We propose a nonlinear generative model for human motion data that uses an undirected model with binary latent variables and real-valued "visible" variables that represent joint angles. The latent and visible variables at each time step receive directed connections from the visible variables at the last few time-steps. Such an architecture makes online inference efficient and allows us to use a simple approximate learning procedure. After training, the model finds a single set of parameters that simultaneously capture several different kinds of motion. We demonstrate the power of our approach by synthesizing various motion sequences and by performing online filling in of data lost during motion capture.

We present a new statistical framework called hidden Markov Dirichlet process (HMDP) to jointly model the genetic recombinations among possibly infinite number of founders and the coalescence-with-mutation events in the resulting genealogies. The HMDP posits that a haplotype of genetic markers is generated by a sequence of recombination events that select an ancestor for each locus from an unbounded set of founders according to a 1st-order Markov transition process. Conjoining this process with a mutation model, our method accommodates both between-lineage recombination and within-lineage sequence variations, and leads to a compact and natural interpretation of the population structure and inheritance process underlying haplotype data. We have developed an efficient sampling algorithm for HMDP based on a two-level nested Pólya urn scheme. On both simulated and real SNP haplotype data, our method performs competitively or significantly better than extant methods in uncovering the recombination hotspots along chromosomal loci; and in addition it also infers the ancestral genetic patterns and offers a highly accurate map of ancestral compositions of modern populations.

Starting with the work of Jaakkola and Haussler, a variety of approaches have been proposed for coupling domain-specific generative models with statistical learning methods. The link is established by a kernel function which provides a similarity measure based inherently on the underlying model. In computational biology, the full promise of this framework has rarely ever been exploited, as most kernels are derived from very generic models, such as sequence profiles or hidden Markov models. Here, we introduce the MTreeMix kernel, which is based on a generative model tailored to the underlying biological mechanism.

Current road-traffic optimisation practice around the world is a combination of hand tuned policies with a small degree of automatic adaption. Even state-ofthe-art research controllers need good models of the road traffic, which cannot be obtained directly from existing sensors. We use a policy-gradient reinforcement learning approach to directly optimise the traffic signals, mapping currently deployed sensor observations to control signals. Our trained controllers are (theoretically) compatible with the traffic system used in Sydney and many other cities around the world. We apply two policy-gradient methods: (1) the recent natural actor-critic algorithm, and (2) a vanilla policy-gradient algorithm for comparison. Along the way we extend natural-actor critic approaches to work for distributed and online infinite-horizon problems.

Scoring structures of undirected graphical models by means of evaluating the marginal likelihood is very hard. The main reason is the presence of the partition function which is intractable to evaluate, let alone integrate over. We propose to approximate the marginal likelihood by employing two levels of approximation: we assume normality of the posterior (the Laplace approximation) and approximate all remaining intractable quantities using belief propagation and the linear response approximation.

The local statistical properties of photographic images, when represented in a multi-scale basis, have been described using Gaussian scale mixtures (GSMs). Here, we use this local description to construct a global field of Gaussian scale mixtures (FoGSM).

Markov networks are commonly used in a wide variety of applications, ranging from computer vision, to natural language, to computational biology. In most current applications, even those that rely heavily on learned models, the structure of the Markov network is constructed by hand, due to the lack of effective algorithms for learning Markov network structure from data. In this paper, we provide a computationally efficient method for learning Markov network structure from data.

Everyday inductive reasoning draws on many kinds of knowledge, including knowledge about relationships between properties and knowledge about relationships between objects. Previous accounts of inductive reasoning generally focus on just one kind of knowledge: models of causal reasoning often focus on relationships between properties, and models of similarity-based reasoning often focus on similarity relationships between objects. We present a Bayesian model of inductive reasoning that incorporates both kinds of knowledge, and show that it accounts well for human inferences about the properties of biological species.

Human listeners have the extraordinary ability to hear and recognize speech even when more than one person is talking. Their machine counterparts have historically been unable to compete with this ability, until now. We present a modelbased system that performs on par with humans in the task of separating speech of two talkers from a single-channel recording.

We consider the problem of training a conditional random field (CRF) to maximize per-label predictive accuracy on a training set, an approach motivated by the principle of empirical risk minimization. We give a gradient-based procedure for minimizing an arbitrarily accurate approximation of the empirical risk under a Hamming loss function. In experiments with both simulated and real data, our optimization procedure gives significantly better testing performance than several current approaches for CRF training, especially in situations of high label noise.