Liquid democracy with ranked delegations is a novel voting scheme that unites the practicability of representative democracy with the idealistic appeal of direct democracy: Every voter decides between casting their vote on a question at hand or delegating their voting weight to some other, trusted agent. Delegations are transitive, and since voters may end up in a delegation cycle, they are encouraged to indicate not only a single delegate, but a set of potential delegates and a ranking among them. Based on the delegation preferences of all voters, a delegation rule selects one representative per voter. Previous work has revealed a trade-off between two properties of delegation rules called anonymity and copy-robustness. To overcome this issue we study two fractional delegation rules: MIXEDBORDA BRANCHING, which generalizes a rule satisfying copy-robustness, and the RANDOMWALKRULE, which satisfies anonymity. Using the Markov chain tree theorem, we show that the two rules are in fact equivalent, and simultaneously satisfy generalized versions of the two properties. Combining the same theorem with Fulkerson's algorithm, we develop a polynomial-time algorithm for computing the outcome of the studied delegation rule. This algorithm is of independent interest, having applications in semi-supervised learning and graph theory.

We study distributionally robust offline reinforcement learning (RL), which seeks to find an optimal robust policy purely from an offline dataset that can perform well in perturbed environments. We propose a generic algorithm framework Doubly Pessimistic Model-based Policy Optimization (P2MPO) for robust offline RL, which features a novel combination of a flexible model estimation subroutine and a doubly pessimistic policy optimization step. Here the double pessimism principle is crucial to overcome the distribution shift incurred by i) the mismatch between behavior policy and the family of target policies; and ii) the perturbation of the nominal model. Under certain accuracy assumptions on the model estimation subroutine, we show that P2MPOis provably sample-efficient with robust partial coverage data, which means that the offline dataset has good coverage of the distributions induced by the optimal robust policy and perturbed models around the nominal model. By tailoring specific model estimation subroutines for concrete examples including tabular Robust Markov Decision Process (RMDP), factored RMDP, and RMDP with kernel and neural function approximations, we show that P2MPO enjoys a eO(n 1/2) convergence rate, where nis the number of trajectories in the offline dataset. Notably, these models, except for the tabular case, are first identified and proven tractable by this paper. To the best of our knowledge, we first propose a general learning principle -- double pessimism -- for robust offline RL and show that it is provably efficient in the context of general function approximations.

Incorporating causality into reinforcement learning methods increases the interpretability of artificial636 intelligence, which helps humans understand the underlying mechanism of algorithms and check637 the source of failures. However, the learned causal transition model may contain human-readable638 private information about the environment, which could raise privacy issues. To mitigate this potential639 negative societal impact, the causal transition model needs to be encrypted and only accessible to640 algorithms and trustworthy users.641 In this section, besides the most related formulation, robust RL introduced in Sec 3.3, we also643 introduce some other related RL problem formulations partially shown in Figure 3. Then, we limit644 our discussion to mainly two lines of work that are related to ours: (1) promoting robustness in RL;645 (2) concerning the spurious correlation issues in RL.646 B.1 Related RL formulations647 Robustness to noisy state: POMDPs and SA-MDPs.

Robustness has been extensively studied in reinforcement learning (RL) to handle various forms of uncertainty such as random perturbations, rare events, and malicious attacks. In this work, we consider one critical type of robustness against spurious correlation, where different portions of the state do not have correlations induced by unobserved confounders. These spurious correlations are ubiquitous in real-world tasks, for instance, a self-driving car usually observes heavy traffic in the daytime and light traffic at night due to unobservable human activity. A model that learns such useless or even harmful correlation could catastrophically fail when the confounder in the test case deviates from the training one. Although motivated, enabling robustness against spurious correlation poses significant challenges since the uncertainty set, shaped by the unobserved confounder and causal structure, is difficult to characterize and identify. Existing robust algorithms that assume simple and unstructured uncertainty sets are therefore inadequate to address this challenge. To solve this issue, we propose Robust State-Confounded Markov Decision Processes (RSC-MDPs) and theoretically demonstrate its superiority in avoiding learning spurious correlations compared with other robust RL counterparts. We also design an empirical algorithm to learn the robust optimal policy for RSC-MDPs, which outperforms all baselines in eight realistic self-driving and manipulation tasks. Please refer to the website for more details.

