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FormulaZero: Distributionally Robust Online Adaptation via Offline Population Synthesis

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Balancing performance and safety is crucial to deploying autonomous vehicles in multi-agent environments. In particular, autonomous racing is a domain that penalizes safe but conservative policies, highlighting the need for robust, adaptive strategies. Current approaches either make simplifying assumptions about other agents or lack robust mechanisms for online adaptation. This work makes algorithmic contributions to both challenges. First, to generate a realistic, diverse set of opponents, we develop a novel method for self-play based on replica-exchange Markov chain Monte Carlo. Second, we propose a distributionally robust bandit optimization procedure that adaptively adjusts risk aversion relative to uncertainty in beliefs about opponents' behaviors. We rigorously quantify the tradeoffs in performance and robustness when approximating these computations in real-time motion-planning, and we demonstrate our methods experimentally on autonomous vehicles that achieve scaled speeds comparable to Formula One racecars.


Research Associate - Bioinformatics Lab

#artificialintelligence

The UBC Centre for Molecular Medicine and Therapeutics based at the BC Children's Hospital Research Institute is home to a highly collaborative community of scientists connected by a common commitment to use leading edge molecular methods to advance development of therapeutics for human disease. With a strong history in neurogenetics and metabolism research, the CMMT offers one of the premier research environments in Canada for interdisciplinary biomedical research. The Wasserman laboratory creates and applies bioinformatics methods for the study of the human genome. Research projects span the development of machine learning methods and algorithms for the detection of features in genomics data, the application of bioinformatics methods in applied projects such as the identification of genetic sequence variants causing rare disease or the design of gene therapy vectors. The lab members possess expertise spanning disciplines from mathematics to computer science and from human genetics to biochemistry.


Active Model Estimation in Markov Decision Processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of efficient exploration in order to learn an accurate model of an environment, modeled as a Markov decision process (MDP). Efficient exploration in this problem requires the agent to identify the regions in which estimating the model is more difficult and then exploit this knowledge to collect more samples there. In this paper, we formalize this problem, introduce the first algorithm to learn an $\epsilon$-accurate estimate of the dynamics, and provide its sample complexity analysis. While this algorithm enjoys strong guarantees in the large-sample regime, it tends to have a poor performance in early stages of exploration. To address this issue, we propose an algorithm that is based on maximum weighted entropy, a heuristic that stems from common sense and our theoretical analysis. The main idea here is cover the entire state-action space with the weight proportional to the noise in the transitions. Using a number of simple domains with heterogeneous noise in their transitions, we show that our heuristic-based algorithm outperforms both our original algorithm and the maximum entropy algorithm in the small sample regime, while achieving similar asymptotic performance as that of the original algorithm.


Contextual Blocking Bandits

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study a novel variant of the multi-armed bandit problem, where at each time step, the player observes a context that determines the arms' mean rewards. However, playing an arm blocks it (across all contexts) for a fixed number of future time steps. This model extends the blocking bandits model (Basu et al., NeurIPS19) to a contextual setting, and captures important scenarios such as recommendation systems or ad placement with diverse users, and processing diverse pool of jobs. This contextual setting, however, invalidates greedy solution techniques that are effective for its non-contextual counterpart. Assuming knowledge of the mean reward for each arm-context pair, we design a randomized LP-based algorithm which is $\alpha$-optimal in (large enough) $T$ time steps, where $\alpha = \tfrac{d_{\max}}{2d_{\max}-1}\left(1- \epsilon\right)$ for any $\epsilon >0$, and $d_{max}$ is the maximum delay of the arms. In the bandit setting, we show that a UCB based variant of the above online policy guarantees $\mathcal{O}\left(\log T\right)$ regret w.r.t. the $\alpha$-optimal strategy in $T$ time steps, which matches the $\Omega(\log(T))$ regret lower bound in this setting. Due to the time correlation caused by the blocking of arms, existing techniques for upper bounding regret fail. As a first, in the presence of such temporal correlations, we combine ideas from coupling of non-stationary Markov chains and opportunistic sub-sampling with suboptimality charging techniques from combinatorial bandits to prove our regret upper bounds.


Safe Mission Planning under Dynamical Uncertainties

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper considers safe robot mission planning in uncertain dynamical environments. This problem arises in applications such as surveillance, emergency rescue, and autonomous driving. It is a challenging problem due to modeling and integrating dynamical uncertainties into a safe planning framework, and finding a solution in a computationally tractable way. In this work, we first develop a probabilistic model for dynamical uncertainties. Then, we provide a framework to generate a path that maximizes safety for complex missions by incorporating the uncertainty model. We also devise a Monte Carlo method to obtain a safe path efficiently. Finally, we evaluate the performance of our approach and compare it to potential alternatives in several case studies.


