We conclude that the variant based on recently proposed variational autoencoder designed for PU scenario works on par or better than other considered variants and yields advantage over feature-only based methods in terms of accuracy for unlabeled samples.


Weighted Aggregation of Conformity Scores for Classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conformal prediction is a powerful framework for constructing prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees in multi-class classification. However, existing methods often rely on a single score function, which can limit their efficiency and informativeness. We propose a novel approach that combines multiple score functions to improve the performance of conformal predictors by identifying optimal weights that minimize prediction set size. Our theoretical analysis establishes a connection between the weighted score functions and subgraph classes of functions studied in Vapnik-Chervonenkis theory, providing a rigorous mathematical basis for understanding the effectiveness of the proposed method. Experiments demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms single-score conformal predictors while maintaining valid coverage, offering a principled and data-driven way to enhance the efficiency and practicality of conformal prediction in classification tasks.


Generating In-store Customer Journeys from Scratch with GPT Architectures

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a method that can generate customer trajectories and purchasing behaviors in retail stores simultaneously using Transformer-based deep learning structure. Utilizing customer trajectory data, layout diagrams, and retail scanner data obtained from a retail store, we trained a GPT-2 architecture from scratch to generate indoor trajectories and purchase actions. Additionally, we explored the effectiveness of fine-tuning the pre-trained model with data from another store. Results demonstrate that our method reproduces in-store trajectories and purchase behaviors more accurately than LSTM and SVM models, with fine-tuning significantly reducing the required training data.


On the Importance of Uncertainty in Decision-Making with Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We investigate the role of uncertainty in decision-making problems with natural language as input. For such tasks, using Large Language Models as agents has become the norm. However, none of the recent approaches employ any additional phase for estimating the uncertainty the agent has about the world during the decision-making task. We focus on a fundamental decision-making framework with natural language as input, which is the one of contextual bandits, where the context information consists of text. As a representative of the approaches with no uncertainty estimation, we consider an LLM agent with a greedy policy, which picks the action corresponding to the largest predicted reward. We compare this baseline to LLM agents that make active use of uncertainty estimation by integrating the uncertainty in a Thompson Sampling policy. We employ different techniques for uncertainty estimation, such as Laplace Approximation, Dropout, and Epinets. We empirically show on real-world data that the greedy policy performs worse than the Thompson Sampling policies. These findings suggest that, while overlooked in the LLM literature, uncertainty improves performance on bandit tasks with LLM agents.


Model-free Distortion Canceling and Control of Quantum Devices

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quantum devices need precise control to achieve their full capability. In this work, we address the problem of controlling closed quantum systems, tackling two main issues. First, in practice the control signals are usually subject to unknown classical distortions that could arise from the device fabrication, material properties and/or instruments generating those signals. Second, in most cases modeling the system is very difficult or not even viable due to uncertainties in the relations between some variables and inaccessibility to some measurements inside the system. In this paper, we introduce a general model-free control approach based on deep reinforcement learning (DRL), that can work for any closed quantum system. We train a deep neural network (NN), using the REINFORCE policy gradient algorithm to control the state probability distribution of a closed quantum system as it evolves, and drive it to different target distributions. We present a novel controller architecture that comprises multiple NNs. This enables accommodating as many different target state distributions as desired, without increasing the complexity of the NN or its training process. The used DRL algorithm works whether the control problem can be modeled as a Markov decision process (MDP) or a partially observed MDP. Our method is valid whether the control signals are discrete- or continuous-valued. We verified our method through numerical simulations based on a photonic waveguide array chip. We trained a controller to generate sequences of different target output distributions of the chip with fidelity higher than 99%, where the controller showed superior performance in canceling the classical signal distortions.


SensEmo: Enabling Affective Learning through Real-time Emotion Recognition with Smartwatches

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent research has demonstrated the capability of physiological signals to infer both user emotional and attention responses. This presents an opportunity for leveraging widely available physiological sensors in smartwatches, to detect real-time emotional cues in users, such as stress and excitement. In this paper, we introduce SensEmo, a smartwatch-based system designed for affective learning. SensEmo utilizes multiple physiological sensor data, including heart rate and galvanic skin response, to recognize a student's motivation and concentration levels during class. This recognition is facilitated by a personalized emotion recognition model that predicts emotional states based on degrees of valence and arousal. With real-time emotion and attention feedback from students, we design a Markov decision process-based algorithm to enhance student learning effectiveness and experience by by offering suggestions to the teacher regarding teaching content and pacing. We evaluate SensEmo with 22 participants in real-world classroom environments. Evaluation results show that SensEmo recognizes student emotion with an average of 88.9% accuracy. More importantly, SensEmo assists students to achieve better online learning outcomes, e.g., an average of 40.0% higher grades in quizzes, over the traditional learning without student emotional feedback.


Global Reinforcement Learning: Beyond Linear and Convex Rewards via Submodular Semi-gradient Methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In classic Reinforcement Learning (RL), the agent maximizes an additive objective of the visited states, e.g., a value function. Unfortunately, objectives of this type cannot model many real-world applications such as experiment design, exploration, imitation learning, and risk-averse RL to name a few. This is due to the fact that additive objectives disregard interactions between states that are crucial for certain tasks. To tackle this problem, we introduce Global RL (GRL), where rewards are globally defined over trajectories instead of locally over states. Global rewards can capture negative interactions among states, e.g., in exploration, via submodularity, positive interactions, e.g., synergetic effects, via supermodularity, while mixed interactions via combinations of them. By exploiting ideas from submodular optimization, we propose a novel algorithmic scheme that converts any GRL problem to a sequence of classic RL problems and solves it efficiently with curvature-dependent approximation guarantees. We also provide hardness of approximation results and empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on several GRL instances.


Scalability of Bayesian Network Structure Elicitation with Large Language Models: a Novel Methodology and Comparative Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we propose a novel method for Bayesian Networks (BNs) structure elicitation that is based on the initialization of several LLMs with different experiences, independently querying them to create a structure of the BN, and further obtaining the final structure by majority voting. We compare the method with one alternative method on various widely and not widely known BNs of different sizes and study the scalability of both methods on them. We also propose an approach to check the contamination of BNs in LLM, which shows that some widely known BNs are inapplicable for testing the LLM usage for BNs structure elicitation. We also show that some BNs may be inapplicable for such experiments because their node names are indistinguishable. The experiments on the other BNs show that our method performs better than the existing method with one of the three studied LLMs; however, the performance of both methods significantly decreases with the increase in BN size.