The problem of reducing a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to one of smaller dimension that exactly reproduces the same marginals is tackled by using a system-theoretic approach. Realization theory tools are extended to HMMs by leveraging suitable algebraic representations of probability spaces. We propose two algorithms that return coarse-grained equivalent HMMs obtained by stochastic projection operators: the first returns models that exactly reproduce the single-time distribution of a given output process, while in the second the full (multi-time) distribution is preserved. The reduction method exploits not only the structure of the observed output, but also its initial condition, whenever the latter is known or belongs to a given subclass. Optimal algorithms are derived for a class of HMM, namely observable ones.

Inferring a state sequence from a sequence of measurements is a fundamental problem in bioinformatics and natural language processing. The Viterbi and the Beam Search (BS) algorithms are popular inference methods, but they have limitations when applied to Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models (HHMMs), where the interest lies in the outer state sequence. The Viterbi algorithm can not infer outer states without inner states, while the BS algorithm requires marginalization over prohibitively large state spaces. We propose two new algorithms to overcome these limitations: the greedy marginalized BS algorithm and the local focus BS algorithm. We show that they approximate the most likely outer state sequence with higher performance than the Viterbi algorithm, and we evaluate the performance of these algorithms on an explicit duration HMM with simulation and nanopore base calling data.

The emergence of large language models (LLMs) has substantially influenced natural language processing, demonstrating exceptional results across various tasks. In this study, we employ ``Introspective Tips" to facilitate LLMs in self-optimizing their decision-making. By introspectively examining trajectories, LLM refines its policy by generating succinct and valuable tips. Our method enhances the agent's performance in both few-shot and zero-shot learning situations by considering three essential scenarios: learning from the agent's past experiences, integrating expert demonstrations, and generalizing across diverse games. Importantly, we accomplish these improvements without fine-tuning the LLM parameters; rather, we adjust the prompt to generalize insights from the three aforementioned situations. Our framework not only supports but also emphasizes the advantage of employing LLM in in-contxt decision-making. Experiments involving over 100 games in TextWorld illustrate the superior performance of our approach.

Multi-robot navigation is the task of finding trajectories for a team of robotic agents to reach their destinations as quickly as possible without collisions. In this work, we introduce a new problem: fair-delay multi-robot navigation, which aims not only to enable such efficient, safe travels but also to equalize the travel delays among agents in terms of actual trajectories as compared to the best possible trajectories. The learning of a navigation policy to achieve this objective requires resolving a nontrivial credit assignment problem with robotic agents having continuous action spaces. Hence, we developed a new algorithm called Navigation with Counterfactual Fairness Filter (NCF2). With NCF2, each agent performs counterfactual inference on whether it can advance toward its goal or should stay still to let other agents go. Doing so allows us to effectively address the aforementioned credit assignment problem and improve fairness regarding travel delays while maintaining high efficiency and safety. Our extensive experimental results in several challenging multi-robot navigation environments demonstrate the greater effectiveness of NCF2 as compared to state-of-the-art fairness-aware multi-agent reinforcement learning methods. Our demo videos and code are available on the project webpage: https://omron-sinicx.github.io/ncf2/

Decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) formalize the problem of designing individual controllers for a group of collaborative agents under stochastic dynamics and partial observability. Seeking a global optimum is difficult (NEXP complete), but seeking a Nash equilibrium -- each agent policy being a best response to the other agents -- is more accessible, and allowed addressing infinite-horizon problems with solutions in the form of finite state controllers. In this paper, we show that this approach can be adapted to cases where only a generative model (a simulator) of the Dec-POMDP is available. This requires relying on a simulation-based POMDP solver to construct an agent's FSC node by node. A related process is used to heuristically derive initial FSCs. Experiment with benchmarks shows that MC-JESP is competitive with exisiting Dec-POMDP solvers, even better than many offline methods using explicit models.

A Markov network characterizes the conditional independence structure, or Markov property, among a set of random variables. Existing work focuses on specific families of distributions (e.g., exponential families) and/or certain structures of graphs, and most of them can only handle variables of a single data type (continuous or discrete). In this work, we characterize the conditional independence structure in general distributions for all data types (i.e., continuous, discrete, and mixed-type) with a Generalized Precision Matrix (GPM). Besides, we also allow general functional relations among variables, thus giving rise to a Markov network structure learning algorithm in one of the most general settings. To deal with the computational challenge of the problem, especially for large graphs, we unify all cases under the same umbrella of a regularized score matching framework. We validate the theoretical results and demonstrate the scalability empirically in various settings.

Diffusions are a successful technique to sample from high-dimensional distributions can be either explicitly given or learnt from a collection of samples. They implement a diffusion process whose endpoint is a sample from the target distribution and whose drift is typically represented as a neural network. Stochastic localization is a successful technique to prove mixing of Markov Chains and other functional inequalities in high dimension. An algorithmic version of stochastic localization was introduced in [EAMS2022], to obtain an algorithm that samples from certain statistical mechanics models. This notes have three objectives: (i) Generalize the construction [EAMS2022] to other stochastic localization processes; (ii) Clarify the connection between diffusions and stochastic localization. In particular we show that standard denoising diffusions are stochastic localizations but other examples that are naturally suggested by the proposed viewpoint; (iii) Describe some insights that follow from this viewpoint.

Typical generative diffusion models rely on a Gaussian diffusion process for training the backward transformations, which can then be used to generate samples from Gaussian noise. However, real world data often takes place in discrete-state spaces, including many scientific applications. Here, we develop a theoretical formulation for arbitrary discrete-state Markov processes in the forward diffusion process using exact (as opposed to variational) analysis. We relate the theory to the existing continuous-state Gaussian diffusion as well as other approaches to discrete diffusion, and identify the corresponding reverse-time stochastic process and score function in the continuous-time setting, and the reverse-time mapping in the discrete-time setting. As an example of this framework, we introduce ``Blackout Diffusion'', which learns to produce samples from an empty image instead of from noise. Numerical experiments on the CIFAR-10, Binarized MNIST, and CelebA datasets confirm the feasibility of our approach. Generalizing from specific (Gaussian) forward processes to discrete-state processes without a variational approximation sheds light on how to interpret diffusion models, which we discuss.

To solve this problem, there are two main classes of computational methods that provide different approaches to approximate π. The first one is Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods (Metropolis et al., 1953; Hastings, 1970; Robert and Casella, 1999). For many years, MCMC has been the standard approach for Bayesian analysis because of its theoretical soundness. The method constructs a Markov chain to produce simulation consistent samples from the target distribution π. A general MCMC approach is the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm that generates a Markov chain by first generating a proposed state from a proposal distribution, then using an acceptance rule to decide whether to accept the proposal or stay at the current state (Robert and Casella, 1999).

We introduce Dynamic Contextual Markov Decision Processes (DCMDPs), a novel reinforcement learning framework for history-dependent environments that generalizes the contextual MDP framework to handle non-Markov environments, where contexts change over time. We consider special cases of the model, with a focus on logistic DCMDPs, which break the exponential dependence on history length by leveraging aggregation functions to determine context transitions. This special structure allows us to derive an upper-confidence-bound style algorithm for which we establish regret bounds. Motivated by our theoretical results, we introduce a practical model-based algorithm for logistic DCMDPs that plans in a latent space and uses optimism over history-dependent features. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on a recommendation task (using MovieLens data) where user behavior dynamics evolve in response to recommendations.