Estimation of patient-specific model parameters is important for personalized modeling, although sparse and noisy clinical data can introduce significant uncertainty in the estimated parameter values. This importance source of uncertainty, if left unquantified, will lead to unknown variability in model outputs that hinder their reliable adoptions. Probabilistic estimation model parameters, however, remains an unresolved challenge because standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling requires repeated model simulations that are computationally infeasible. A common solution is to replace the simulation model with a computationally-efficient surrogate for a faster sampling. However, by sampling from an approximation of the exact posterior probability density function (pdf) of the parameters, the efficiency is gained at the expense of sampling accuracy. In this paper, we address this issue by integrating surrogate modeling into Metropolis Hasting (MH) sampling of the exact posterior pdfs to improve its acceptance rate. It is done by first quickly constructing a Gaussian process (GP) surrogate of the exact posterior pdfs using deterministic optimization. This efficient surrogate is then used to modify commonly-used proposal distributions in MH sampling such that only proposals accepted by the surrogate will be tested by the exact posterior pdf for acceptance/rejection, reducing unnecessary model simulations at unlikely candidates. Synthetic and real-data experiments using the presented method show a significant gain in computational efficiency without compromising the accuracy. In addition, insights into the non-identifiability and heterogeneity of tissue properties can be gained from the obtained posterior distributions.

Automated mitotic detection in time-lapse phasecontrast microscopy provides us much information for cell behavior analysis, and thus several mitosis detection methods have been proposed. However, these methods still have two problems; 1) they cannot detect multiple mitosis events when there are closely placed. 2) they do not consider the annotation gaps, which may occur since the appearances of mitosis cells are very similar before and after the annotated frame. In this paper, we propose a novel mitosis detection method that can detect multiple mitosis events in a candidate sequence and mitigate the human annotation gap via estimating a spatiotemporal likelihood map by 3DCNN. In this training, the loss gradually decreases with the gap size between ground truth and estimation. This mitigates the annotation gaps. Our method outperformed the compared methods in terms of F1- score using a challenging dataset that contains the data under four different conditions.

Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) or Energy Disaggregation (ED), seeks to save energy by decomposing corresponding appliances power reading from an aggregate power reading of the whole house. It is a single channel blind source separation problem (SCBSS) and difficult prediction problem because it is unidentifiable. Recent research shows that deep learning has become a growing popularity for NILM problem. The ability of neural networks to extract load features is closely related to its depth. However, deep neural network is difficult to train because of exploding gradient, vanishing gradient and network degradation. To solve these problems, we propose a sequence to point learning framework based on bidirectional (non-casual) dilated convolution for NILM. To be more convincing, we compare our method with the state of art method--Seq2point (Zhang) directly and compare with existing algorithms indirectly via two same datasets and metrics. Experiments based on REDD and UK-DALE data sets show that our proposed approach is far superior to existing approaches in all appliances.

Framed in positive terms, this report examines how technical AI research might be steered in a manner that is more attentive to humanity's long-term prospects for survival as a species. In negative terms, we ask what existential risks humanity might face from AI development in the next century, and by what principles contemporary technical research might be directed to address those risks. A key property of hypothetical AI technologies is introduced, called \emph{prepotence}, which is useful for delineating a variety of potential existential risks from artificial intelligence, even as AI paradigms might shift. A set of \auxref{dirtot} contemporary research \directions are then examined for their potential benefit to existential safety. Each research direction is explained with a scenario-driven motivation, and examples of existing work from which to build. The research directions present their own risks and benefits to society that could occur at various scales of impact, and in particular are not guaranteed to benefit existential safety if major developments in them are deployed without adequate forethought and oversight. As such, each direction is accompanied by a consideration of potentially negative side effects.

Having been collected for its primary purpose in patient care, Observational Health Data (OHD) can further benefit patient well-being by sustaining the development of health informatics. However, the potential for secondary usage of OHD continues to be hampered by the fiercely private nature of patient-related data. Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) have Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) have recently emerged as a groundbreaking approach to efficiently learn generative models that produce realistic Synthetic Data (SD). However, the application of GAN to OHD seems to have been lagging in comparison to other fields. We conducted a review of GAN algorithms for OHD in the published literature, and report our findings here.

