Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian data analysis has now become the method of choice for analyzing and interpreting data in almost all disciplines of science. In astronomy, over the last decade, we have also seen a steady increase in the number of papers that employ Monte Carlo based Bayesian analysis. New, efficient Monte Carlo based methods are continuously being developed and explored. In this review, we first explain the basics of Bayesian theory and discuss how to set up data analysis problems within this framework. Next, we provide an overview of various Monte Carlo based methods for performing Bayesian data analysis.

We consider Markov logic networks and relational logistic regression as two fundamental representation formalisms in statistical relational artificial intelligence that use weighted formulas in their specification. However, Markov logic networks are based on undirected graphs, while relational logistic regression is based on directed acyclic graphs. We show that when scaling the weight parameters with the domain size, the asymptotic behaviour of a relational logistic regression model is transparently controlled by the parameters, and we supply an algorithm to compute asymptotic probabilities. We also show using two examples that this is not true for Markov logic networks. We also discuss using several examples, mainly from the literature, how the application context can help the user to decide when such scaling is appropriate and when using the raw unscaled parameters might be preferable. We highlight random sampling as a particularly promising area of application for scaled models and expound possible avenues for further research.

Natural language processing (NLP) and deep learning are growing in popularity for their use in ML technologies like self-driving cars and speech recognition software. As more companies begin to implement deep learning components and other machine learning practices, the demand for software developers and data scientists with proficiency in deep learning is skyrocketing. Today, we will introduce you to a popular deep learning project, the Text Generator, to familiarize you with important, industry-standard NLP concepts, including Markov chains. By the end of this article, you'll understand how to build a Text Generator component for search engine systems and the know-how to implement Markov chains for faster predictive models. Text generation is popular across the board and in every industry, especially for the mobile, app, and data science.

We present a formal language for specifying qualitative preferences over temporal goals and a preference-based planning method in stochastic systems. Using automata-theoretic modeling, the proposed specification allows us to express preferences over different sets of outcomes, where each outcome describes a set of temporal sequences of subgoals. We define the value of preference satisfaction given a stochastic process over possible outcomes and develop an algorithm for time-constrained probabilistic planning in labeled Markov decision processes where an agent aims to maximally satisfy its preference formula within a pre-defined finite time duration. We present experimental results using a stochastic gridworld example and discuss possible extensions of the proposed preference model.

Short text is a popular avenue of sharing feedback, opinions and reviews on social media, e-commerce platforms, etc. Many companies need to extract meaningful information (which may include thematic content as well as semantic polarity) out of such short texts to understand users' behaviour. However, obtaining high quality sentiment-associated and human interpretable themes still remains a challenge for short texts. In this paper we develop ELJST, an embedding enhanced generative joint sentiment-topic model that can discover more coherent and diverse topics from short texts. It uses Markov Random Field Regularizer that can be seen as a generalisation of skip-gram based models. Further, it can leverage higher-order semantic information appearing in word embedding, such as self-attention weights in graphical models. Our results show an average improvement of 10% in topic coherence and 5% in topic diversification over baselines. Finally, ELJST helps understand users' behaviour at more granular levels which can be explained. All these can bring significant values to the service and healthcare industries often dealing with customers.

We need to decide what proportion of salmons to catch in a year in a specific area maximizing the longer term return. Each salmon generates a fixed amount of dollar. But if a large proportion of salmons are caught then the yield of the next year will be lower. We need to find the optimum portion of salmons to catch to maximize the return over a long time period. Here we consider a simplified version of the above problem; whether to fish a certain portion of salmon or not.

Online algorithms for detecting changepoints, or abrupt shifts in the behavior of a time series, are often deployed with limited resources, e.g., to edge computing settings such as mobile phones or industrial sensors. In these scenarios it may be beneficial to trade the cost of collecting an environmental measurement against the quality or "fidelity" of this measurement and how the measurement affects changepoint estimation. For instance, one might decide between inertial measurements or GPS to determine changepoints for motion. A Bayesian approach to changepoint detection is particularly appealing because we can represent our posterior uncertainty about changepoints and make active, cost-sensitive decisions about data fidelity to reduce this posterior uncertainty. Moreover, the total cost could be dramatically lowered through active fidelity switching, while remaining robust to changes in data distribution. We propose a multi-fidelity approach that makes cost-sensitive decisions about which data fidelity to collect based on maximizing information gain with respect to changepoints. We evaluate this framework on synthetic, video, and audio data and show that this information-based approach results in accurate predictions while reducing total cost.

Model-based planning and prospection are widely studied in both cognitive neuroscience and artificial intelligence (AI), but from different perspectives - and with different desiderata in mind (biological realism versus scalability) that are difficult to reconcile. Here, we introduce a novel method to plan in large POMDPs - Active Tree Search - that combines the normative character and biological realism of a leading planning theory in neuroscience (Active Inference) and the scalability of Monte-Carlo methods in AI. This unification is beneficial for both approaches. On the one hand, using Monte-Carlo planning permits scaling up the biologically grounded approach of Active Inference to large-scale problems. On the other hand, the theory of Active Inference provides a principled solution to the balance of exploration and exploitation, which is often addressed heuristically in Monte-Carlo methods. Our simulations show that Active Tree Search successfully navigates binary trees that are challenging for sampling-based methods, problems that require adaptive exploration, and the large POMDP problem Rocksample. Furthermore, we illustrate how Active Tree Search can be used to simulate neurophysiological responses (e.g., in the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex) of humans and other animals that contain large planning problems. These simulations show that Active Tree Search is a principled realisation of neuroscientific and AI theories of planning, which offers both biological realism and scalability.

This paper considers batch Reinforcement Learning (RL) with general value function approximation. Our study investigates the minimal assumptions to reliably estimate/minimize Bellman error, and characterizes the generalization performance by (local) Rademacher complexities of general function classes, which makes initial steps in bridging the gap between statistical learning theory and batch RL. Concretely, we view the Bellman error as a surrogate loss for the optimality gap, and prove the followings: (1) In double sampling regime, the excess risk of Empirical Risk Minimizer (ERM) is bounded by the Rademacher complexity of the function class. (2) In the single sampling regime, sample-efficient risk minimization is not possible without further assumptions, regardless of algorithms. However, with completeness assumptions, the excess risk of FQI and a minimax style algorithm can be again bounded by the Rademacher complexity of the corresponding function classes. (3) Fast statistical rates can be achieved by using tools of local Rademacher complexity. Our analysis covers a wide range of function classes, including finite classes, linear spaces, kernel spaces, sparse linear features, etc.

Imitation learning (IL) enables robots to acquire skills quickly by transferring expert knowledge, which is widely adopted in reinforcement learning (RL) to initialize exploration. However, in long-horizon motion planning tasks, a challenging problem in deploying IL and RL methods is how to generate and collect massive, broadly distributed data such that these methods can generalize effectively. In this work, we solve this problem using our proposed approach called {self-imitation learning by planning (SILP)}, where demonstration data are collected automatically by planning on the visited states from the current policy. SILP is inspired by the observation that successfully visited states in the early reinforcement learning stage are collision-free nodes in the graph-search based motion planner, so we can plan and relabel robot's own trials as demonstrations for policy learning. Due to these self-generated demonstrations, we relieve the human operator from the laborious data preparation process required by IL and RL methods in solving complex motion planning tasks. The evaluation results show that our SILP method achieves higher success rates and enhances sample efficiency compared to selected baselines, and the policy learned in simulation performs well in a real-world placement task with changing goals and obstacles.