As service systems grow increasingly complex and dynamic, many interventions become localized, available and taking effect only in specific states. This paper investigates experiments with local treatments on a widely-used class of dynamic models, Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Particularly, we focus on utilizing the local structure to improve the inference efficiency of the average treatment effect. We begin by demonstrating the efficiency of classical inference methods, including model-based estimation and temporal difference learning under a fixed policy, as well as classical A/B testing with general treatments. We then introduce a variance reduction technique that exploits the local treatment structure by sharing information for states unaffected by the treatment policy. Our new estimator effectively overcomes the variance lower bound for general treatments while matching the more stringent lower bound incorporating the local treatment structure. Furthermore, our estimator can optimally achieve a linear reduction with the number of test arms for a major part of the variance. Finally, we explore scenarios with perfect knowledge of the control arm and design estimators that further improve inference efficiency.

In this study, we delve into the Structured State Space Model (S4), Change Point Detection methodologies, and the Switching Non-linear Dynamics System (SNLDS). Our central proposition is an enhanced inference technique and long-range dependency method for SNLDS. The cornerstone of our approach is the fusion of S4 and SNLDS, leveraging the strengths of both models to effectively address the intricacies of long-range dependencies in switching time series. Through rigorous testing, we demonstrate that our proposed methodology adeptly segments and reproduces long-range dependencies in both the 1-D Lorenz dataset and the 2-D bouncing ball dataset. Notably, our integrated approach outperforms the standalone SNLDS in these tasks.

We consider the problem of Bayesian regression with trustworthy uncertainty quantification. We define that the uncertainty quantification is trustworthy if the ground truth can be captured by intervals dependent on the predictive distributions with a pre-specified probability. Furthermore, we propose, Trust-Bayes, a novel optimization framework for Bayesian meta learning which is cognizant of trustworthy uncertainty quantification without explicit assumptions on the prior model/distribution of the functions. We characterize the lower bounds of the probabilities of the ground truth being captured by the specified intervals and analyze the sample complexity with respect to the feasible probability for trustworthy uncertainty quantification. Monte Carlo simulation of a case study using Gaussian process regression is conducted for verification and comparison with the Meta-prior algorithm.

This paper describes a discrete state-space model -- and accompanying methods -- for generative modelling. This model generalises partially observed Markov decision processes to include paths as latent variables, rendering it suitable for active inference and learning in a dynamic setting. Specifically, we consider deep or hierarchical forms using the renormalisation group. The ensuing renormalising generative models (RGM) can be regarded as discrete homologues of deep convolutional neural networks or continuous state-space models in generalised coordinates of motion. By construction, these scale-invariant models can be used to learn compositionality over space and time, furnishing models of paths or orbits; i.e., events of increasing temporal depth and itinerancy. This technical note illustrates the automatic discovery, learning and deployment of RGMs using a series of applications. We start with image classification and then consider the compression and generation of movies and music. Finally, we apply the same variational principles to the learning of Atari-like games.

Determining the number of clusters is a fundamental issue in data clustering. Several algorithms have been proposed, including centroid-based algorithms using the Euclidean distance and model-based algorithms using a mixture of probability distributions. Among these, greedy algorithms for searching the number of clusters by repeatedly splitting or merging clusters have advantages in terms of computation time for problems with large sample sizes. However, studies comparing these methods in systematic evaluation experiments still need to be included. This study examines centroid- and model-based cluster search algorithms in various cases that Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) can generate. The cases are generated by combining five factors: dimensionality, sample size, the number of clusters, cluster overlap, and covariance type. The results show that some cluster-splitting criteria based on Euclidean distance make unreasonable decisions when clusters overlap. The results also show that model-based algorithms are insensitive to covariance type and cluster overlap compared to the centroid-based method if the sample size is sufficient. Our cluster search implementation codes are available at https://github.com/lipryou/searchClustK

Models for categorical sequences typically assume exchangeable or first-order dependent sequence elements. These are common assumptions, for example, in models of computer malware traces and protein sequences. Although such simplifying assumptions lead to computational tractability, these models fail to capture long-range, complex dependence structures that may be harnessed for greater predictive power. To this end, a Bayesian modelling framework is proposed to parsimoniously capture rich dependence structures in categorical sequences, with memory efficiency suitable for real-time processing of data streams. Parsimonious Bayesian context trees are introduced as a form of variable-order Markov model with conjugate prior distributions. The novel framework requires fewer parameters than fixed-order Markov models by dropping redundant dependencies and clustering sequential contexts. Approximate inference on the context tree structure is performed via a computationally efficient model-based agglomerative clustering procedure. The proposed framework is tested on synthetic and real-world data examples, and it outperforms existing sequence models when fitted to real protein sequences and honeypot computer terminal sessions.

