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 Learning Graphical Models


Enhancing Microgrid Performance Prediction with Attention-based Deep Learning Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this research, an effort is made to address microgrid systems' operational challenges, characterized by power oscillations that eventually contribute to grid instability. An integrated strategy is proposed, leveraging the strengths of convolutional and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) layers. This approach is aimed at effectively extracting temporal data from energy datasets to improve the precision of microgrid behavior forecasts. Additionally, an attention layer is employed to underscore significant features within the time-series data, optimizing the forecasting process. The framework is anchored by a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model, which is tasked with comprehensive load forecasting and the identification of abnormal grid behaviors. Our methodology underwent rigorous evaluation using the Micro-grid Tariff Assessment Tool dataset, with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the coefficient of determination (r2-score) serving as the primary metrics. The approach demonstrated exemplary performance, evidenced by a MAE of 0.39, RMSE of 0.28, and an r2-score of 98.89\% in load forecasting, along with near-perfect zero state prediction accuracy (approximately 99.9\%). Significantly outperforming conventional machine learning models such as support vector regression and random forest regression, our model's streamlined architecture is particularly suitable for real-time applications, thereby facilitating more effective and reliable microgrid management.


Is Behavior Cloning All You Need? Understanding Horizon in Imitation Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Imitation learning (IL) aims to mimic the behavior of an expert in a sequential decision making task by learning from demonstrations, and has been widely applied to robotics, autonomous driving, and autoregressive text generation. The simplest approach to IL, behavior cloning (BC), is thought to incur sample complexity with unfavorable quadratic dependence on the problem horizon, motivating a variety of different online algorithms that attain improved linear horizon dependence under stronger assumptions on the data and the learner's access to the expert. We revisit the apparent gap between offline and online IL from a learning-theoretic perspective, with a focus on general policy classes up to and including deep neural networks. Through a new analysis of behavior cloning with the logarithmic loss, we show that it is possible to achieve horizon-independent sample complexity in offline IL whenever (i) the range of the cumulative payoffs is controlled, and (ii) an appropriate notion of supervised learning complexity for the policy class is controlled. Specializing our results to deterministic, stationary policies, we show that the gap between offline and online IL is not fundamental: (i) it is possible to achieve linear dependence on horizon in offline IL under dense rewards (matching what was previously only known to be achievable in online IL); and (ii) without further assumptions on the policy class, online IL cannot improve over offline IL with the logarithmic loss, even in benign MDPs. We complement our theoretical results with experiments on standard RL tasks and autoregressive language generation to validate the practical relevance of our findings.


Hyperspectral Unmixing Under Endmember Variability: A Variational Inference Framework

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work proposes a variational inference (VI) framework for hyperspectral unmixing in the presence of endmember variability (HU-EV). An EV-accounted noisy linear mixture model (LMM) is considered, and the presence of outliers is also incorporated into the model. Following the marginalized maximum likelihood (MML) principle, a VI algorithmic structure is designed for probabilistic inference for HU-EV. Specifically, a patch-wise static endmember assumption is employed to exploit spatial smoothness and to try to overcome the ill-posed nature of the HU-EV problem. The design facilitates lightweight, continuous optimization-based updates under a variety of endmember priors. Some of the priors, such as the Beta prior, were previously used under computationally heavy, sampling-based probabilistic HU-EV methods. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated through synthetic, semi-real, and real-data experiments.


Automatic Real-word Error Correction in Persian Text

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Automatic spelling correction stands as a pivotal challenge within the ambit of natural language processing (NLP), demanding nuanced solutions. Traditional spelling correction techniques are typically only capable of detecting and correcting non-word errors, such as typos and misspellings. However, context-sensitive errors, also known as real-word errors, are more challenging to detect because they are valid words that are used incorrectly in a given context. The Persian language, characterized by its rich morphology and complex syntax, presents formidable challenges to automatic spelling correction systems. Furthermore, the limited availability of Persian language resources makes it difficult to train effective spelling correction models. This paper introduces a cutting-edge approach for precise and efficient real-word error correction in Persian text. Our methodology adopts a structured, multi-tiered approach, employing semantic analysis, feature selection, and advanced classifiers to enhance error detection and correction efficacy. The innovative architecture discovers and stores semantic similarities between words and phrases in Persian text. The classifiers accurately identify real-word errors, while the semantic ranking algorithm determines the most probable corrections for real-word errors, taking into account specific spelling correction and context properties such as context, semantic similarity, and edit-distance measures. Evaluations have demonstrated that our proposed method surpasses previous Persian real-word error correction models. Our method achieves an impressive F-measure of 96.6% in the detection phase and an accuracy of 99.1% in the correction phase. These results clearly indicate that our approach is a highly promising solution for automatic real-word error correction in Persian text.


Causal Inference with Complex Treatments: A Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal inference plays an important role in explanatory analysis and decision making across various fields like statistics, marketing, health care, and education. Its main task is to estimate treatment effects and make intervention policies. Traditionally, most of the previous works typically focus on the binary treatment setting that there is only one treatment for a unit to adopt or not. However, in practice, the treatment can be much more complex, encompassing multi-valued, continuous, or bundle options. In this paper, we refer to these as complex treatments and systematically and comprehensively review the causal inference methods for addressing them. First, we formally revisit the problem definition, the basic assumptions, and their possible variations under specific conditions. Second, we sequentially review the related methods for multi-valued, continuous, and bundled treatment settings. In each situation, we tentatively divide the methods into two categories: those conforming to the unconfoundedness assumption and those violating it. Subsequently, we discuss the available datasets and open-source codes. Finally, we provide a brief summary of these works and suggest potential directions for future research.