What are the functionals of the reward that can be computed and optimized exactly in Markov Decision Processes? In the finite-horizon, undiscounted setting, Dynamic Programming (DP) can only handle these operations efficiently for certain classes of statistics. We summarize the characterization of these classes for policy evaluation, and give a new answer for the planning problem. Interestingly, we prove that only generalized means can be optimized exactly, even in the more general framework of Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DistRL). DistRL permits, however, to evaluate other functionals approximately. We provide error bounds on the resulting estimators, and discuss the potential of this approach as well as its limitations. These results contribute to advancing the theory of Markov Decision Processes by examining overall characteristics of the return, and particularly risk-conscious strategies.

Whether or not a country is at war, or experiencing escalating or deescalating levels of conflict, has massive ramifications on a country's national and foreign policy. Given a country's history of conflict, or lack thereof, future predictions about the war-status of a country are valuable information. In this paper, we present the use of conformal prediction on temporally-dependent data to obtain prediction sets of possible future conflict state-sequences. More specifically, we compare the results of conformal prediction to a likelihood-based prediction strategy when the data are assumed to come from a discrete-state Markov process. A point-prediction may not supply sufficient information because the penalty for a wrong prediction is extreme, and so we consider a machine learning alternative that gives valid uncertainty quantification and is robust to model misspecification. In the data analysis, we present real forecasts of conflict dynamics across multiple countries. Lastly, we comment on the possible limitations of existing approaches for applying conformal prediction to Markovian data, where the exchangeability assumption is violated.

Making good decisions in partially observable and non-deterministic scenarios is a crucial capability for robots. APartially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) is a general framework for the above problem. Despite advances in POMDP solving, problems with long planning horizons and evolving environments remain difficult to solve even by the best approximate solvers today. To alleviate this difficulty, we propose a slightly modified POMDP problem, called a ReferenceBased POMDP, where the objective is to balance between maximizing the expected total reward and being close to a given reference (stochastic) policy. The optimal policy of a Reference-Based POMDP can be computed via iterative expectations using the given reference policy, thereby avoiding exhaustive enumeration of actions at each belief node of the search tree. We demonstrate theoretically that the standard POMDP under stochastic policies is related to the Reference-Based POMDP. To demonstrate the feasibility of exploiting the formulation, we present a basic algorithm REFSOLVER. Results from experiments on long-horizon navigation problems indicate that this basic algorithm substantially outperforms POMCP.

Unsupervised pre-training methods utilizing large and diverse datasets have achieved tremendous success across a range of domains. Recent work has investigated such unsupervised pre-training methods for model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) but is limited to domain-specific or simulated data. In this paper, we study the problem of pre-training world models with abundant in-the-wild videos for efficient learning of downstream visual control tasks. However, inthe-wild videos are complicated with various contextual factors, such as intricate backgrounds and textured appearance, which precludes a world model from extracting shared world knowledge to generalize better. To tackle this issue, we introduce Contextualized World Models (ContextWM) that explicitly separate context and dynamics modeling to overcome the complexity and diversity of in-the-wild videos and facilitate knowledge transfer between distinct scenes. Specifically, a contextualized extension of the latent dynamics model is elaborately realized by incorporating a context encoder to retain contextual information and empower the image decoder, which encourages the latent dynamics model to concentrate on essential temporal variations. Our experiments show that in-the-wild video pre-training equipped with ContextWM can significantly improve the sample efficiency of MBRL in various domains, including robotic manipulation, locomotion, and autonomous driving.