We prove a single algebraic mixed coincidence identity that unifies a broad swath of information-theoretic variational results. For any family of priors $\{π_i\}$ and real exponents $\{ α_i \}$, the log of the mixed count $E_{x\simν}\!\left[\prod_{i=1}^W π_i^{α_i}(x)\right]$ is simultaneously a Boltzmann coincidence weight, an exponential-family normalizer, a maximum-entropy value, and a KL-barycenter optimum. The identity yields a unified derivation of classical cornerstones of information theory: concentration of empirical distributions (Sanov-type decompositions and Gibbs conditioning), hypothesis-testing error exponents (Chernoff information and its multi-way analogue), change-of-measure inequalities (Donsker-Varadhan and PAC-Bayes), and laws governing rare-pattern coincidences (Erdos-Renyi run-length, iterative guesswork, rate-distortion, and birthday thresholds). Each is recovered as a specialization of the same algebraic equality. It strictly generalizes the classical Renyi entropy and divergence variational formulas (one and two priors respectively) to a $W$-prior simplex, and holds for unnormalized and continuum-indexed priors. Among its consequences are an exact multi-prior PAC-Bayes penalty that subtracts an explicit "coincidence bonus" from the usual single-prior posterior penalty, and the asymptotic MAP error exponent for $W$-ary hypothesis testing as an edge-restricted simplex optimum. We demonstrate the calculus at scale on two large alphabets encoding richly modeled sequential languages: on language-model next-token predictives where we recover contrastive decoding, and on human genomic regulatory sequence where it separates correlated from diverse prior families along a sliding-window trace.

Rank aggregation combines information from ordered lists ranking items by preference. Classical parametric models for such data, including the Mallows and Plackett-Luce models, assume the orders concentrate around one or more complete consensus rankings. Recent work relaxes the total-order assumption by allowing the consensus structure to be a partial order (poset), allowing for incomparabilities in preferences. However, in many applications preference data exhibit group structure. We introduce hierarchical partial order (HPO) models, which extend poset-based models to accommodate grouped data through a hierarchy of latent posets. This framework, which parallels mixture model extensions of the Mallows and Plackett-Luce models, enables principled sharing of information across groups while preserving partial-order structure. We show that the Plackett-Luce model and its hierarchical variants are special cases of HPO-models. We develop a hierarchical clustering extension (HCPO) for unsupervised clustering in settings where group labels are unknown. Bayesian inference for the latent poset hierarchy is performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, including pairwise acoustic preference data and LLM agent traces, demonstrate that the proposed HPO and HCPO models outperform existing approaches in both predictive performance and structural interpretability.

Synthetic data augmentation is widely used to mitigate class imbalance, but its theoretical effects on score-based classification remain poorly understood. This paper develops a framework for characterizing when synthetic minority augmentation can improve threshold-integrated and threshold-optimized metrics, including AUROC, AUPRC, best-threshold balanced accuracy, and best-threshold \(\F_1\) score. We separate the effect of augmentation into two components: a change in effective class weighting and a discrepancy between the synthetic and true minority distributions. Under well-specified score models, the raw estimator already targets the likelihood-ratio ordering, which is population-optimal for the metrics considered. Consequently, augmentation cannot provide a fundamental population-level improvement beyond possible finite-sample variance reduction, and may introduce additional bias through synthetic distributional error. We further establish minimax lower bounds showing that the raw estimator already achieves the optimal metric-regret rate in the well-specified regime. Under misspecification, however, augmentation can play a qualitatively different role: by changing the effective class balance, it can alter the restricted-class projection and correct ranking errors induced by the raw imbalanced objective. We provide explicit improvement bounds quantifying the roles of approximation error, finite-sample estimation error, and synthetic distributional error. Simulation studies corroborate the theory, demonstrating limited gains under well-specification and nontrivial but nonmonotone improvements under misspecification.

Mean Field Variational Inference (MFVI) is widely understood to underestimate posterior variance. By analysing conjugate Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR), we show that this characterization is incomplete: while MFVI underestimates the variance in parameter space, it can overestimate the predictive variance compared to the exact posterior. We show that if the MFVI posterior underestimates predictive variances in some directions, it necessarily overestimates them in others. Crucially, this overestimation occurs in directions where the training data concentrates. This leads to the surprising result that, for a test point drawn from the training distribution, MFVI's expected predictive variance exceeds that of the exact posterior. We demonstrate a pathological case of this effect, where the MFVI posterior fails to reduce predictive variance compared to the prior on in distribution data. We connect these results to the Cold Posterior Effect, arguing that varying the temperature can correct this overestimation, yielding predictions closer to those of the exact posterior. We validate our theory on synthetic and real-world regression tasks.

