Many practical modeling problems involve discrete data that are best represented as draws from multinomial or categorical distributions. For example, nucleotides in a DNA sequence, children's names in a given state and year, and text documents are all commonly modeled with multinomial distributions. In all of these cases, we expect some form of dependency between the draws: the nucleotide at one position in the DNA strand may depend on the preceding nucleotides, children's names are highly correlated from year to year, and topics in text may be correlated and dynamic. These dependencies are not naturally captured by the typical Dirichlet-multinomial formulation. Here, we leverage a logistic stick-breaking representation and recent innovations in P olya-gamma augmentation to reformulate the multinomial distribution in terms of latent variables with jointly Gaussian likelihoods, enabling us to take advantage of a host of Bayesian inference techniques for Gaussian models with minimal overhead.

We propose the infinite factorial dynamic model (iFDM), a general Bayesian nonparametric model for source separation. Our model builds on the Markov Indian buffet process to consider a potentially unbounded number of hidden Markov chains (sources) that evolve independently according to some dynamics, in which the state space can be either discrete or continuous. For posterior inference, we develop an algorithm based on particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling that can be efficiently applied to a wide range of source separation problems. We evaluate the performance of our iFDM on four well-known applications: multitarget tracking, cocktail party, power disaggregation, and multiuser detection. Our experimental results show that our approach for source separation does not only outperform previous approaches, but it can also handle problems that were computationally intractable for existing approaches.

We introduce a framework for inference in general state-space hidden Markov models (HMMs) under likelihood misspecification.

Predicting individualized potential outcomes in sequential decision-making is central for optimizing therapeutic decisions in personalized medicine (e.g., which dosing sequence to give to a cancer patient). However, predicting potential outcomes over long horizons is notoriously difficult. Existing methods that break the curse of the horizon typically lack strong theoretical guarantees such as orthogonality and quasi-oracle efficiency. In this paper, we revisit the problem of predicting individualized potential outcomes in sequential decision-making (i.e., estimating Q-functions in Markov decision processes with observational data) through a causal inference lens. In particular, we develop a comprehensive theoretical foundation for meta-learners in this setting with a focus on beneficial theoretical properties. As a result, we yield a novel meta-learner called DRQ-learner and establish that it is: (1) doubly robust (i.e., valid inference under the misspecification of one of the nuisances), (2) Neyman-orthogonal (i.e., insensitive to first-order estimation errors in the nuisance functions), and (3) achieves quasi-oracle efficiency (i.e., behaves asymptotically as if the ground-truth nuisance functions were known). Our DRQ-learner is applicable to settings with both discrete and continuous state spaces. Further, our DRQ-learner is flexible and can be used together with arbitrary machine learning models (e.g., neural networks). We validate our theoretical results through numerical experiments, thereby showing that our meta-learner outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.

The Metropolis-within-Gibbs (MwG) algorithm is a widely used Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for sampling from high-dimensional distributions when exact conditional sampling is intractable. We study MwG with Random Walk Metropolis (RWM) updates, using proposal variances tuned to match the target's conditional variances. Assuming the target $π$ is a $d$-dimensional log-concave distribution with condition number $κ$, we establish a spectral gap lower bound of order $\mathcal{O}(1/κd)$ for the random-scan version of MwG, improving on the previously available $\mathcal{O}(1/κ^2 d)$ bound. This is obtained by developing sharp estimates of the conductance of one-dimensional RWM kernels, which can be of independent interest. The result shows that MwG can mix substantially faster with variance-adaptive proposals and that its mixing performance is just a constant factor worse than that of the exact Gibbs sampler, thus providing theoretical support to previously observed empirical behavior.

Reinforcement learning in partially observable environments requires agents to act under uncertainty from noisy, incomplete observations. Asymmetric actor-critic methods leverage privileged information during training to improve learning under these conditions. However, existing approaches typically assume full-state access during training. In this work, we challenge this assumption by proposing a novel actor-critic framework, called informed asymmetric actor-critic, that enables conditioning the critic on arbitrary privileged signals without requiring access to the full state. We show that policy gradients remain unbiased under this formulation, extending the theoretical foundation of asymmetric methods to the more general case of privileged partial information. To quantify the impact of such signals, we propose informativeness measures based on kernel methods and return prediction error, providing practical tools for evaluating training-time signals. We validate our approach empirically on benchmark navigation tasks and synthetic partially observable environments, showing that our informed asymmetric method improves learning efficiency and value estimation when informative privileged inputs are available. Our findings challenge the necessity of full-state access and open new directions for designing asymmetric reinforcement learning methods that are both practical and theoretically sound.

Mobile ground robots lacking prior knowledge of an environment must rely on sensor data to develop a model of their surroundings. In these scenarios, consistent identification of obstacles and terrain features can be difficult due to noise and algorithmic shortcomings, which can make it difficult for motion planning systems to generate safe motions. One particular difficulty to overcome is when regions of the cost map switch between being marked as obstacles and free space through successive planning cycles. One potential solution to this, which we refer to as Valid in Every Hypothesis (VEH), is for the planning system to plan motions that are guaranteed to be safe through a history of world models. Another approach is to track a history of world models, and adjust node costs according to the potential penalty of needing to reroute around previously hazardous areas. This work discusses three major iterations on this idea. The first iteration, called PEH, invokes a sub-search for every node expansion that crosses through a divergence point in the world models. The second and third iterations, called GEH and GEGRH respectively, defer the sub-search until after an edge expands into the goal region. GEGRH uses an additional step to revise the graph based on divergent nodes in each world. Initial results showed that, although PEH and GEH find more optimistic solutions than VEH, they are unable to generate solutions in less than one-second, which exceeds our requirements for field deployment. Analysis of results from a field experiment in an unstructured, off-road environment on a Clearpath Robotics Warthog UGV indicate that GEGRH finds lower cost trajectories and has faster average planning times than VEH. Compared to single-hypothesis (SH) search, where only the latest world model is considered, GEGRH generates more conservative plans with a small increase in average planning time.

The appearance of transformer-based models in Reinforcement Learning (RL) has expanded the horizons of possibilities in robotics tasks, but it has simultaneously brought a wide range of challenges during its implementation, especially in model-free online RL. Some of the existing learning algorithms cannot be easily implemented with transformer-based models due to the instability of the latter. In this paper, we propose a method that uses the Accelerator policy as a transformer's trainer. The Accelerator, a simpler and more stable model, interacts with the environment independently while simultaneously training the transformer through behavior cloning during the first stage of the proposed algorithm. In the second stage, the pre-trained transformer starts to interact with the environment in a fully online setting. As a result, this model-free algorithm accelerates the transformer in terms of its performance and helps it to train online in a more stable and faster way. By conducting experiments on both state-based and image-based ManiSkill environments, as well as on MuJoCo tasks in MDP and POMDP settings, we show that applying our algorithm not only enables stable training of transformers but also reduces training time on image-based environments by up to a factor of two. Moreover, it decreases the required replay buffer size in off-policy methods to 10-20 thousand, which significantly lowers the overall computational demands. The code is available at: github.com/Dzelezetsky/