We present a novel POMDP planning algorithm called heuristic search value iteration (HSVI). HSVI is an anytime algorithm that returns a policy and a provable bound on its regret with respect to the optimal policy. HSVI gets its power by combining two well-known techniques: attention-focusing search heuristics and piecewise linear convex representations of the value function. HSVI's soundness and convergence have been proven. On some benchmark problems from the literature, HSVI displays speedups of greater than 100 with respect to other state-of-the-art POMDP value iteration algorithms. We also apply HSVI to a new rover exploration problem 10 times larger than most POMDP problems in the literature.

In this paper, we propose a new lower approximation scheme for POMDP with discounted and average cost criterion. The approximating functions are determined by their values at a finite number of belief points, and can be computed efficiently using value iteration algorithms for finite-state MDP. While for discounted problems several lower approximation schemes have been proposed earlier, ours seems the first of its kind for average cost problems. We focus primarily on the average cost case, and we show that the corresponding approximation can be computed efficiently using multi-chain algorithms for finite-state MDP. We give a preliminary analysis showing that regardless of the existence of the optimal average cost J in the POMDP, the approximation obtained is a lower bound of the liminf optimal average cost function, and can also be used to calculate an upper bound on the limsup optimal average cost function, as well as bounds on the cost of executing the stationary policy associated with the approximation. Weshow the convergence of the cost approximation, when the optimal average cost is constant and the optimal differential cost is continuous.

We introduce a probabilistic formalism subsuming Markov random fields of bounded tree width and probabilistic context free grammars. Our models are based on a representation of Boolean formulas that we call case-factor diagrams (CFDs). CFDs are similar to binary decision diagrams (BDDs) but are concise for circuits of bounded tree width (unlike BDDs) and can concisely represent the set of parse trees over a given string under a given context free grammar (also unlike BDDs). A probabilistic model consists of a CFD defining a feasible set of Boolean assignments and a weight (or cost) for each individual Boolean variable. We give an insideoutside algorithm for simultaneously computing the marginal of each Boolean variable, and a Viterbi algorithm for finding the mininum cost variable assignment. Both algorithms run in time proportional to the size of the CFD.

We present a major improvement to the incremental pruning algorithm for solving partially observable Markov decision processes. Our technique targets the cross-sum step of the dynamic programming (DP) update, a key source of complexity in POMDP algorithms. Instead of reasoning about the whole belief space when pruning the cross-sums, our algorithm divides the belief space into smaller regions and performs independent pruning in each region. We evaluate the benefits of the new technique both analytically and experimentally, and show that it produces very significant performance gains. The results contribute to the scalability of POMDP algorithms to domains that cannot be handled by the best existing techniques.

We describe an approach for exploiting structure in Markov Decision Processes with continuous state variables. At each step of the dynamic programming, the state space is dynamically partitioned into regions where the value function is the same throughout the region. We first describe the algorithm for piecewise constant representations. We then extend it to piecewise linear representations, using techniques from POMDPs to represent and reason about linear surfaces efficiently. We show that for complex, structured problems, our approach exploits the natural structure so that optimal solutions can be computed efficiently.

The formulation of our metrics is based on the notion of bisimulation for MDPs, with an aim towards solving discounted infinite horizon reinforcement learning tasks. Such metrics can be used to aggregate states, as well as to better structure other value function approximators (e.g., memory-based or nearest-neighbor approximators). We provide bounds that relate our metric distances to the optimal values of states in the given MDP.

We consider the problem of computing optimal generalised policies for relational Markov decision processes. We describe an approach combining some of the benefits of purely inductive techniques with those of symbolic dynamic programming methods. The latter reason about the optimal value function using first-order decision theoretic regression and formula rewriting, while the former, when provided with a suitable hypotheses language, are capable of generalising value functions or policies for small instances. Our idea is to use reasoning and in particular classical first-order regression to automatically generate a hypotheses language dedicated to the domain at hand, which is then used as input by an inductive solver. This approach avoids the more complex reasoning of symbolic dynamic programming while focusing the inductive solver's attention on concepts that are specifically relevant to the optimal value function for the domain considered.

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) (Baum and Eagon, 1967; Rabiner, 1989) are the workhorse statistical model for discrete time series, with widely diverse applications including automatic speech recognition, natural language processing (NLP), and genomic sequence modeling. In this model, a discrete hidden state evolves according to some Markovian dynamics, and observations at a particular time depend only on the hidden state at that time. The learning problem is to estimate the model only with observation samples from the underlying distribution. Thus far, the predominant learning algorithms have been local search heuristics, such as the Baum-Welch / EM algorithm (Baum et al., 1970; Dempster et al., 1977). It is not surprising that practical algorithms have resorted to heuristics, as the general learning problem has been shown to be hard under cryptographic assumptions (Terwijn, 2002). Fortunately, the hardness results are for HMMs that seem divorced from those that we are likely to encounter in practical applications. The situation is in many ways analogous to learning mixture distributions with samples from the underlying distribution. There, the general problem is also believed to be hard. However, much recent progress has been made when certain separation assumptions are made with respect to the component mixture distributions (e.g.

The restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) is a flexible tool for modeling complex data, however there have been significant computational difficulties in using RBMs to model high-dimensional multinomial observations. In natural language processing applications, words are naturally modeled by K-ary discrete distributions, where K is determined by the vocabulary size and can easily be in the hundreds of thousands. The conventional approach to training RBMs on word observations is limited because it requires sampling the states of K-way softmax visible units during block Gibbs updates, an operation that takes time linear in K. In this work, we address this issue by employing a more general class of Markov chain Monte Carlo operators on the visible units, yielding updates with computational complexity independent of K. We demonstrate the success of our approach by training RBMs on hundreds of millions of word n-grams using larger vocabularies than previously feasible and using the learned features to improve performance on chunking and sentiment classification tasks, achieving state-of-the-art results on the latter.

We consider the estimation of the policy gradient in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) with a special class of structured policies that are finite-state controllers. We show that the gradient estimation can be done in the Actor-Critic framework, by making the critic compute a "value" function that does not depend on the states of POMDP. This function is the conditional mean of the true value function that depends on the states. We show that the critic can be implemented using temporal difference (TD) methods with linear function approximations, and the analytical results on TD and Actor-Critic can be transfered to this case. Although Actor-Critic algorithms have been used extensively in Markov decision processes (MDP), up to now they have not been proposed for POMDP as an alternative to the earlier proposal GPOMDP algorithm, an actor-only method. Furthermore, we show that the same idea applies to semi-Markov problems with a subset of finite-state controllers.