Topic models have proven to be a useful tool for discovering latent structures in document collections. However, most document collections often come as temporal streams and thus several aspects of the latent structure such as the number of topics, the topics' distribution and popularity are time-evolving. Several models exist that model the evolution of some but not all of the above aspects. In this paper we introduce infinite dynamic topic models, iDTM, that can accommodate the evolution of all the aforementioned aspects. Our model assumes that documents are organized into epochs, where the documents within each epoch are exchangeable but the order between the documents is maintained across epochs. iDTM allows for unbounded number of topics: topics can die or be born at any epoch, and the representation of each topic can evolve according to a Markovian dynamics. We use iDTM to analyze the birth and evolution of topics in the NIPS community and evaluated the efficacy of our model on both simulated and real datasets with favorable outcome.

Motivated by applications in large-scale knowledge base construction, we study the problem of scaling up a sophisticated statistical inference framework called Markov Logic Networks (MLNs). Our approach, Felix, uses the idea of Lagrangian relaxation from mathematical programming to decompose a program into smaller tasks while preserving the joint-inference property of the original MLN. The advantage is that we can use highly scalable specialized algorithms for common tasks such as classification and coreference. We propose an architecture to support Lagrangian relaxation in an RDBMS which we show enables scalable joint inference for MLNs. We empirically validate that Felix is significantly more scalable and efficient than prior approaches to MLN inference by constructing a knowledge base from 1.8M documents as part of the TAC challenge. We show that Felix scales and achieves state-of-the-art quality numbers. In contrast, prior approaches do not scale even to a subset of the corpus that is three orders of magnitude smaller.

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are a fundamental tool for data analysis and exploration. Many variants of the basic HMM have been developed in response to shortcomings in the original HMM formulation [9]. In this paper we address inference in the explicit state duration HMM (EDHMM). By state duration we mean the amount of time an HMM dwells in a state. In the standard HMM specification, a state's duration is implicit and, a priori, distributed geometrically. The EDHMM (or, equivalently, the hidden semi-Markov model [12]) was developed to allow explicit parameterization and direct inference of state duration distributions. EDHMM estimation and inference can be performed using the forward-backward algorithm; though only if the sequence is short or a tight "allowable" duration interval for each state is hard-coded a priori [13]. If the sequence is short then forward-backward can be run on a state representation that allows for all possible durations up to the observed sequence length. If the sequence is long then forward-backward only remains computationally tractable if only transitions between durations that lie within pre-specified allowable intervals are considered.

The first decade of this century has seen the nascency of the first mathematical theory of general artificial intelligence. This theory of Universal Artificial Intelligence (UAI) has made significant contributions to many theoretical, philosophical, and practical AI questions. In a series of papers culminating in book (Hutter, 2005), an exciting sound and complete mathematical model for a super intelligent agent (AIXI) has been developed and rigorously analyzed. While nowadays most AI researchers avoid discussing intelligence, the award-winning PhD thesis (Legg, 2008) provided the philosophical embedding and investigated the UAI-based universal measure of rational intelligence, which is formal, objective and non-anthropocentric. Recently, effective approximations of AIXI have been derived and experimentally investigated in JAIR paper (Veness et al. 2011). This practical breakthrough has resulted in some impressive applications, finally muting earlier critique that UAI is only a theory. For the first time, without providing any domain knowledge, the same agent is able to self-adapt to a diverse range of interactive environments. For instance, AIXI is able to learn from scratch to play TicTacToe, Pacman, Kuhn Poker, and other games by trial and error, without even providing the rules of the games. These achievements give new hope that the grand goal of Artificial General Intelligence is not elusive. This article provides an informal overview of UAI in context. It attempts to gently introduce a very theoretical, formal, and mathematical subject, and discusses philosophical and technical ingredients, traits of intelligence, some social questions, and the past and future of UAI.

