Models of many real-life applications, such as queuing models of communication networks or computing systems, have a countably infinite state-space. Algorithmic and learning procedures that have been developed to produce optimal policies mainly focus on finite state settings, and do not directly apply to these models. To overcome this lacuna, in this work we study the problem of optimal control of a family of discrete-time countable state-space Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) governed by an unknown parameter $\theta\in\Theta$, and defined on a countably-infinite state space $\mathcal X=\mathbb{Z}_+^d$, with finite action space $\mathcal A$, and an unbounded cost function. We take a Bayesian perspective with the random unknown parameter $\boldsymbol{\theta}^*$ generated via a given fixed prior distribution on $\Theta$. To optimally control the unknown MDP, we propose an algorithm based on Thompson sampling with dynamically-sized episodes: at the beginning of each episode, the posterior distribution formed via Bayes' rule is used to produce a parameter estimate, which then decides the policy applied during the episode. To ensure the stability of the Markov chain obtained by following the policy chosen for each parameter, we impose ergodicity assumptions. From this condition and using the solution of the average cost Bellman equation, we establish an $\tilde O(\sqrt{|\mathcal A|T})$ upper bound on the Bayesian regret of our algorithm, where $T$ is the time-horizon. Finally, to elucidate the applicability of our algorithm, we consider two different queuing models with unknown dynamics, and show that our algorithm can be applied to develop approximately optimal control algorithms.

Identifying the infection status of each individual during infectious diseases informs public health management. However, performing frequent individual-level tests may not be feasible. Instead, sparse and sometimes group-level tests are performed. Determining the infection status of individuals using sparse group-level tests remains an open problem. We have tackled this problem by extending graph-coupled hidden Markov models with individuals infection statuses as the hidden states and the group test results as the observations. We fitted the model to simulation datasets using the Gibbs sampling method. The model performed about 0.55 AUC for low testing frequencies and increased to 0.80 AUC in the case where the groups were tested every day. The model was separately tested on a daily basis case to predict the statuses over time and after 15 days of the beginning of the spread, which resulted in 0.98 AUC at day 16 and remained above 0.80 AUC until day 128. Therefore, although dealing with sparse tests remains unsolved, the results open the possibility of using initial group screenings during pandemics to accurately estimate individuals infection statuses.

In fully cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) settings, environments are highly stochastic due to the partial observability of each agent and the continuously changing policies of other agents. To address the above issues, we proposed a unified framework, called DFAC, for integrating distributional RL with value function factorization methods. This framework generalizes expected value function factorization methods to enable the factorization of return distributions. To validate DFAC, we first demonstrate its ability to factorize the value functions of a simple matrix game with stochastic rewards. Then, we perform experiments on all Super Hard maps of the StarCraft Multi-Agent Challenge and six self-designed Ultra Hard maps, showing that DFAC is able to outperform a number of baselines.

Reinforcement learning agents may sometimes develop habits that are effective only when specific policies are followed. After an initial exploration phase in which agents try out different actions, they eventually converge toward a particular policy. When this occurs, the distribution of state-action trajectories becomes narrower, and agents start experiencing the same transitions again and again. At this point, spurious correlations may arise. Agents may then pick up on these correlations and learn state representations that do not generalize beyond the agent's trajectory distribution. In this paper, we provide a mathematical characterization of this phenomenon, which we refer to as policy confounding, and show, through a series of examples, when and how it occurs in practice.

We study finite episodic Markov decision processes incorporating dynamic risk measures to capture risk sensitivity. To this end, we present two model-based algorithms applied to \emph{Lipschitz} dynamic risk measures, a wide range of risk measures that subsumes spectral risk measure, optimized certainty equivalent, distortion risk measures among others. We establish both regret upper bounds and lower bounds. Notably, our upper bounds demonstrate optimal dependencies on the number of actions and episodes, while reflecting the inherent trade-off between risk sensitivity and sample complexity. Additionally, we substantiate our theoretical results through numerical experiments.

