Standard value function approaches to finding policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are generally considered to be intractable for large models. The intractability of these algorithms is to a large extent a consequence of computing an exact, optimal policy over the entire belief space. However, in real-world POMDP problems, computing the optimal policy for the full belief space is often unnecessary for good control even for problems with complicated policy classes. The beliefs experienced by the controller often lie near a structured, low-dimensional subspace embedded in the high-dimensional belief space. Finding a good approximation to the optimal value function for only this subspace can be much easier than computing the full value function. We introduce a new method for solving large-scale POMDPs by reducing the dimensionality of the belief space. We use Exponential family Principal Components Analysis (Collins, Dasgupta and Schapire, 2002) to represent sparse, high-dimensional belief spaces using small sets of learned features of the belief state. We then plan only in terms of the low-dimensional belief features. By planning in this low-dimensional space, we can find policies for POMDP models that are orders of magnitude larger than models that can be handled by conventional techniques. We demonstrate the use of this algorithm on a synthetic problem and on mobile robot navigation tasks.

Modelling the real world complexity of music is a challenge for machine learning. We address the task of modeling melodic sequences from the same music genre. We perform a comparative analysis of two probabilistic models; a Dirichlet Variable Length Markov Model (Dirichlet-VMM) and a Time Convolutional Restricted Boltzmann Machine (TC-RBM). We show that the TC-RBM learns descriptive music features, such as underlying chords and typical melody transitions and dynamics. We assess the models for future prediction and compare their performance to a VMM, which is the current state of the art in melody generation. We show that both models perform significantly better than the VMM, with the Dirichlet-VMM marginally outperforming the TC-RBM. Finally, we evaluate the short order statistics of the models, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence between test sequences and model samples, and show that our proposed methods match the statistics of the music genre significantly better than the VMM.

Kernel methods have long provided powerful tools for generalizing linear statistical approaches to nonlinear settings, through an embedding of the sample to a high dimensional feature space, namely a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) [18, 28]. Examples include support vector machines, kernel PCA, and kernel CCA, among others. In these cases, data are mapped via a canonical feature map to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (of high or even infinite dimension), in which the linear operations that define the algorithms are implemented. The inner product between feature mappings need never be computed explicitly, but is given by a positive definite kernel function unique to the RKHS: this permits efficient computation without the need to deal explicitly with the feature representation. The mappings of individual points to a feature space may be generalized to mappings of probability measures[e.g. 3, Chapter 4]. We call such mappings the kernel means of the underlying random variables.

Open distributed multi-agent systems are gaining interest in the academic community and in industry. In such open settings, agents are often coordinated using standardized agent conversation protocols. The representation of such protocols (for analysis, validation, monitoring, etc) is an important aspect of multi-agent applications. Recently, Petri nets have been shown to be an interesting approach to such representation, and radically different approaches using Petri nets have been proposed. However, their relative strengths and weaknesses have not been examined. Moreover, their scalability and suitability for different tasks have not been addressed. This paper addresses both these challenges. First, we analyze existing Petri net representations in terms of their scalability and appropriateness for overhearing, an important task in monitoring open multi-agent systems. Then, building on the insights gained, we introduce a novel representation using Colored Petri nets that explicitly represent legal joint conversation states and messages. This representation approach offers significant improvements in scalability and is particularly suitable for overhearing. Furthermore, we show that this new representation offers a comprehensive coverage of all conversation features of FIPA conversation standards. We also present a procedure for transforming AUML conversation protocol diagrams (a standard human-readable representation), to our Colored Petri net representation.

