Graphs have been commonly used to represent complex data structures. In models dealing with graph-structured data, multivariate parameters may not only exhibit sparse patterns but have structured sparsity and smoothness in the sense that both zero and non-zero parameters tend to cluster together. We propose a new prior for high-dimensional parameters with graphical relations, referred to as the Treebased Low-rank Horseshoe (T-LoHo) model, that generalizes the popular univariate Bayesian horseshoe shrinkage prior to the multivariate setting to detect structured sparsity and smoothness simultaneously. The T-LoHo prior can be embedded in many high-dimensional hierarchical models. To illustrate its utility, we apply it to regularize a Bayesian high-dimensional regression problem where the regression coefficients are linked by a graph, so that the resulting clusters have flexible shapes and satisfy the cluster contiguity constraint with respect to the graph. We design an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that delivers full Bayesian inference with uncertainty measures for model parameters such as the number of clusters. We offer theoretical investigations of the clustering effects and posterior concentration results. Finally, we illustrate the performance of the model with simulation studies and a real data application for anomaly detection on a road network. The results indicate substantial improvements over other competing methods such as the sparse fused lasso.

Much of reinforcement learning theory is built on top of oracles that are computationally hard to implement. Specifically for learning near-optimal policies in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), existing algorithms either need to make strong assumptions about the model dynamics (e.g.

Much of reinforcement learning theory is built on top of oracles that are computationally hard to implement. Specifically for learning near-optimal policies in Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), existing algorithms either need to make strong assumptions about the model dynamics (e.g.

We show that Deep Neural Networks introduce two heteroscedastic Gumbel noise sources into Q-Learning. To account for these noise sources, we propose Double Gumbel Q-Learning, a Deep Q-Learning algorithm applicable for both discrete and continuous control. In discrete control, we derive a closed-form expression for the loss function of our algorithm. In continuous control, this loss function is intractable and we therefore derive an approximation with a hyperparameter whose value regulates pessimism in Q-Learning. We present a default value for our pessimism hyperparameter that enables DoubleGum to outperform DDPG, TD3, SAC, XQL, quantile regression, and Mixture-of-Gaussian Critics in aggregate over 33 tasks from DeepMind Control, MuJoCo, MetaWorld, and Box2D and show that tuning this hyperparameter may further improve sample efficiency.

We present an exact Bayesian inference method for discrete statistical models, which can find exact solutions to a large class of discrete inference problems, even with infinite support and continuous priors. To express such models, we introduce a probabilistic programming language that supports discrete and continuous sampling, discrete observations, affine functions, (stochastic) branching, and conditioning on discrete events. Our key tool is probability generating functions: they provide a compact closed-form representation of distributions that are definable by programs, thus enabling the exact computation of posterior probabilities, expectation, variance, and higher moments. Our inference method is provably correct and fully automated in a tool called Genfer, which uses automatic differentiation (specifically, Taylor polynomials), but does not require computer algebra. Our experiments show that Genfer is often faster than the existing exact inference tools PSI, Dice, and Prodigy. On a range of real-world inference problems that none of these exact tools can solve, Genfer's performance is competitive with approximate Monte Carlo methods, while avoiding approximation errors.

We study the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) for episodic Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) with continuous states. Motivated by the recently proposed proximal causal inference framework, we develop a non-parametric identification result for estimating the policy value via a sequence of so-called V-bridge functions with the help of time-dependent proxy variables. We then develop a fitted-Q-evaluation-type algorithm to estimate V-bridge functions recursively, where a non-parametric instrumental variable (NPIV) problem is solved at each step. By analyzing this challenging sequential NPIV problem, we establish the finite-sample error bounds for estimating the V-bridge functions and accordingly that for evaluating the policy value, in terms of the sample size, length of horizon and so-called (local) measure of ill-posedness at each step. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first finite-sample error bound for OPE in POMDPs under non-parametric models.

We present a novel actor-critic algorithm for an environment with delayed feedback, which addresses the state-space explosion problem of conventional approaches. Conventional approaches use an augmented state constructed from the last observed state and actions executed since visiting the last observed state Using the augmented state space, the correct Markov decision process for delayed environments can be constructed; however, this causes the state space to explode as the number of delayed timesteps increases, leading to slow convergence. Our proposed algorithm, called Belief-Projection-Based Q-learning (BPQL), addresses the state-space explosion problem by evaluating the values of the critic for which the input state size is equal to the original state-space size rather than that of the augmented one. We compare BPQL to traditional approaches in continuous control tasks and demonstrate that it significantly outperforms other algorithms in terms of asymptotic performance and sample efficiency. We also show that BPQL solves long-delayed environments, which conventional approaches are unable to do.