Various operational control systems (OCS) are naturally modeled as Markov Decision Processes. OCS often enjoy access to predictions of future events that have substantial impact on their operations. For example, reliable forecasts of extreme weather conditions are widely available, and such events can affect typical request patterns for customer response management systems, the flight and service time of airplanes, or the supply and demand patterns for electricity. The space of exogenous events impacting OCS can be very large, prohibiting their modeling within the MDP; moreover, for many of these exogenous events there is no useful predictive, probabilistic model. Realtime predictions, however, possibly with a short lead-time, are often available. In this work we motivate a model which combines offline MDP infinite horizon planning with realtime adjustments given specific predictions of future exogenous events, and suggest a framework in which such predictions are captured and trigger real-time planning problems. We propose a number of variants of existing MDP solution algorithms, adapted to this context, and evaluate them empirically.

We focus on a class of models used for representing the dynamics between a discrete set of probabilistic events in a continuous-time setting. The proposed framework offers tractable learning and inference procedures and provides compact state representations for processes which exhibit variable delays between events. The approach is applied to a heart sound labeling task that exhibits long-range dependencies on previous events, and in which explicit modeling of the rhythm timings is justifiable by cardiological principles.

The behavior and dynamics of complex systems are in focus of many research fields. The complexity of such systems comes not only from the number of their elements, but also from the unavoidable emergence of new properties of the system, which are not just a simple summation of the properties of its elements. The behavior of complex systems can be fitted with a number of well developed models, which, however, do not incorporate the modularity and the evolution of a system simultaneously. In this work, we propose a generalized model that addresses this issue. Our model is developed within the Random Set Theory’s framework and allows for reconstructing the stochastic evolution diagrams of complex systems.

When mobile robots perform tasks in environments with humans, it seems appropriate for the robots to rely on such humans for help instead of dedicated human oracles or supervisors. However, these humans are not always available nor always accurate. In this work, we consider human help to a robot as concretely providing observations about the robot's state to reduce state uncertainty as it executes its policy autonomously. We model the probability of receiving an observation from a human in terms of their availability and accuracy by introducing Human Observation Providers POMDPs (HOP-POMDPs). We contribute an algorithm to learn human availability and accuracy online while the robot is executing its current task policy. We demonstrate that our algorithmis effective in approximating the true availability and accuracy of humans without depending on oracles to learn, thus increasing the tractability of deploying a robot that can occasionally ask for help.

Most of the previous work on brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) exploiting the P300 in electroencephalography (EEG) has focused on low-level signal processing algorithms such as feature extraction and classification methods. Although a significant improvement has been made in the past, the accuracy of detecting P300 is limited by the inherently low signal-to-noise ratio in EEGs. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to optimize the interface using partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Through experiments involving human subjects, we show the P300 speller system that is optimized using the POMDP achieves a significant performance improvement in terms of the communication bandwidth in the interaction.

One proposed approach to managing a large complex Smart Grid is through Broker Agents who buy electrical power from distributed producers, and also sell power to consumers, via a Tariff Market--a new market mechanism where Broker Agents publish concurrent bid and ask prices. A key challenge is the specification of the market strategy that the Broker Agents should use in order to earn profits while maintaining the market's balance of supply and demand. Interestingly, previous work has shown that a Broker Agent can learn its strategy, using Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and Q-learning, and outperform other Broker Agents that use predetermined or randomized strategies. In this work, we investigate the more representative scenario in which multiple Broker Agents, instead of a single one, are independently learning their strategies. Using a simulation environment based on real data, we find that Broker Agents who employ periodic increases in exploration achieve higher rewards. We also find that varying levels of market dominance in customer allocation models result in remarkably distinct outcomes in market prices and aggregate Broker Agent rewards. The latter set of results can be explained by established economic principles regarding the emergence of monopolies in market-based competition, further validating our approach.

Sustainable resource management in many domains presents large continuous stochastic optimization problems, which can often be modeled as Markov decision processes (MDPs). To solve such large MDPs, we identify and leverage linearity in state and action sets that is common in resource management. In particular, we introduce linear dynamic programs (LDPs) that generalize resource management problems and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs). We show that the LDP framework makes it possible to adapt point-based methods--the state of the art in solving POMDPs--to solving LDPs. The experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of this approach in managing the water level of a river reservoir. Finally, we discuss the relationship with dual dynamic programming, a method used to optimize hydroelectric systems.

The Green Driver app is a dynamic routing application for GPS-enabled smartphones. Green Driver combines client GPS data with real-time traffic light information provided by cities to determine optimal routes in response to driver route requests. Routes are optimized with respect to travel time, with the intention of saving the driver both time and fuel, and rerouting can occur if warranted. During a routing session, client phones communicate with a centralized server that both collects GPS data and processes route requests. All relevant data are anonymized and saved to databases for analysis; statistics are calculated from the aggregate data and fed back to the routing engine to improve future routing. Analyses can also be performed to discern driver trends: where do drivers tend to go, how long do they stay, when and where does traffic congestion occur, and so on. The system uses a number of techniques from the field of artificial intelligence. We apply a variant of A* search for solving the stochastic shortest path problem in order to find optimal driving routes through a network of roads given light-status information. We also use dynamic programming and hidden Markov models to determine the progress of a driver through a network of roads from GPS data and light-status data. The Green Driver system is currently deployed for testing in Eugene, Oregon, and is scheduled for large-scale deployment in Portland, Oregon, in Spring 2011.

Crowdsourcing platforms such as Amazon Mechanical Turk have become popular for a wide variety of human intelligence tasks; however, quality control continues to be a significant challenge. Recently, we propose TurKontrol, a theoretical model based on POMDPs to optimize iterative, crowd-sourced workflows. However, they neither describe how to learn the model parameters, nor show its effectiveness in a real crowd-sourced setting. Learning is challenging due to the scale of the model and noisy data: there are hundreds of thousands of workers with high-variance abilities. This paper presents an end-to-end system that first learns TurKontrol's POMDP parameters from real Mechanical Turk data, and then applies the model to dynamically optimize live tasks. We validate the model and use it to control a successive-improvement process on Mechanical Turk. By modeling worker accuracy and voting patterns, our system produces significantly superior artifacts compared to those generated through nonadaptive workflows using the same amount of money.

Plan recognition is a form of abductive reasoning that involves inferring plans that best explain sets of observed actions. Most existing approaches to plan recognition and other abductive tasks employ either purely logical methods that donot handle uncertainty, or purely probabilistic methods thatdo not handle structured representations. To overcome these limitations, this paper introduces an approach to abductive reasoning using a first-order probabilistic logic, specifically Markov Logic Networks (MLNs). It introduces several novel techniques for making MLNs efficient and effective for abduction. Experiments on three plan recognition datasets showthe benefit of our approach over existing methods.