Gaussian Markov random fields (GMRFs) are probabilistic graphical models widely used in spatial statistics and related fields to model dependencies over spatial structures. We establish a formal connection between GMRFs and convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Common GMRFs are special cases of a generative model where the inverse mapping from data to latent variables is given by a 1-layer linear CNN. This connection allows us to generalize GMRFs to multi-layer CNN architectures, effectively increasing the order of the corresponding GMRF in a way which has favorable computational scaling. We describe how well-established tools, such as autodiff and variational inference, can be used for simple and efficient inference and learning of the deep GMRF. We demonstrate the flexibility of the proposed model and show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art on a dataset of satellite temperatures, in terms of prediction and predictive uncertainty.

Robots are required to not only learn spatial concepts autonomously but also utilize such knowledge for various tasks in a domestic environment. Spatial concept represents a multimodal place category acquired from the robot's spatial experience including vision, speech-language, and self-position. The aim of this study is to enable a mobile robot to perform navigational tasks with human speech instructions, such as `Go to the kitchen', via probabilistic inference on a Bayesian generative model using spatial concepts. Specifically, path planning was formalized as the maximization of probabilistic distribution on the path-trajectory under speech instruction, based on a control-as-inference framework. Furthermore, we described the relationship between probabilistic inference based on the Bayesian generative model and control problem including reinforcement learning. We demonstrated path planning based on human instruction using acquired spatial concepts to verify the usefulness of the proposed approach in the simulator and in real environments. Experimentally, places instructed by the user's speech commands showed high probability values, and the trajectory toward the target place was correctly estimated. Our approach, based on probabilistic inference concerning decision-making, can lead to further improvement in robot autonomy.

We develop provably efficient reinforcement learning algorithms for two-player zero-sum Markov games in which the two players simultaneously take actions. To incorporate function approximation, we consider a family of Markov games where the reward function and transition kernel possess a linear structure. Both the offline and online settings of the problems are considered. In the offline setting, we control both players and the goal is to find the Nash Equilibrium efficiently by minimizing the worst-case duality gap. In the online setting, we control a single player to play against an arbitrary opponent and the goal is to minimize the regret. For both settings, we propose an optimistic variant of the least-squares minimax value iteration algorithm. We show that our algorithm is computationally efficient and provably achieves an $\tilde O(\sqrt{d^3 H^3 T})$ upper bound on the duality gap and regret, without requiring additional assumptions on the sampling model. We highlight that our setting requires overcoming several new challenges that are absent in Markov decision processes or turn-based Markov games. In particular, to achieve optimism in simultaneous-move Marko games, we construct both upper and lower confidence bounds of the value function, and then compute the optimistic policy by solving a general-sum matrix game with these bounds as the payoff matrices. As finding the Nash Equilibrium of such a general-sum game is computationally hard, our algorithm instead solves for a Coarse Correlated Equilibrium (CCE), which can be obtained efficiently via linear programming. To our best knowledge, such a CCE-based scheme for implementing optimism has not appeared in the literature and might be of interest in its own right.

We consider the estimation of treatment effects in settings when multiple treatments are assigned over time and treatments can have a causal effect on future outcomes. We formulate the problem as a linear state space Markov process with a high dimensional state and propose an extension of the double/debiased machine learning framework to estimate the dynamic effects of treatments. Our method allows the use of arbitrary machine learning methods to control for the high dimensional state, subject to a mean square error guarantee, while still allowing parametric estimation and construction of confidence intervals for the dynamic treatment effect parameters of interest. Our method is based on a sequential regression peeling process, which we show can be equivalently interpreted as a Neyman orthogonal moment estimator. This allows us to show root-n asymptotic normality of the estimated causal effects.

To make decisions based on a model fit by Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes (AEVB), practitioners typically use importance sampling to estimate a functional of the posterior distribution. The variational distribution found by AEVB serves as the proposal distribution for importance sampling. However, this proposal distribution may give unreliable (high variance) importance sampling estimates, thus leading to poor decisions. We explore how changing the objective function for learning the variational distribution, while continuing to learn the generative model based on the ELBO, affects the quality of downstream decisions. For a particular model, we characterize the error of importance sampling as a function of posterior variance and show that proposal distributions learned with evidence upper bounds are better. Motivated by these theoretical results, we propose a novel variant of the VAE. In addition to experimenting with MNIST, we present a full-fledged application of the proposed method to single-cell RNA sequencing. In this challenging instance of multiple hypothesis testing, the proposed method surpasses the current state of the art.

In this paper, we present an approach based on reinforcement learning for eye tracking data manipulation. It is based on two opposing agents, where one tries to classify the data correctly and the second agent looks for patterns in the data, which get manipulated to hide specific information. We show that our approach is successfully applicable to preserve the privacy of a subject. In addition, our approach allows to evaluate the importance of temporal, as well as spatial, information of eye tracking data for specific classification goals. In general, this approach can also be used for stimuli manipulation, making it interesting for gaze guidance. For this purpose, this work provides the theoretical basis, which is why we have also integrated a section on how to apply this method for gaze guidance.

There are several real-world tasks that would benefit from applying multiagent reinforcement learning (MARL) algorithms, including the coordination among self-driving cars. The real world has challenging conditions for multiagent learning systems, such as its partial observable and nonstationary nature. Moreover, if agents must share a limited resource (e.g. network bandwidth) they must all learn how to coordinate resource use. This paper introduces a deep recurrent multiagent actor-critic framework (R-MADDPG) for handling multiagent coordination under partial observable set-tings and limited communication. We investigate recurrency effects on performance and communication use of a team of agents. We demonstrate that the resulting framework learns time dependencies for sharing missing observations, handling resource limitations, and developing different communication patterns among agents.

Many graphical models, such as Markov Logic Networks (MLNs) with evidence, possess highly symmetric substructures but no exact symmetries. Unfortunately, there are few principled methods that exploit these symmetric substructures to perform efficient approximate inference. In this paper, we present a lifted variant of the Weighted Mini-Bucket elimination algorithm which provides a principled way to (i) exploit the highly symmetric substructure of MLN models, and (ii) incorporate high-order inference terms which are necessary for high quality approximate inference. Our method has significant control over the accuracy-time trade-off of the approximation, allowing us to generate any-time approximations. Experimental results demonstrate the utility of this class of approximations, especially in models with strong repulsive potentials.

We present a new algorithmic approach for the task of finding a chordal Markov network structure that maximizes a given scoring function. The algorithm is based on branch and bound and integrates dynamic programming for both domain pruning and for obtaining strong bounds for search-space pruning. Empirically, we show that the approach dominates in terms of running times a recent integer programming approach (and thereby also a recent constraint optimization approach) for the problem. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

In this paper, we prove that every multivariate polynomial with even degree can be decomposed into a sum of convex and concave polynomials. Motivated by this property, we exploit the concave-convex procedure to perform inference on continuous Markov random fields with polynomial potentials. In particular, we show that the concave-convex decomposition of polynomials can be expressed as a sum-of-squares optimization, which can be efficiently solved via semidefinite programming. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in the context of 3D reconstruction, shape from shading and image denoising, and show that our approach significantly outperforms existing approaches in terms of efficiency as well as the quality of the retrieved solution. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.