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Dynamic Mechanism Design for Markets with Strategic Resources

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The assignment of tasks to multiple resources becomes an interesting game theoretic problem, when both the task owner and the resources are strategic. In the classical, nonstrategic setting, where the states of the tasks and resources are observable by the controller, this problem is that of finding an optimal policy for a Markov decision process (MDP). When the states are held by strategic agents, the problem of an efficient task allocation extends beyond that of solving an MDP and becomes that of designing a mechanism. Motivated by this fact, we propose a general mechanism which decides on an allocation rule for the tasks and resources and a payment rule to incentivize agents' participation and truthful reports. In contrast to related dynamic strategic control problems studied in recent literature, the problem studied here has interdependent values: the benefit of an allocation to the task owner is not simply a function of the characteristics of the task itself and the allocation, but also of the state of the resources. We introduce a dynamic extension of Mezzetti's two phase mechanism for interdependent valuations. In this changed setting, the proposed dynamic mechanism is efficient, within period ex-post incentive compatible, and within period ex-post individually rational.


Belief change with noisy sensing in the situation calculus

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Situation calculus has been applied widely in artificial intelligence to model and reason about actions and changes in dynamic systems. Since actions carried out by agents will cause constant changes of the agents' beliefs, how to manage these changes is a very important issue. Shapiro et al. [22] is one of the studies that considered this issue. However, in this framework, the problem of noisy sensing, which often presents in real-world applications, is not considered. As a consequence, noisy sensing actions in this framework will lead to an agent facing inconsistent situation and subsequently the agent cannot proceed further. In this paper, we investigate how noisy sensing actions can be handled in iterated belief change within the situation calculus formalism. We extend the framework proposed in [22] with the capability of managing noisy sensings. We demonstrate that an agent can still detect the actual situation when the ratio of noisy sensing actions vs. accurate sensing actions is limited. We prove that our framework subsumes the iterated belief change strategy in [22] when all sensing actions are accurate. Furthermore, we prove that our framework can adequately handle belief introspection, mistaken beliefs, belief revision and belief update even with noisy sensing, as done in [22] with accurate sensing actions only.


Suboptimality Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path Problems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider how to use the Bellman residual of the dynamic programming operator to compute suboptimality bounds for solutions to stochastic shortest path problems. Such bounds have been previously established only in the special case that "all policies are proper," in which case the dynamic programming operator is known to be a contraction, and have been shown to be easily computable only in the more limited special case of discounting. Under the condition that transition costs are positive, we show that suboptimality bounds can be easily computed even when not all policies are proper. In the general case when there are no restrictions on transition costs, the analysis is more complex. But we present preliminary results that show such bounds are possible.


Reasoning about RoboCup Soccer Narratives

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents an approach for learning to translate simple narratives, i.e., texts (sequences of sentences) describing dynamic systems, into coherent sequences of events without the need for labeled training data. Our approach incorporates domain knowledge in the form of preconditions and effects of events, and we show that it outperforms state-of-the-art supervised learning systems on the task of reconstructing RoboCup soccer games from their commentaries.


Inference in Probabilistic Logic Programs using Weighted CNF's

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Probabilistic logic programs are logic programs in which some of the facts are annotated with probabilities. Several classical probabilistic inference tasks (such as MAP and computing marginals) have not yet received a lot of attention for this formalism. The contribution of this paper is that we develop efficient inference algorithms for these tasks. This is based on a conversion of the probabilistic logic program and the query and evidence to a weighted CNF formula. This allows us to reduce the inference tasks to well-studied tasks such as weighted model counting. To solve such tasks, we employ state-of-the-art methods. We consider multiple methods for the conversion of the programs as well as for inference on the weighted CNF. The resulting approach is evaluated experimentally and shown to improve upon the state-of-the-art in probabilistic logic programming.