Path Planning Using Probability Tensor Flows

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Probability models have been proposed in the literature to account for "intelligent" behavior in many contexts. In this paper, probability propagation is applied to model agent's motion in potentially complex scenarios that include goals and obstacles. The backward flow provides precious background information to the agent's behavior, viz., inferences coming from the future determine the agent's actions. Probability tensors are layered in time in both directions in a manner similar to convolutional neural networks. The discussion is carried out with reference to a set of simulated grids where, despite the apparent task complexity, a solution, if feasible, is always found. The original model proposed by Attias has been extended to include non-absorbing obstacles, multiple goals and multiple agents. The emerging behaviors are very realistic and demonstrate great potentials of the application of this framework to real environments.


Unsupervised Neural Universal Denoiser for Finite-Input General-Output Noisy Channel

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We devise a novel neural network-based universal denoiser for the finite-input, general-output (FIGO) channel. Based on the assumption of known noisy channel densities, which is realistic in many practical scenarios, we train the network such that it can denoise as well as the best sliding window denoiser for any given underlying clean source data. Our algorithm, dubbed as Generalized CUDE (Gen-CUDE), enjoys several desirable properties; it can be trained in an unsupervised manner (solely based on the noisy observation data), has much smaller computational complexity compared to the previously developed universal denoiser for the same setting, and has much tighter upper bound on the denoising performance, which is obtained by a theoretical analysis. In our experiments, we show such tighter upper bound is also realized in practice by showing that Gen-CUDE achieves much better denoising results compared to other strong baselines for both synthetic and real underlying clean sequences.


Distributional Robustness and Regularization in Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) has enabled to prove the equivalence between robustness and regularization in classification and regression, thus providing an analytical reason why regularization generalizes well in statistical learning. Although DRO's extension to sequential decision-making overcomes $\textit{external uncertainty}$ through the robust Markov Decision Process (MDP) setting, the resulting formulation is hard to solve, especially on large domains. On the other hand, existing regularization methods in reinforcement learning only address $\textit{internal uncertainty}$ due to stochasticity. Our study aims to facilitate robust reinforcement learning by establishing a dual relation between robust MDPs and regularization. We introduce Wasserstein distributionally robust MDPs and prove that they hold out-of-sample performance guarantees. Then, we introduce a new regularizer for empirical value functions and show that it lower bounds the Wasserstein distributionally robust value function. We extend the result to linear value function approximation for large state spaces. Our approach provides an alternative formulation of robustness with guaranteed finite-sample performance. Moreover, it suggests using regularization as a practical tool for dealing with $\textit{external uncertainty}$ in reinforcement learning methods.


Tatistical Context-Dependent Units Boundary Correction for Corpus-based Unit-Selection Text-to-Speech

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Unlike conventional techniques for speaker adaptation, which attempt to improve the accuracy of the segmentation using acoustic models that are more robust in the face of the speaker's characteristics, we aim to use only context dependent characteristics extrapolated with linguistic analysis techniques. In simple terms, we use the intuitive idea that context dependent information is tightly correlated with the related acoustic waveform. We propose a statistical model, which predicts correcting values to reduce the systematic error produced by a state-of-the-art Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based speech segmentation. In other words, we can predict how HMM-based Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) systems interpret the waveform signal determining the systematic error in different contextual scenarios. Our approach consists of two phases: (1) identifying contextdependent phonetic unit classes (for instance, the class which identifies vowels as being the nucleus of monosyllabic words); and (2) building a regression model that associates the mean error value made by the ASR during the segmentation of a single speaker corpus to each class. The success of the approach is evaluated by comparing the corrected boundaries of units and the state-of-the-art HHM segmentation against a reference alignment, which is supposed to be the optimal solution. The results of this study show that the contextdependent correction of units' boundaries has a positive influence on the forced alignment, especially when the misinterpretation of the phone is driven by acoustic properties linked to the speaker's phonetic characteristics. In conclusion, our work supplies a first analysis of a model sensitive to speaker-dependent characteristics, robust to defective and noisy information, and a very simple implementation which could be utilized as an alternative to either more expensive speaker-adaptation systems or of numerous manual correction sessions.


Stochastically Differentiable Probabilistic Programs

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Probabilistic programs with mixed support (both continuous and discrete latent random variables) commonly appear in many probabilistic programming systems (PPSs). However, the existence of the discrete random variables prohibits many basic gradient-based inference engines, which makes the inference procedure on such models particularly challenging. Existing PPSs either require the user to manually marginalize out the discrete variables or to perform a composing inference by running inference separately on discrete and continuous variables. The former is infeasible in most cases whereas the latter has some fundamental shortcomings. We present a novel approach to run inference efficiently and robustly in such programs using stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo family of algorithms. We compare our stochastic gradient-based inference algorithm against conventional baselines in several important cases of probabilistic programs with mixed support, and demonstrate that it outperforms existing composing inference baselines and works almost as well as inference in marginalized versions of the programs, but with less programming effort and at a lower computation cost.