We present a theoretical analysis of Maximum a Posteriori (MAP) sequence estimation for binary symmetric hidden Markov processes. We reduce the MAP estimation to the energy minimization of an appropriately defined Ising spin model, and focus on the performance of MAP as characterized by its accuracy and the number of solutions corresponding to a typical observed sequence. It is shown that for a finite range of sufficiently low noise levels, the solution is uniquely related to the observed sequence, while the accuracy degrades linearly with increasing the noise strength. For intermediate noise values, the accuracy is nearly noise-independent, but now there are exponentially many solutions to the estimation problem, which is reflected in non-zero ground-state entropy for the Ising model. Finally, for even larger noise intensities, the number of solutions reduces again, but the accuracy is poor. It is shown that these regimes are different thermodynamic phases of the Ising model that are related to each other via first-order phase transitions.

General-purpose, intelligent, learning agents cycle through sequences of observations, actions, and rewards that are complex, uncertain, unknown, and non-Markovian. On the other hand, reinforcement learning is well-developed for small finite state Markov decision processes (MDPs). Up to now, extracting the right state representations out of bare observations, that is, reducing the general agent setup to the MDP framework, is an art that involves significant effort by designers. The primary goal of this work is to automate the reduction process and thereby significantly expand the scope of many existing reinforcement learning algorithms and the agents that employ them. Before we can think of mechanizing this search for suitable MDPs, we need a formal objective criterion. The main contribution of this article is to develop such a criterion. I also integrate the various parts into one learning algorithm. Extensions to more realistic dynamic Bayesian networks are developed in Part II [Hut09c]. The role of POMDPs is also considered there.

We present a novel approach for learning nonlinear dynamic models, which leads to a new set of tools capable of solving problems that are otherwise difficult. We provide theory showing this new approach is consistent for models with long range structure, and apply the approach to motion capture and high-dimensional video data, yielding results superior to standard alternatives.

In this paper, we present an application of neural networks in the renewable energy domain. We have developed a methodology for the daily prediction of global solar radiation on a horizontal surface. We use an ad-hoc time series preprocessing and a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) in order to predict solar radiation at daily horizon. First results are promising with nRMSE < 21% and RMSE < 998 Wh/m2. Our optimized MLP presents prediction similar to or even better than conventional methods such as ARIMA techniques, Bayesian inference, Markov chains and k-Nearest-Neighbors approximators. Moreover we found that our data preprocessing approach can reduce significantly forecasting errors.

Partially observable stochastic games (POSGs) provide a rich mathematical framework for planning under uncertainty by a group of agents. However, this modeling advantage comes with a price, namely computation cost. Solving POSGs optimally quickly becomes intractable after a few decision cycles. Our main contribution is to provide bounded approximation techniques which enable us to scale POSG algorithms by several orders of magnitude. We study both the general POSGs and its cooperative counterpart DEC-POMDPs. Experiments on a number of problems confirm the scalability of our approach while still providing useful policies.

Semi-supervised learning is an active research field. Previous results shown that unite background information into the original unsupervised clustering problem could archive higher accuracy. In this paper, we explore the cooperation between the pairwise constrains given by the user and the sematic information in natural language. In addition, we reduce the time complexity to make the algorithm feasible for large quantities of data. Experiments on different scales of corpus show the robustness and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, which the F-measure archives 20% higher than previous algorithms.

While team action recognition has a relatively extended literature, less attention has been given to the detailed realtime analysis of the internal structure of the team actions.  This includes recognizing the current state of the action, predicting the next state, recognizing deviations from the standard action model, and handling ambiguous cases. The underlying probabilistic reasoning model has a major impact on the type of data it can extract, its accuracy, and the computational cost of the reasoning process. In this paper we are using Cascading Hidden Markov Models (CHMM) to analyze Bounding Overwatch, an important team action in military tactics. The team action is represented in the CHMM as a plan tree. Starting from real-world recorded data, we identify the subteams through clustering and extract team oriented discrete features. In an experimental study, we investigate whether the better scalability and the more structured information provided by the CHMM comes with an unacceptable cost in accuracy. We find the a properly parametrized CHMM estimating the current goal chain of the Bounding Overwatch plan tree comes very close to a flat HMM estimating only the overall Bounding Overwatch state (a subset of the goal chain) at a respective overall state accuracy of 95% vs 98%, making the CHMM a good candidate for deployed systems.

This paper extends the concept of trust modeling within a multi-agent environment.  Trust modeling often focuses on identifying the appropriate trust level for the other agents in the environment and then using these levels to determine how to interact with each agent.  However, this type of modeling does not account for sneaky agents who are willing to cooperate when the stakes are low and take selfish, greedy actions when the rewards rise.  Adding trust to an interactive partially observable Markov decision process (I-POMDP) allows trust levels to be continuously monitored and corrected enabling agents to make better decisions.  The addition of trust modeling increases the decision process calculations, but solves more complex trust problems that are representative of the human world.  The modified I-POMDP reward function and belief models can be used to accurately track the trust levels of agents with hidden agendas.  Testing demonstrates that agents quickly identify the hidden trust levels to mitigate the impact of a deceitful agent.

Percolation on complex networks has been used to study computer viruses, epidemics, and other casual processes. Here, we present conditions for the existence of a network specific, observation dependent, phase transition in the updated posterior of node states resulting from actively monitoring the network. Since traditional percolation thresholds are derived using observation independent Markov chains, the threshold of the posterior should more accurately model the true phase transition of a network, as the updated posterior more accurately tracks the process. These conditions should provide insight into modeling the dynamic response of the updated posterior to active intervention and control policies while monitoring large complex networks.

This paper describes a method for the automatic inference of structural transfer rules to be used in a shallow-transfer machine translation (MT) system from small parallel corpora. The structural transfer rules are based on alignment templates, like those used in statistical MT. Alignment templates are extracted from sentence-aligned parallel corpora and extended with a set of restrictions which are derived from the bilingual dictionary of the MT system and control their application as transfer rules. The experiments conducted using three different language pairs in the free/open-source MT platform Apertium show that translation quality is improved as compared to word-for-word translation (when no transfer rules are used), and that the resulting translation quality is close to that obtained using hand-coded transfer rules. The method we present is entirely unsupervised and benefits from information in the rest of modules of the MT system in which the inferred rules are applied.