This paper studies the topic modeling problem of tagged documents and images. Higher-order relations among tagged documents and images are major and ubiquitous characteristics, and play positive roles in extracting reliable and interpretable topics. In this paper, we propose the tag-topic models (TTM) to depict such higher-order topic structural dependencies within the Markov random field (MRF) framework. First, we use the novel factor graph representation of latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA)-based topic models from the MRF perspective, and present an efficient loopy belief propagation (BP) algorithm for approximate inference and parameter estimation. Second, we propose the factor hypergraph representation of TTM, and focus on both pairwise and higher-order relation modeling among tagged documents and images. Efficient loopy BP algorithm is developed to learn TTM, which encourages the topic labeling smoothness among tagged documents and images. Extensive experimental results confirm the incorporation of higher-order relations to be effective in enhancing the overall topic modeling performance, when compared with current state-of-the-art topic models, in many text and image mining tasks of broad interests such as word and link prediction, document classification, and tag recommendation.

Research in reinforcement learning has produced algorithms for optimal decision making under uncertainty that fall within two main types. The first employs a Bayesian framework, where optimality improves with increased computational time. This is because the resulting planning task takes the form of a dynamic programming problem on a belief tree with an infinite number of states. The second type employs relatively simple algorithm which are shown to suffer small regret within a distribution-free framework. This paper presents a lower bound and a high probability upper bound on the optimal value function for the nodes in the Bayesian belief tree, which are analogous to similar bounds in POMDPs. The bounds are then used to create more efficient strategies for exploring the tree. The resulting algorithms are compared with the distribution-free algorithm UCB1, as well as a simpler baseline algorithm on multi-armed bandit problems.

We present a probabilistic model for natural images which is based on Gaussian scale mixtures and a simple multiscale representation. In contrast to the dominant approach to modeling whole images focusing on Markov random fields, we formulate our model in terms of a directed graphical model. We show that it is able to generate images with interesting higher-order correlations when trained on natural images or samples from an occlusion based model. More importantly, the directed model enables us to perform a principled evaluation. While it is easy to generate visually appealing images, we demonstrate that our model also yields the best performance reported to date when evaluated with respect to the cross-entropy rate, a measure tightly linked to the average log-likelihood.

We introduce the problem of reconstructing a sequence of multidimensional real vectors where some of the data are missing. This problem contains regression and mapping inversion as particular cases where the pattern of missing data is independent of the sequence index. The problem is hard because it involves possibly multivalued mappings at each vector in the sequence, where the missing variables can take more than one value given the present variables; and the set of missing variables can vary from one vector to the next. To solve this problem, we propose an algorithm based on two redundancy assumptions: vector redundancy (the data live in a low-dimensional manifold), so that the present variables constrain the missing ones; and sequence redundancy (e.g. continuity), so that consecutive vectors constrain each other. We capture the low-dimensional nature of the data in a probabilistic way with a joint density model, here the generative topographic mapping, which results in a Gaussian mixture. Candidate reconstructions at each vector are obtained as all the modes of the conditional distribution of missing variables given present variables. The reconstructed sequence is obtained by minimising a global constraint, here the sequence length, by dynamic programming. We present experimental results for a toy problem and for inverse kinematics of a robot arm.

We study an approach to policy selection for large relational Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). We consider a variant of approximate policy iteration (API) that replaces the usual value-function learning step with a learning step in policy space. This is advantageous in domains where good policies are easier to represent and learn than the corresponding value functions, which is often the case for the relational MDPs we are interested in. In order to apply API to such problems, we introduce a relational policy language and corresponding learner. In addition, we introduce a new bootstrapping routine for goal-based planning domains, based on random walks. Such bootstrapping is necessary for many large relational MDPs, where reward is extremely sparse, as API is ineffective in such domains when initialized with an uninformed policy. Our experiments show that the resulting system is able to find good policies for a number of classical planning domains and their stochastic variants by solving them as extremely large relational MDPs. The experiments also point to some limitations of our approach, suggesting future work.

We describe the version of the GPT planner used in the probabilistic track of the 4th International Planning Competition (ipc-4). This version, called mGPT, solves Markov Decision Processes specified in the ppddl language by extracting and using different classes of lower bounds along with various heuristic-search algorithms. The lower bounds are extracted from deterministic relaxations where the alternative probabilistic effects of an action are mapped into different, independent, deterministic actions. The heuristic-search algorithms use these lower bounds for focusing the updates and delivering a consistent value function over all states reachable from the initial state and the greedy policy.