Clinical decision support tools rooted in machine learning and optimization can provide significant value to healthcare providers, including through better management of intensive care units. In particular, it is important that the patient discharge task addresses the nuanced trade-off between decreasing a patient's length of stay (and associated hospitalization costs) and the risk of readmission or even death following the discharge decision. This work introduces an end-to-end general framework for capturing this trade-off to recommend optimal discharge timing decisions given a patient's electronic health records. A data-driven approach is used to derive a parsimonious, discrete state space representation that captures a patient's physiological condition. Based on this model and a given cost function, an infinite-horizon discounted Markov decision process is formulated and solved numerically to compute an optimal discharge policy, whose value is assessed using off-policy evaluation strategies. Extensive numerical experiments are performed to validate the proposed framework using real-life intensive care unit patient data.

We focus on the task of creating a reinforcement learning agent that is inherently explainable -- with the ability to produce immediate local explanations by thinking out loud while performing a task and analyzing entire trajectories post-hoc to produce causal explanations. This Hierarchically Explainable Reinforcement Learning agent (HEX-RL), operates in Interactive Fictions, text-based game environments in which an agent perceives and acts upon the world using textual natural language. These games are usually structured as puzzles or quests with long-term dependencies in which an agent must complete a sequence of actions to succeed -- providing ideal environments in which to test an agent's ability to explain its actions. Our agent is designed to treat explainability as a first-class citizen, using an extracted symbolic knowledge graph-based state representation coupled with a Hierarchical Graph Attention mechanism that points to the facts in the internal graph representation that most influenced the choice of actions. Experiments show that this agent provides significantly improved explanations over strong baselines, as rated by human participants generally unfamiliar with the environment, while also matching state-of-the-art task performance.

Reinforcement learning (RL) techniques have shown great success in quantitative investment tasks, such as portfolio management and algorithmic trading. Especially, intraday trading is one of the most profitable and risky tasks because of the intraday behaviors of the financial market that reflect billions of rapidly fluctuating values. However, it is hard to apply existing RL methods to intraday trading due to the following three limitations: 1) overlooking micro-level market information (e.g., limit order book); 2) only focusing on local price fluctuation and failing to capture the overall trend of the whole trading day; 3) neglecting the impact of market risk. To tackle these limitations, we propose DeepScalper, a deep reinforcement learning framework for intraday trading. Specifically, we adopt an encoder-decoder architecture to learn robust market embedding incorporating both macro-level and micro-level market information. Moreover, a novel hindsight reward function is designed to provide the agent a long-term horizon for capturing the overall price trend. In addition, we propose a risk-aware auxiliary task by predicting future volatility, which helps the agent take market risk into consideration while maximizing profit. Finally, extensive experiments on two stock index futures and four treasury bond futures demonstrate that DeepScalper achieves significant improvement against many state-of-the-art approaches.

Currently, next location recommendation plays a vital role in location-based social network applications and services. Although many methods have been proposed to solve this problem, three important challenges have not been well addressed so far: (1) most existing methods are based on recurrent network, which is time-consuming to train long sequences due to not allowing for full parallelism; (2) personalized preferences generally are not considered reasonably; (3) existing methods rarely systematically studied how to efficiently utilize various auxiliary information (e.g., user ID and timestamp) in trajectory data and the spatio-temporal relations among non-consecutive locations. To address the above challenges, we propose a novel method named SanMove, a self-attention network based model, to predict the next location via capturing the long- and short-term mobility patterns of users. Specifically, SanMove introduces a long-term preference learning module, and it uses a self-attention module to capture the users long-term mobility pattern which can represent personalized location preferences of users. Meanwhile, SanMove uses a spatial-temporal guided non-invasive self-attention (STNOVA) to exploit auxiliary information to learn short-term preferences. We evaluate SanMove with two real-world datasets, and demonstrate SanMove is not only faster than the state-of-the-art RNN-based predict model but also outperforms the baselines for next location prediction.

Deep reinforcement learning (Deep RL) has recently seen significant progress in developing algorithms for generalization. However, most algorithms target a single type of generalization setting. In this work, we study generalization across three disparate task structures: (a) tasks composed of spatial and temporal compositions of regularly occurring object motions; (b) tasks composed of active perception of and navigation towards regularly occurring 3D objects; and (c) tasks composed of remembering goal-information over sequences of regularly occurring object-configurations. These diverse task structures all share an underlying idea of compositionality: task completion always involves combining recurring segments of task-oriented perception and behavior. We hypothesize that an agent can generalize within a task structure if it can discover representations that capture these recurring task-segments. For our tasks, this corresponds to representations for recognizing individual object motions, for navigation towards 3D objects, and for navigating through object-configurations. Taking inspiration from cognitive science, we term representations for recurring segments of an agent's experience, "perceptual schemas". We propose Feature Attending Recurrent Modules (FARM), which learns a state representation where perceptual schemas are distributed across multiple, relatively small recurrent modules. We compare FARM to recurrent architectures that leverage spatial attention, which reduces observation features to a weighted average over spatial positions. Our experiments indicate that our feature-attention mechanism better enables FARM to generalize across the diverse object-centric domains we study.