Markov jump processes and continuous time Bayesian networks are important classes of continuous time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of inferring unobserved paths in these models by introducing a fast auxiliary variable Gibbs sampler. Our approach is based on the idea of uniformization, and sets up a Markov chain over paths by sampling a finite set of virtual jump times and then running a standard hidden Markov model forward filtering-backward sampling algorithm over states at the set of extant and virtual jump times. We demonstrate significant computational benefits over a state-of-the-art Gibbs sampler on a number of continuous time Bayesian networks.

Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machines (CRBMs) are rich probabilistic models that have recently been applied to a wide range of problems, including collaborative filtering, classification, and modeling motion capture data. While much progress has been made in training non-conditional RBMs, these algorithms are not applicable to conditional models and there has been almost no work on training and generating predictions from conditional RBMs for structured output problems. We first argue that standard Contrastive Divergence-based learning may not be suitable for training CRBMs. We then identify two distinct types of structured output prediction problems and propose an improved learning algorithm for each. The first problem type is one where the output space has arbitrary structure but the set of likely output configurations is relatively small, such as in multi-label classification. The second problem is one where the output space is arbitrarily structured but where the output space variability is much greater, such as in image denoising or pixel labeling. We show that the new learning algorithms can work much better than Contrastive Divergence on both types of problems.

Many real-world decision-theoretic planning problems can be naturally modeled with discrete and continuous state Markov decision processes (DC-MDPs). While previous work has addressed automated decision-theoretic planning for DCMDPs, optimal solutions have only been defined so far for limited settings, e.g., DC-MDPs having hyper-rectangular piecewise linear value functions. In this work, we extend symbolic dynamic programming (SDP) techniques to provide optimal solutions for a vastly expanded class of DCMDPs. To address the inherent combinatorial aspects of SDP, we introduce the XADD - a continuous variable extension of the algebraic decision diagram (ADD) - that maintains compact representations of the exact value function. Empirically, we demonstrate an implementation of SDP with XADDs on various DC-MDPs, showing the first optimal automated solutions to DCMDPs with linear and nonlinear piecewise partitioned value functions and showing the advantages of constraint-based pruning for XADDs.

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and conditional random fields (CRFs) are two popular techniques for modeling sequential data. Inference algorithms designed over CRFs and HMMs allow estimation of the state sequence given the observations. In several applications, estimation of the state sequence is not the end goal; instead the goal is to compute some function of it. In such scenarios, estimating the state sequence by conventional inference techniques, followed by computing the functional mapping from the estimate is not necessarily optimal. A more formal approach is to directly infer the final outcome from the observations. In particular, we consider the specific instantiation of the problem where the goal is to find the state trajectories without exact transition points and derive a novel polynomial time inference algorithm that outperforms vanilla inference techniques. We show that this particular problem arises commonly in many disparate applications and present experiments on three of them: (1) Toy robot tracking; (2) Single stroke character recognition; (3) Handwritten word recognition.

We demonstrate a limitation of discounted expected utility, a standard approach for representing the preference to risk when future cost is discounted. Specifically, we provide an example of the preference of a decision maker that appears to be rational but cannot be represented with any discounted expected utility. A straightforward modification to discounted expected utility leads to inconsistent decision making over time. We will show that an iterated risk measure can represent the preference that cannot be represented by any discounted expected utility and that the decisions based on the iterated risk measure are consistent over time.

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are widely used in modeling decision making problems in stochastic environments. However, precise specification of the reward functions in MDPs is often very difficult. Recent approaches have focused on computing an optimal policy based on the minimax regret criterion for obtaining a robust policy under uncertainty in the reward function. One of the core tasks in computing the minimax regret policy is to obtain the set of all policies that can be optimal for some candidate reward function. In this paper, we propose an efficient algorithm that exploits the geometric properties of the reward function associated with the policies. We also present an approximate version of the method for further speed up. We experimentally demonstrate that our algorithm improves the performance by orders of magnitude.