The study of Markov processes and broadcasting on trees has deep connections to a variety of areas including statistical physics, graphical models, phylogenetic reconstruction, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, and community detection in random graphs. Notably, the celebrated Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm achieves Bayes-optimal performance for the reconstruction problem of predicting the value of the Markov process at the root of the tree from its values at the leaves. Recently, the analysis of low-degree polynomials has emerged as a valuable tool for predicting computational-to-statistical gaps. In this work, we investigate the performance of low-degree polynomials for the reconstruction problem on trees. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that there are simple tree models with $N$ leaves and bounded arity where (1) nontrivial reconstruction of the root value is possible with a simple polynomial time algorithm and with robustness to noise, but not with any polynomial of degree $N^{c}$ for $c > 0$ a constant depending only on the arity, and (2) when the tree is unknown and given multiple samples with correlated root assignments, nontrivial reconstruction of the root value is possible with a simple Statistical Query algorithm but not with any polynomial of degree $N^c$. These results clarify some of the limitations of low-degree polynomials vs. polynomial time algorithms for Bayesian estimation problems. They also complement recent work of Moitra, Mossel, and Sandon who studied the circuit complexity of Belief Propagation. As a consequence of our main result, we show that for some $c' > 0$ depending only on the arity, $\exp(N^{c'})$ many samples are needed for RBF kernel regression to obtain nontrivial correlation with the true regression function (BP). We pose related open questions about low-degree polynomials and the Kesten-Stigum threshold.

Abstract: Graph clustering is the process of grouping vertices into densely connected sets called clusters. In doing so, we obtain a heuristic approximation to the intra-cluster density maximization problem. We use two variations of a Boltzmann machine heuristic to obtain numerical solutions. For benchmarking purposes, we compare solution quality and computational performances to those obtained using a commercial solver, Gurobi. We also compare clustering quality to the clusters obtained using the popular Louvain modularity maximization method.

In probably approximately correct (PAC) reinforcement learning (RL), an agent is required to identify an $\epsilon$-optimal policy with probability $1-\delta$. While minimax optimal algorithms exist for this problem, its instance-dependent complexity remains elusive in episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs). In this paper, we propose the first nearly matching (up to a horizon squared factor and logarithmic terms) upper and lower bounds on the sample complexity of PAC RL in deterministic episodic MDPs with finite state and action spaces. In particular, our bounds feature a new notion of sub-optimality gap for state-action pairs that we call the deterministic return gap. While our instance-dependent lower bound is written as a linear program, our algorithms are very simple and do not require solving such an optimization problem during learning. Their design and analyses employ novel ideas, including graph-theoretical concepts (minimum flows) and a new maximum-coverage exploration strategy.

Geological carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), where CO$_2$ is stored in subsurface formations, is a promising and scalable approach for reducing global emissions. However, if done incorrectly, it may lead to earthquakes and leakage of CO$_2$ back to the surface, harming both humans and the environment. These risks are exacerbated by the large amount of uncertainty in the structure of the storage formation. For these reasons, we propose that CCS operations be modeled as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) and decisions be informed using automated planning algorithms. To this end, we develop a simplified model of CCS operations based on a 2D spillpoint analysis that retains many of the challenges and safety considerations of the real-world problem. We show how off-the-shelf POMDP solvers outperform expert baselines for safe CCS planning. This POMDP model can be used as a test bed to drive the development of novel decision-making algorithms for CCS operations.

In this paper, we propose and study opportunistic reinforcement learning - a new variant of reinforcement learning problems where the regret of selecting a suboptimal action varies under an external environmental condition known as the variation factor. When the variation factor is low, so is the regret of selecting a suboptimal action and vice versa. Our intuition is to exploit more when the variation factor is high, and explore more when the variation factor is low. We demonstrate the benefit of this novel framework for finite-horizon episodic MDPs by designing and evaluating OppUCRL2 and OppPSRL algorithms. Our algorithms dynamically balance the exploration-exploitation trade-off for reinforcement learning by introducing variation factor-dependent optimism to guide exploration. We establish an $\tilde{O}(HS \sqrt{AT})$ regret bound for the OppUCRL2 algorithm and show through simulations that both OppUCRL2 and OppPSRL algorithm outperform their original corresponding algorithms.