This work examines the hypothesis that partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) planning with human driver internal states can significantly improve both safety and efficiency in autonomous freeway driving. We evaluate this hypothesis in a simulated scenario where an autonomous car must safely perform three lane changes in rapid succession. Approximate POMDP solutions are obtained through the partially observable Monte Carlo planning with observation widening (POMCPOW) algorithm. This approach outperforms over-confident and conservative MDP baselines and matches or outperforms QMDP. Relative to the MDP baselines, POMCPOW typically cuts the rate of unsafe situations in half or increases the success rate by 50%.

Penetration testing is a security exercise aimed at assessing the security of a system by simulating attacks against it. So far, penetration testing has been carried out mainly by trained human attackers and its success critically depended on the available expertise. Automating this practice constitutes a non-trivial problem, as the range of actions that a human expert may attempts against a system and the range of knowledge she relies on to take her decisions are hard to capture. In this paper, we focus our attention on simplified penetration testing problems expressed in the form of capture the flag hacking challenges, and we apply reinforcement learning algorithms to try to solve them. In modelling these capture the flag competitions as reinforcement learning problems we highlight the specific challenges that characterize penetration testing. We observe these challenges experimentally across a set of varied simulations, and we study how different reinforcement learning techniques may help us addressing these challenges. In this way we show the feasibility of tackling penetration testing using reinforcement learning, and we highlight the challenges that must be taken into consideration, and possible directions to solve them.

Recent procedural content generation via machine learning (PCGML) methods allow learning from existing content to produce similar content automatically. While these approaches are able to generate content for different games (e.g. Super Mario Bros., DOOM, Zelda, and Kid Icarus), it is an open questions how well these approaches can capture large-scale visual patterns such as symmetry. In this paper, we propose match-three games as a domain to test PCGML algorithms regarding their ability to generate suitable patterns. We demonstrate that popular algorithm such as Generative Adversarial Networks struggle in this domain and propose adaptations to improve their performance. In particular we augment the neighborhood of a Markov Random Fields approach to not only take local but also symmetric positional information into account. We conduct several empirical tests including a user study that show the improvements achieved by the proposed modifications, and obtain promising results.

Quantum computers can in principle solve certain problems exponentially more quickly than their classical counterparts. We have not yet reached the advent of useful quantum computation, but when we do, it will affect nearly all scientific disciplines. In this review, we examine how current quantum algorithms could revolutionize computational biology and bioinformatics. There are potential benefits across the entire field, from the ability to process vast amounts of information and run machine learning algorithms far more efficiently, to algorithms for quantum simulation that are poised to improve computational calculations in drug discovery, to quantum algorithms for optimization that may advance fields from protein structure prediction to network analysis. However, these exciting prospects are susceptible to "hype", and it is also important to recognize the caveats and challenges in this new technology. Our aim is to introduce the promise and limitations of emerging quantum computing technologies in the areas of computational molecular biology and bioinformatics.

Knowledge tracing (KT) models, e.g., the deep knowledge tracing (DKT) model, track an individual learner's acquisition of skills over time by examining the learner's performance on questions related to those skills. A practical limitation in most existing KT models is that all questions nested under a particular skill are treated as equivalent observations of a learner's ability, which is an inaccurate assumption in real-world educational scenarios. To overcome this limitation we introduce qDKT, a variant of DKT that models every learner's success probability on individual questions over time. First, qDKT incorporates graph Laplacian regularization to smooth predictions under each skill, which is particularly useful when the number of questions in the dataset is big. Second, qDKT uses an initialization scheme inspired by the fastText algorithm, which has found success in a variety of language modeling tasks. Our experiments on several real-world datasets show that qDKT achieves state-of-art performance on predicting learner outcomes. Because of this, qDKT can serve as a simple, yet tough-to-beat, baseline for new question-centric KT models.