A temporally abstracted Viterbi algorithm

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hierarchical problem abstraction, when applicable, may offer exponential reductions in computational complexity. Previous work on coarse-to-fine dynamic programming (CFDP) has demonstrated this possibility using state abstraction to speed up the Viterbi algorithm. In this paper, we show how to apply temporal abstraction to the Viterbi problem. Our algorithm uses bounds derived from analysis of coarse timescales to prune large parts of the state trellis at finer timescales. We demonstrate improvements of several orders of magnitude over the standard Viterbi algorithm, as well as significant speedups over CFDP, for problems whose state variables evolve at widely differing rates.


Filtered Fictitious Play for Perturbed Observation Potential Games and Decentralised POMDPs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Potential games and decentralised partially observable MDPs (Dec-POMDPs) are two commonly used models of multi-agent interaction, for static optimisation and sequential decisionmaking settings, respectively. In this paper we introduce filtered fictitious play for solving repeated potential games in which each player's observations of others' actions are perturbed by random noise, and use this algorithm to construct an online learning method for solving Dec-POMDPs. Specifically, we prove that noise in observations prevents standard fictitious play from converging to Nash equilibrium in potential games, which also makes fictitious play impractical for solving Dec-POMDPs. To combat this, we derive filtered fictitious play, and provide conditions under which it converges to a Nash equilibrium in potential games with noisy observations. We then use filtered fictitious play to construct a solver for Dec-POMDPs, and demonstrate our new algorithm's performance in a box pushing problem. Our results show that we consistently outperform the state-of-the-art Dec-POMDP solver by an average of 100% across the range of noise in the observation function.


Concept Relation Discovery and Innovation Enabling Technology (CORDIET)

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Concept Relation Discovery and Innovation Enabling Technology (CORDIET), is a toolbox for gaining new knowledge from unstructured text data. At the core of CORDIET is the C-K theory which captures the essential elements of innovation. The tool uses Formal Concept Analysis (FCA), Emergent Self Organizing Maps (ESOM) and Hidden Markov Models (HMM) as main artifacts in the analysis process. The user can define temporal, text mining and compound attributes. The text mining attributes are used to analyze the unstructured text in documents, the temporal attributes use these document's timestamps for analysis. The compound attributes are XML rules based on text mining and temporal attributes. The user can cluster objects with object-cluster rules and can chop the data in pieces with segmentation rules. The artifacts are optimized for efficient data analysis; object labels in the FCA lattice and ESOM map contain an URL on which the user can click to open the selected document.


Thinking Inside the Box: A Comprehensive Spatial Representation for Video Analysis

AAAI Conferences

Successful analysis of video data requires an integration of techniques from KR, Computer Vision, and Machine Learning. Being able to detect and to track objects as well as extracting their changing spatial relations with other objects is one approach to describing and detecting events. Different kinds of spatial relations are important, including topology, direction, size, and distance between objects as well as changes of those relations over time. Typically these kinds of relations are treated separately, which makes it difficult to integrate all the extracted spatial information. We present a uniform and comprehensive spatial representation of moving objects that includes all the above spatial/temporal aspects, analyse different properties of this representation and demonstrate that it is suitable for video analysis.


Greedy Learning of Markov Network Structure

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a new yet natural algorithm for learning the graph structure of general discrete graphical models (a.k.a. Markov random fields) from samples. Our algorithm finds the neighborhood of a node by sequentially adding nodes that produce the largest reduction in empirical conditional entropy; it is greedy in the sense that the choice of addition is based only on the reduction achieved at that iteration. Its sequential nature gives it a lower computational complexity as compared to other existing comparison-based techniques, all of which involve exhaustive searches over every node set of a certain size. Our main result characterizes the sample complexity of this procedure, as a function of node degrees, graph size and girth in factor-graph representation. We subsequently specialize this result to the case of Ising models, where we provide a simple transparent characterization of sample complexity as a function of model and graph parameters. For tree graphs, our algorithm is the same as the classical Chow-Liu algorithm, and in that sense can be considered the extension of the same to graphs with cycles.