Nonlinear mixed-effects models are widely used to analyze longitudinal data, but existing open-source software often supports only a limited subset of the model structures, inference methods, machine-learning components, automatic differentiation techniques, and random-effects distributions required in modern applications. We introduce NoLimits.jl, an open-source Julia package for flexible and composable nonlinear mixed-effects modeling. Its macro-based modeling language enables observation and latent-state models to be constructed from diverse building blocks, including ordinary differential equations, Markov models, and neural networks. NoLimits.jl supports flexible, covariate-dependent observation and random-effects distributions and provides a unified interface to frequentist inference through Laplace approximation, stochastic expectation maximization, and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We demonstrate the package on three case studies showcasing its workflows, integration of differentiable machine-learning components, and data-driven estimation of random-effects distributions using normalizing flows. Together, these capabilities substantially expand the range of nonlinear mixed-effects models that can be specified, estimated, and compared within a single open-source framework.

Causal discovery in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) for dynamic time series data has been widely studied in various applications. In this work, we propose a dynamic DAG discovery algorithm, Meta-D2AG, based on online metalearning. Meta-D2AG is designed to learn dynamic DAG structures from potentially nonlinear and non-stationary time series datasets, accounting for changes in both parameters and graph structures. Unlike most of the existing work focusing on observational, offline, and/or stationary settings, Meta-D2AG explicitly treats data collected at different time points with distribution shifts as distinct domains, which is assumed to occur as a result of external interventions. Moreover, MetaD2AG involves a new online meta-learning framework to take advantage of the temporal transition among existing domains such that it can quickly adapt to new domains with few measurements. A first-order optimization approach is utilized to efficiently solve the meta-learning framework, and theoretical analysis establishes the identifiability conditions and the convergence of the learning process. We demonstrate the promising performance of the proposed meta learning framework through better accuracy on benchmark datasets against state-of-the-art baselines.

Unsupervised Environment Design (UED) seeks to automatically generate training curricula for reinforcement learning (RL) agents, with the goal of improving generalisation and zero-shot performance. However, designing effective curricula remains a difficult problem, particularly in settings where small subsets of environment parameterisations result in significant increases in the complexity of the required policy. Current methods struggle with a difficult credit assignment problem and rely on regret approximations that fail to identify challenging levels, both of which are compounded as the size of the environment grows. We propose Dynamic Environment Generation for UED (DEGen) to enable a denser level generator reward signal, reducing the difficulty of credit assignment and allowing for UED to scale to larger environment sizes. We also introduce a new regret approximation, Maximised Negative Advantage (MNA), as a significantly improved metric to optimise for, that better identifies more challenging levels. We show empirically that MNA outperforms current regret approximations and when combined with DEGen, consistently outperforms existing methods, especially as the size of the environment grows. We have made all our code available here: https://github.

We study offline imitation learning (IL) in cooperative multi-agent settings, where demonstrations have unlabeled mixed quality -- containing both expert and suboptimal trajectories. Our proposed solution is structured in two stages: trajectory labeling and multi-agent imitation learning, designed jointly to enable effective learning from heterogeneous, unlabeled data. In the first stage, we combine advances in large language models and preference-based reinforcement learning to construct a progressive labeling pipeline that distinguishes expert-quality trajectories. In the second stage, we introduce MisoDICE, a novel multi-agent IL algorithm that leverages these labels to learn robust policies while addressing the computational complexity of large joint state-action spaces. By extending the popular single-agent DICE framework to multi-agent settings with a new value decomposition and mixing architecture, our method yields a convex policy optimization objective and ensures consistency between global and local policies. We evaluate MisoDICE on multiple standard multi-agent RL benchmarks and demonstrate superior performance, especially when expert data is scarce.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications.

Steering cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) towards desired outcomes is challenging, particularly when the global guidance from a human on the whole multi-agent system is impractical in a large-scale MARL. On the other hand, designing external mechanisms (e.g., intrinsic rewards and human feedback) to coordinate agents mostly relies on empirical studies, lacking a easy-to-use research tool. In this work, we employ multi-agent influence diagrams (MAIDs) as a graphical framework to address the above issues. First, we introduce the concept of MARL interaction paradigms (orthogonal to MARL learning paradigms), using MAIDs to analyze and visualize both unguided self-organization and global guidance mechanisms in MARL. Then, we design a new MARL interaction paradigm, referred to as the targeted intervention paradigm that is applied to only a single targeted agent, so the problem of global guidance can be mitigated. In implementation, we introduce a causal inference technique--referred to as Pre-Strategy Intervention (PSI)--to realize the targeted intervention paradigm. Since MAIDs can be regarded as a special class of causal diagrams, a composite desired outcome that integrates the primary task goal and an additional desired outcome can be achieved by maximizing the corresponding causal effect through the PSI. Moreover, the bundled relevance graph analysis of MAIDs provides a tool to identify whether an MARL learning paradigm is workable under the design of an MARL interaction paradigm. In experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed targeted intervention, and verify the result of relevance graph analysis.