Traffic prediction plays a crucial role in alleviating traffic congestion which represents a critical problem globally, resulting in negative consequences such as lost hours of additional travel time and increased fuel consumption. Integrating emerging technologies into transportation systems provides opportunities for improving traffic prediction significantly and brings about new research problems. In order to lay the foundation for understanding the open research challenges in traffic prediction, this survey aims to provide a comprehensive overview of traffic prediction methodologies. Specifically, we focus on the recent advances and emerging research opportunities in Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based traffic prediction methods, due to their recent success and potential in traffic prediction, with an emphasis on multivariate traffic time series modeling. We first provide a list and explanation of the various data types and resources used in the literature. Next, the essential data preprocessing methods within the traffic prediction context are categorized, and the prediction methods and applications are subsequently summarized. Lastly, we present primary research challenges in traffic prediction and discuss some directions for future research.

A key component of model-based reinforcement learning (RL) is a dynamics model that predicts the outcomes of actions. Errors in this predictive model can degrade the performance of model-based controllers, and complex Markov decision processes (MDPs) can present exceptionally difficult prediction problems. To mitigate this issue, we propose predictable MDP abstraction (PMA): instead of training a predictive model on the original MDP, we train a model on a transformed MDP with a learned action space that only permits predictable, easy-to-model actions, while covering the original state-action space as much as possible. As a result, model learning becomes easier and more accurate, which allows robust, stable model-based planning or model-based RL. This transformation is learned in an unsupervised manner, before any task is specified by the user. Downstream tasks can then be solved with model-based control in a zero-shot fashion, without additional environment interactions. We theoretically analyze PMA and empirically demonstrate that PMA leads to significant improvements over prior unsupervised model-based RL approaches in a range of benchmark environments. Our code and videos are available at https://seohong.me/projects/pma/

This paper presents ATEM, a novel framework for studying topic evolution in scientific archives. ATEM is based on dynamic topic modeling and dynamic graph embedding techniques that explore the dynamics of content and citations of documents within a scientific corpus. ATEM explores a new notion of contextual emergence for the discovery of emerging interdisciplinary research topics based on the dynamics of citation links in topic clusters. Our experiments show that ATEM can efficiently detect emerging cross-disciplinary topics within the DBLP archive of over five million computer science articles.

Hit rate is a key performance metric in predicting process product quality in integrated industrial processes. It represents the percentage of products accepted by downstream processes within a controlled range of quality. However, optimizing hit rate is a non-convex and challenging problem. To address this issue, we propose a data-driven quasi-convex approach that combines factorial hidden Markov models, multitask elastic net, and quasi-convex optimization. Our approach converts the original non-convex problem into a set of convex feasible problems, achieving an optimal hit rate. We verify the convex optimization property and quasi-convex frontier through Monte Carlo simulations and real-world experiments in steel production. Results demonstrate that our approach outperforms classical models, improving hit rates by at least 41.11% and 31.01% on two real datasets. Furthermore, the quasi-convex frontier provides a reference explanation and visualization for the deterioration of solutions obtained by conventional models.

Existing user simulators (USs) for task-oriented dialogue systems only model user behaviour on semantic and natural language levels without considering the user persona and emotions. Optimising dialogue systems with generic user policies, which cannot model diverse user behaviour driven by different emotional states, may result in a high drop-off rate when deployed in the real world. Thus, we present EmoUS, a user simulator that learns to simulate user emotions alongside user behaviour. EmoUS generates user emotions, semantic actions, and natural language responses based on the user goal, the dialogue history, and the user persona. By analysing what kind of system behaviour elicits what kind of user emotions, we show that EmoUS can be used as a probe to evaluate a variety of dialogue systems and in particular their effect on the user's emotional state. Developing such methods is important in the age of large language model chat-bots and rising ethical concerns.