On Policy Evaluation Algorithms in Distributional Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a novel class of algorithms to efficiently approximate the unknown return distributions in policy evaluation problems from distributional reinforcement learning (DRL). The proposed distributional dynamic programming algorithms are suitable for underlying Markov decision processes (MDPs) having an arbitrary probabilistic reward mechanism, including continuous reward distributions with unbounded support being potentially heavy-tailed. For a plain instance of our proposed class of algorithms we prove error bounds, both within Wasserstein and Kolmogorov--Smirnov distances. Furthermore, for return distributions having probability density functions the algorithms yield approximations for these densities; error bounds are given within supremum norm. We introduce the concept of quantile-spline discretizations to come up with algorithms showing promising results in simulation experiments. While the performance of our algorithms can rigorously be analysed they can be seen as universal black box algorithms applicable to a large class of MDPs. We also derive new properties of probability metrics commonly used in DRL on which our quantitative analysis is based.


Quantifying the value of positive transfer: An experimental case study

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In traditional approaches to structural health monitoring, challenges often arise associated with the availability of labelled data. Population-based structural health monitoring seeks to overcomes these challenges by leveraging data/information from similar structures via technologies such as transfer learning. The current paper demonstrate a methodology for quantifying the value of information transfer in the context of operation and maintenance decision-making. This demonstration, based on a population of laboratory-scale aircraft models, highlights the steps required to evaluate the expected value of information transfer including similarity assessment and prediction of transfer efficacy. Once evaluated for a given population, the value of information transfer can be used to optimise transfer-learning strategies for newly-acquired target domains.


Integrated Push-and-Pull Update Model for Goal-Oriented Effective Communication

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper studies decision-making for goal-oriented effective communication. We consider an end-to-end status update system where a sensing agent (SA) observes a source, generates and transmits updates to an actuation agent (AA), while the AA takes actions to accomplish a goal at the endpoint. We integrate the push- and pull-based update communication models to obtain a push-and-pull model, which allows the transmission controller at the SA to decide to push an update to the AA and the query controller at the AA to pull updates by raising queries at specific time instances. To gauge effectiveness, we utilize a grade of effectiveness (GoE) metric incorporating updates' freshness, usefulness, and timeliness of actions as qualitative attributes. We then derive effect-aware policies to maximize the expected discounted sum of updates' effectiveness subject to induced costs. The effect-aware policy at the SA considers the potential effectiveness of communicated updates at the endpoint, while at the AA, it accounts for the probabilistic evolution of the source and importance of generated updates. Our results show the proposed push-and-pull model outperforms models solely based on push- or pull-based updates both in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. Additionally, using effect-aware policies at both agents enhances effectiveness compared to periodic and/or probabilistic effect-agnostic policies at either or both agents.


Downstream-Pretext Domain Knowledge Traceback for Active Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Active learning (AL) is designed to construct a high-quality labeled dataset by iteratively selecting the most informative samples. Such sampling heavily relies on data representation, while recently pre-training is popular for robust feature learning. However, as pre-training utilizes low-level pretext tasks that lack annotation, directly using pre-trained representation in AL is inadequate for determining the sampling score. To address this problem, we propose a downstream-pretext domain knowledge traceback (DOKT) method that traces the data interactions of downstream knowledge and pre-training guidance for selecting diverse and instructive samples near the decision boundary. DOKT consists of a traceback diversity indicator and a domain-based uncertainty estimator. The diversity indicator constructs two feature spaces based on the pre-training pretext model and the downstream knowledge from annotation, by which it locates the neighbors of unlabeled data from the downstream space in the pretext space to explore the interaction of samples. With this mechanism, DOKT unifies the data relations of low-level and high-level representations to estimate traceback diversity. Next, in the uncertainty estimator, domain mixing is designed to enforce perceptual perturbing to unlabeled samples with similar visual patches in the pretext space. Then the divergence of perturbed samples is measured to estimate the domain uncertainty. As a result, DOKT selects the most diverse and important samples based on these two modules. The experiments conducted on ten datasets show that our model outperforms other state-of-the-art methods and generalizes well to various application scenarios such as semantic segmentation and image captioning.


A deep latent variable model for semi-supervised multi-unit soft sensing in industrial processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In many industrial processes, an apparent lack of data limits the development of data-driven soft sensors. There are, however, often opportunities to learn stronger models by being more data-efficient. To achieve this, one can leverage knowledge about the data from which the soft sensor is learned. Taking advantage of properties frequently possessed by industrial data, we introduce a deep latent variable model for semi-supervised multi-unit soft sensing. This hierarchical, generative model is able to jointly model different units, as well as learning from both labeled and unlabeled data. An empirical study of multi-unit soft sensing is conducted using two datasets: a synthetic dataset of single-phase fluid flow, and a large, real dataset of multi-phase flow in oil and gas wells. We show that by combining semi-supervised and multi-task learning, the proposed model achieves superior results, outperforming current leading methods for this soft sensing problem. We also show that when a model has been trained on a multi-unit dataset, it may be finetuned to previously unseen units using only a handful of data points. In this finetuning procedure, unlabeled data improve soft sensor performance; remarkably, this is true even when no labeled data are available.