We present explicit classes of probability distributions that can be learned by Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) depending on the number of units that they contain, and which are representative for the expressive power of the model. We use this to show that the maximal Kullback-Leibler divergence to the RBM model with n visible and m hidden units is bounded from above by (n-1)-log(m 1). In this way we can specify the number of hidden units that guarantees a sufficiently rich model containing different classes of distributions and respecting a given error tolerance.

We propose a novel Adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to compute the partition function. In particular, we show how to accelerate a flat histogram sampling technique by significantly reducing the number of null moves'' in the chain, while maintaining asymptotic convergence properties. Our experiments show that our method converges quickly to highly accurate solutions on a range of benchmark instances, outperforming other state-of-the-art methods such as IJGP, TRW, and Gibbs sampling both in run-time and accuracy. We also show how obtaining a so-called density of states distribution allows for efficient weight learning in Markov Logic theories.

We propose a novel class of Bayesian nonparametric models for sequential data called fragmentation-coagulation processes (FCPs). An FCP is exchangeable, projective, stationary and reversible, and its equilibrium distributions are given by the Chinese restaurant process. As opposed to hidden Markov models, FCPs allow for flexible modelling of the number of clusters, and they avoid label switching non-identifiability problems. We develop an efficient Gibbs sampler for FCPs which uses uniformization and the forward-backward algorithm. Our development of FCPs is motivated by applications in population genetics, and we demonstrate the utility of FCPs on problems of genotype imputation with phased and unphased SNP data.

This work considers the problem of learning the structure of multivariate linear tree models, which include a variety of directed tree graphical models with continuous, discrete, and mixed latent variables such as linear-Gaussian models, hidden Markov models, Gaussian mixture models, and Markov evolutionary trees. The setting is one where we only have samples from certain observed variables in the tree, and our goal is to estimate the tree structure (i.e., the graph of how the underlying hidden variables are connected to each other and to the observed variables). We propose the Spectral Recursive Grouping algorithm, an efficient and simple bottom-up procedure for recovering the tree structure from independent samples of the observed variables. Our finite sample size bounds for exact recovery of the tree structure reveal certain natural dependencies on underlying statistical and structural properties of the underlying joint distribution. Furthermore, our sample complexity guarantees have no explicit dependence on the dimensionality of the observed variables, making the algorithm applicable to many high-dimensional settings.

Applications such as robot control and wireless communication require planning under uncertainty. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) plan policies for single agents under uncertainty and their decentralized versions (DEC-POMDPs) find a policy for multiple agents. The policy in infinite-horizon POMDP and DEC-POMDP problems has been represented as finite state controllers (FSCs). We introduce a novel class of periodic FSCs, composed of layers connected only to the previous and next layer. Our periodic FSC method finds a deterministic finite-horizon policy and converts it to an initial periodic infinite-horizon policy.

The expected return is a widely used objective in decision making under uncer- tainty. Many algorithms, such as value iteration, have been proposed to optimize it. In risk-aware settings, however, the expected return is often not an appropriate objective to optimize. We propose a new optimization objective for risk-aware planning and show that it has desirable theoretical properties. We also draw con- nections to previously proposed objectives for risk-aware planing: minmax, ex- ponential utility, percentile and mean minus variance.

We uncover relations between robust MDPs and risk-sensitive MDPs. The objective of a robust MDP is to minimize a function, such as the expectation of cumulative cost, for the worst case when the parameters have uncertainties. The objective of a risk-sensitive MDP is to minimize a risk measure of the cumulative cost when the parameters are known. We show that a risk-sensitive MDP of minimizing the expected exponential utility is equivalent to a robust MDP of minimizing the worst-case expectation with a penalty for the deviation of the uncertain parameters from their nominal values, which is measured with the Kullback-Leibler divergence. We also show that a risk-sensitive MDP of minimizing an iterated risk measure that is composed of certain coherent risk measures is equivalent to a robust MDP of minimizing the worst-case expectation when the possible deviations of uncertain parameters from their nominal values are characterized with a concave function.

Markov logic is a widely used tool in statistical relational learning, which uses a weighted first-order logic knowledge base to specify a Markov random field (MRF) or a conditional random field (CRF). In many applications, a Markov logic network (MLN) is trained in one domain, but used in a different one. This paper focuses on dynamic Markov logic networks, where the domain of time points typically varies between training and testing. It has been previously pointed out that the marginal probabilities of truth assignments to ground atoms can change if one extends or reduces the domains of predicates in an MLN. We show that in addition to this problem, the standard way of unrolling a Markov logic theory into a MRF may result in time-inhomogeneity of the underlying Markov chain.

Probabilistic graphical models are powerful tools for analyzing constrained, continuous domains. However, finding most-probable explanations (MPEs) in these models can be computationally expensive. In this paper, we improve the scalability of MPE inference in a class of graphical models with piecewise-linear and piecewise-quadratic dependencies and linear constraints over continuous domains. We derive algorithms based on a consensus-optimization framework and demonstrate their superior performance over state of the art. We show empirically that in a large-scale voter-preference modeling problem our algorithms scale linearly in the number of dependencies and constraints.

Applications of Bayesian nonparametric methods require learning and inference algorithms which efficiently explore models of unbounded complexity. We develop new Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for the beta process hidden Markov model (BP-HMM), enabling discovery of shared activity patterns in large video and motion capture databases. By introducing split-merge moves based on sequential allocation, we allow large global changes in the shared feature structure. We also develop data-driven reversible jump moves which more reliably discover rare or unique behaviors. Our proposals apply to any choice of conjugate likelihood for observed data, and we show success with multinomial, Gaussian, and autoregressive emission models.