While generative adversarial networks (GAN) are popular for their higher sample quality as opposed to other generative models like the variational autoencoders (VAE) and Boltzmann machines, they suffer from the same difficulty of the evaluation of generated samples. Various aspects must be kept in mind, such as the quality of generated samples, the diversity of classes (within a class and among classes), the use of disentangled latent spaces, agreement of said evaluation metric with human perception, etc. In this paper, we propose a new score, namely, GM Score, which takes into various factors such as sample quality, disentangled representation, intra-class and inter-class diversity, and other metrics such as precision, recall, and F1 score are employed for discriminability of latent space of deep belief network (DBN) and restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM). The evaluation is done for different GANs (GAN, DCGAN, BiGAN, CGAN, CoupledGAN, LSGAN, SGAN, WGAN, and WGAN Improved) trained on the benchmark MNIST dataset.

We consider the task of building strong but human-like policies in multi-agent decision-making problems, given examples of human behavior. Imitation learning is effective at predicting human actions but may not match the strength of expert humans, while self-play learning and search techniques (e.g. AlphaZero) lead to strong performance but may produce policies that are difficult for humans to understand and coordinate with. We show in chess and Go that regularizing search policies based on the KL divergence from an imitation-learned policy by applying Monte Carlo tree search produces policies that have higher human prediction accuracy and are stronger than the imitation policy. We then introduce a novel regret minimization algorithm that is regularized based on the KL divergence from an imitation-learned policy, and show that applying this algorithm to no-press Diplomacy yields a policy that maintains the same human prediction accuracy as imitation learning while being substantially stronger.

In this work we continue to build upon recent advances in reinforcement learning for finite Markov processes. A common approach among previous existing algorithms, both single-actor and distributed, is to either clip rewards or to apply a transformation method on Q-functions to handle a large variety of magnitudes in real discounted returns. We theoretically show that one of the most successful methods may not yield an optimal policy if we have a non-deterministic process. As a solution, we argue that distributional reinforcement learning lends itself to remedy this situation completely. By the introduction of a conjugated distributional operator we may handle a large class of transformations for real returns with guaranteed theoretical convergence. We propose an approximating single-actor algorithm based on this operator that trains agents directly on unaltered rewards using a proper distributional metric given by the Cram\'er distance. To evaluate its performance in a stochastic setting we train agents on a suite of 55 Atari 2600 games using sticky-actions and obtain state-of-the-art performance compared to other well-known algorithms in the Dopamine framework.

Single-Agent (SA) Reinforcement Learning systems have shown outstanding results on non-stationary problems. However, Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) can surpass SA systems generally and when scaling. Furthermore, MA systems can be super-powered by collaboration, which can happen through observing others, or a communication system used to share information between collaborators. Here, we developed a distributed MA learning mechanism with the ability to communicate based on decentralised partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) and Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). Minimising the time and energy consumed by training Machine Learning models while improving performance can be achieved by collaborative MA mechanisms. We demonstrate this in a real-world scenario, an offshore wind farm, including a set of distributed wind turbines, where the objective is to maximise collective efficiency. Compared to a SA system, MA collaboration has shown significantly reduced training time and higher cumulative rewards in unseen and scaled scenarios.

Controllers for autonomous systems that operate in safety-critical settings must account for stochastic disturbances. Such disturbances are often modelled as process noise, and common assumptions are that the underlying distributions are known and/or Gaussian. In practice, however, these assumptions may be unrealistic and can lead to poor approximations of the true noise distribution. We present a novel planning method that does not rely on any explicit representation of the noise distributions. In particular, we address the problem of computing a controller that provides probabilistic guarantees on safely reaching a target. First, we abstract the continuous system into a discrete-state model that captures noise by probabilistic transitions between states. As a key contribution, we adapt tools from the scenario approach to compute probably approximately correct (PAC) bounds on these transition probabilities, based on a finite number of samples of the noise. We capture these bounds in the transition probability intervals of a so-called interval Markov decision process (iMDP). This iMDP is robust against uncertainty in the transition probabilities, and the tightness of the probability intervals can be controlled through the number of samples. We use state-of-the-art verification techniques to provide guarantees on the iMDP, and compute a controller for which these guarantees carry over to the autonomous system. Realistic benchmarks show the practical applicability of our method, even when the iMDP has millions of states or transitions.