In key real-world problems, full state information is sometimes available but only at a high cost, like activating precise yet energy-intensive sensors or consulting humans, thereby compelling the agent to operate under partial observability. For this scenario, we propose AEMS-SR (Anytime Error Minimization Search with State Requests), a principled online planning algorithm tailored for POMDPs with state requests. By representing the search space as a graph instead of a tree, AEMS-SR avoids the exponential growth of the search space originating from state requests. Theoretical analysis demonstrates AEMS-SR's $\varepsilon$-optimality, ensuring solution quality, while empirical evaluations illustrate its effectiveness compared with AEMS and POMCP, two SOTA online planning algorithms. AEMS-SR enables efficient planning in domains characterized by partial observability and costly state requests offering practical benefits across various applications.

The transition to sustainable energy is a key challenge of our time, requiring modifications in the entire pipeline of energy production, storage, transmission, and consumption. At every stage, new sequential decision-making challenges emerge, ranging from the operation of wind farms to the management of electrical grids or the scheduling of electric vehicle charging stations. All such problems are well suited for reinforcement learning, the branch of machine learning that learns behavior from data. Therefore, numerous studies have explored the use of reinforcement learning for sustainable energy. This paper surveys this literature with the intention of bridging both the underlying research communities: energy and machine learning. After a brief introduction of both fields, we systematically list relevant sustainability challenges, how they can be modeled as a reinforcement learning problem, and what solution approaches currently exist in the literature. Afterwards, we zoom out and identify overarching reinforcement learning themes that appear throughout sustainability, such as multi-agent, offline, and safe reinforcement learning. Lastly, we also cover standardization of environments, which will be crucial for connecting both research fields, and highlight potential directions for future work. In summary, this survey provides an extensive overview of reinforcement learning methods for sustainable energy, which may play a vital role in the energy transition.

This work compares ways of extending Reinforcement Learning algorithms to Partially Observed Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with options. One view of options is as temporally extended action, which can be realized as a memory that allows the agent to retain historical information beyond the policy's context window. While option assignment could be handled using heuristics and hand-crafted objectives, learning temporally consistent options and associated sub-policies without explicit supervision is a challenge. Two algorithms, PPOEM and SOAP, are proposed and studied in depth to address this problem. PPOEM applies the forward-backward algorithm (for Hidden Markov Models) to optimize the expected returns for an option-augmented policy. However, this learning approach is unstable during on-policy rollouts. It is also unsuited for learning causal policies without the knowledge of future trajectories, since option assignments are optimized for offline sequences where the entire episode is available. As an alternative approach, SOAP evaluates the policy gradient for an optimal option assignment. It extends the concept of the generalized advantage estimation (GAE) to propagate option advantages through time, which is an analytical equivalent to performing temporal back-propagation of option policy gradients. This option policy is only conditional on the history of the agent, not future actions. Evaluated against competing baselines, SOAP exhibited the most robust performance, correctly discovering options for POMDP corridor environments, as well as on standard benchmarks including Atari and MuJoCo, outperforming PPOEM, as well as LSTM and Option-Critic baselines. The open-sourced code is available at https://github.com/shuishida/SoapRL.

Since its introduction to the public, ChatGPT has had an unprecedented impact. While some experts praised AI advancements and highlighted their potential risks, others have been critical about the accuracy and usefulness of Large Language Models (LLMs). In this paper, we are interested in the ability of LLMs to identify causal relationships. We focus on the well-established GPT-4 (Turbo) and evaluate its performance under the most restrictive conditions, by isolating its ability to infer causal relationships based solely on the variable labels without being given any context, demonstrating the minimum level of effectiveness one can expect when it is provided with label-only information. We show that questionnaire participants judge the GPT-4 graphs as the most accurate in the evaluated categories, closely followed by knowledge graphs constructed by domain experts, with causal Machine Learning (ML) far behind. We use these results to highlight the important limitation of causal ML, which often produces causal graphs that violate common sense, affecting trust in them. However, we show that pairing GPT-4 with causal ML overcomes this limitation, resulting in graphical structures learnt from real data that align more closely with those identified by domain experts, compared to structures learnt by causal ML alone. Overall, our findings suggest that despite GPT-4 not being explicitly designed to reason causally, it can still be a valuable tool for causal representation, as it improves the causal discovery process of causal ML algorithms that are designed to do just that.