Meticulously analysing the empirical strengths and weaknesses of reinforcement learning methods in hard (challenging) environments is essential to inspire innovations and assess progress in the field. In tabular reinforcement learning, there is no well-established standard selection of environments to conduct such analysis, which is partially due to the lack of a widespread understanding of the rich theory of hardness of environments. The goal of this paper is to unlock the practical usefulness of this theory through four main contributions. First, we present a systematic survey of the theory of hardness, which also identifies promising research directions. Second, we introduce Colosseum, a pioneering package that enables empirical hardness analysis and implements a principled benchmark composed of environments that are diverse with respect to different measures of hardness. Third, we present an empirical analysis that provides new insights into computable measures. Finally, we benchmark five tabular agents in our newly proposed benchmark. While advancing the theoretical understanding of hardness in non-tabular reinforcement learning remains essential, our contributions in the tabular setting are intended as solid steps towards a principled non-tabular benchmark. Accordingly, we benchmark four agents in non-tabular versions of Colosseum environments, obtaining results that demonstrate the generality of tabular hardness measures.

In this paper, we establish the global optimality and convergence rate of an off-policy actor critic algorithm in the tabular setting without using density ratio to correct the discrepancy between the state distribution of the behavior policy and that of the target policy. Our work goes beyond existing works on the optimality of policy gradient methods in that existing works use the exact policy gradient for updating the policy parameters while we use an approximate and stochastic update step. Our update step is not a gradient update because we do not use a density ratio to correct the state distribution, which aligns well with what practitioners do. Our update is approximate because we use a learned critic instead of the true value function. Our update is stochastic because at each step the update is done for only the current state action pair. Moreover, we remove several restrictive assumptions from existing works in our analysis. Central to our work is the finite sample analysis of a generic stochastic approximation algorithm with time-inhomogeneous update operators on time-inhomogeneous Markov chains, based on its uniform contraction properties.

Abstract: Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is steadily growing as a promising technology for next-generation communication systems due to their appealing features such as wide coverage with high altitude, on-demand low-cost deployment, and fast responses. UAV communications are fundamentally different from the conventional terrestrial and satellite communications owing to the high mobility and the unique channel characteristics of air-ground links. However, obtaining effective channel state information (CSI) is challenging because of the dynamic propagation environment and variable transmission delay. In this paper, a deep learning (DL)-based CSI prediction framework is proposed to address channel aging problem by extracting the most discriminative features from the UAV wireless signals. Specifically, we develop a procedure of multiple Gaussian Bernoulli restricted Boltzmann machines (GBRBM) for dimension reduction and pre-training utilization incorporated with an autoencoder-based deep neural networks (DNNs).

Predictive coding has emerged as a prominent model of how the brain learns through predictions, anticipating the importance accorded to predictive learning in recent AI architectures such as transformers. Here we propose a new framework for predictive coding called active predictive coding which can learn hierarchical world models and solve two radically different open problems in AI: (1) how do we learn compositional representations, e.g., part-whole hierarchies, for equivariant vision? and (2) how do we solve large-scale planning problems, which are hard for traditional reinforcement learning, by composing complex action sequences from primitive policies? Our approach exploits hypernetworks, self-supervised learning and reinforcement learning to learn hierarchical world models that combine task-invariant state transition networks and task-dependent policy networks at multiple abstraction levels. We demonstrate the viability of our approach on a variety of vision datasets (MNIST, FashionMNIST, Omniglot) as well as on a scalable hierarchical planning problem. Our results represent, to our knowledge, the first demonstration of a unified solution to the part-whole learning problem posed by Hinton, the nested reference frames problem posed by Hawkins, and the integrated state-action hierarchy learning problem in reinforcement learning.

Modeling interaction dynamics to generate robot trajectories that enable a robot to adapt and react to a human's actions and intentions is critical for efficient and effective collaborative Human-Robot Interactions (HRI). Learning from Demonstration (LfD) methods from Human-Human Interactions (HHI) have shown promising results, especially when coupled with representation learning techniques. However, such methods for learning HRI either do not scale well to high dimensional data or cannot accurately adapt to changing via-poses of the interacting partner. We propose Multimodal Interactive Latent Dynamics (MILD), a method that couples deep representation learning and probabilistic machine learning to address the problem of two-party physical HRIs. We learn the interaction dynamics from demonstrations, using Hidden Semi-Markov Models (HSMMs) to model the joint distribution of the interacting agents in the latent space of a Variational Autoencoder (VAE). Our experimental evaluations for learning HRI from HHI demonstrations show that MILD effectively captures the multimodality in the latent representations of HRI tasks, allowing us to decode the varying dynamics occurring in such tasks. Compared to related work, MILD generates more accurate trajectories for the controlled agent (robot) when conditioned on the observed agent's (human) trajectory. Notably, MILD can learn directly from camera-based pose estimations to generate trajectories, which we then map to a humanoid robot without the need for any additional training.