We propose a relaxation-based approximate inference algorithm that samples near-MAP configurations of a binary pairwise Markov random field. We experiment on MAP inference tasks in several restricted Boltzmann machines. We also use our underlying sampler to estimate the log-partition function of restricted Boltzmann machines and compare against other sampling-based methods.

We propose a new method for detecting changes in Markov network structure between two sets of samples. Instead of naively fitting two Markov network models separately to the two data sets and figuring out their difference, we \emph{directly} learn the network structure change by estimating the ratio of Markov network models. This density-ratio formulation naturally allows us to introduce sparsity in the network structure change, which highly contributes to enhancing interpretability. Furthermore, computation of the normalization term, which is a critical bottleneck of the naive approach, can be remarkably mitigated. We also give the dual formulation of the optimization problem, which further reduces the computation cost for large-scale Markov networks. Through experiments, we demonstrate the usefulness of our method.

Small-variance asymptotics provide an emerging technique for obtaining scalable combinatorial algorithms from rich probabilistic models. We present a small-variance asymptotic analysis of the Hidden Markov Model and its infinite-state Bayesian nonparametric extension. Starting with the standard HMM, we first derive a “hard” inference algorithm analogous to k-means that arises when particular variances in the model tend to zero. This analysis is then extended to the Bayesian nonparametric case, yielding a simple, scalable, and flexible algorithm for discrete-state sequence data with a non-fixed number of states. We also derive the corresponding combinatorial objective functions arising from our analysis, which involve a k-means-like term along with penalties based on state transitions and the number of states. A key property of such algorithms is that — particularly in the nonparametric setting — standard probabilistic inference algorithms lack scalability and are heavily dependent on good initialization. A number of results on synthetic and real data sets demonstrate the advantages of the proposed framework.

Statistical analysis of social networks and other relational data is becoming an increasingly important problem as the scope and availability of network data increases. Network data--such as the friendships in a social network--is often dynamic in a sense that relations between entities rise and decay over time. A fundamental problem in the analysis of such dynamic network data is to extract a summary of the common structure and the dynamics of the underlying relations between entities. Accurate models of structure and dynamics of network data have many applications. They allow us to predict missing relationships [20, 21, 23], recommend potential new relations [2], identify clusters and groups of nodes [1, 29], forecast future links [4, 9, 11, 24], and even predict group growth and longevity [15]. Here we present a new approach to modeling network dynamics by considering time-evolving interactions between groups of nodes as well as the arrival and departure dynamics of individual nodes to these groups. We develop a dynamic network model, Dynamic Multi-group Membership Graph Model, that identifies the birth and death of individual groups as well as the dynamics of node joining and leaving groups in order to explain changes in the underlying network linking structure. Our nonparametric model considers an infinite number of latent groups, where each node can belong to multiple groups simultaneously. We capture the evolution of individual node group memberships via a Factorial Hidden Markov model.

Given a Markov Decision Process (MDP) with $n$ states and $m$ actions per state, we study the number of iterations needed by Policy Iteration (PI) algorithms to converge to the optimal $\gamma$-discounted optimal policy. We consider two variations of PI: Howard's PI that changes the actions in all states with a positive advantage, and Simplex-PI that only changes the action in the state with maximal advantage. We show that Howard's PI terminates after at most $ O \left( \frac{ n m}{1-\gamma} \log \left( \frac{1}{1-\gamma} \right)\right) $ iterations, improving by a factor $O(\log n)$ a result by Hansen et al. (2013), while Simplex-PI terminates after at most $ O \left( \frac{n^2 m}{1-\gamma} \log \left( \frac{1}{1-\gamma} \right)\right) $ iterations, improving by a factor $O(\log n)$ a result by Ye (2011). Under some structural assumptions of the MDP, we then consider bounds that are independent of the discount factor~$\gamma$: given a measure of the maximal transient time $\tau_t$ and the maximal time $\tau_r$ to revisit states in recurrent classes under all policies, we show that Simplex-PI terminates after at most $ \tilde O \left( n^3 m^2 \tau_t \tau_r \right) $ iterations. This generalizes a recent result for deterministic MDPs by Post & Ye (2012), in which $\tau_t \le n$ and $\tau_r \le n$. We explain why similar results seem hard to derive for Howard's PI. Finally, under the additional (restrictive) assumption that the state space is partitioned in two sets, respectively states that are transient and recurrent for all policies, we show that Simplex-PI and Howard's PI terminate after at most $ \tilde O(nm (\tau_t+\tau_r))$ iterations.

Latent variable prediction models, such as multi-layer networks, impose auxiliary latent variables between inputs and outputs to allow automatic inference of implicit features useful for prediction. Unfortunately, such models are difficult to train because inference over latent variables must be performed concurrently with parameter optimization---creating a highly non-convex problem. Instead of proposing another local training method, we develop a convex relaxation of hidden-layer conditional models that admits global training. Our approach extends current convex modeling approaches to handle two nested nonlinearities separated by a non-trivial adaptive latent layer. The resulting methods are able to acquire two-layer models that cannot be represented by any single-layer model over the same features, while improving training quality over local heuristics.

In this paper, we seek robust policies for uncertain Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Most robust optimization approaches for these problems have focussed on the computation of {\em maximin} policies which maximize the value corresponding to the worst realization of the uncertainty. Recent work has proposed {\em minimax} regret as a suitable alternative to the {\em maximin} objective for robust optimization. However, existing algorithms for handling {\em minimax} regret are restricted to models with uncertainty over rewards only. We provide algorithms that employ sampling to improve across multiple dimensions: (a) Handle uncertainties over both transition and reward models; (b) Dependence of model uncertainties across state, action pairs and decision epochs; (c) Scalability and quality bounds. Finally, to demonstrate the empirical effectiveness of our sampling approaches, we provide comparisons against benchmark algorithms on two domains from literature. We also provide a Sample Average Approximation (SAA) analysis to compute a posteriori error bounds.

This paper addresses the problem of online planning in Markov decision processes using a randomized simulator, under a budget constraint. We propose a new algorithm which is based on the construction of a forest of planning trees, where each tree corresponds to a random realization of the stochastic environment. The trees are constructed using a "safe" optimistic planning strategy combining the optimistic principle (in order to explore the most promising part of the search space first) with a safety principle (which guarantees a certain amount of uniform exploration). In the decision-making step of the algorithm, the individual trees are aggregated and an immediate action is recommended. We provide a finite-sample analysis and discuss the tradeoff between the principles of optimism and safety. We also report numerical results on a benchmark problem. Our algorithm performs as well as state-of-the-art optimistic planning algorithms, and better than a related algorithm which additionally assumes the knowledge of all transition distributions.

We consider the sensor selection problem on multivariate Gaussian distributions where only a \emph{subset} of latent variables is of inferential interest. For pairs of vertices connected by a unique path in the graph, we show that there exist decompositions of nonlocal mutual information into local information measures that can be computed efficiently from the output of message passing algorithms. We integrate these decompositions into a computationally efficient greedy selector where the computational expense of quantification can be distributed across nodes in the network. Experimental results demonstrate the comparative efficiency of our algorithms for sensor selection in high-dimensional distributions. We additionally derive an online-computable performance bound based on augmentations of the relevant latent variable set that, when such a valid augmentation exists, is applicable for \emph{any} distribution with nuisances.

Learning dynamic models from observed data has been a central issue in many scientific studies or engineering tasks. The usual setting is that data are collected sequentially from trajectories of some dynamical system operation. In quite a few modern scientific modeling tasks, however, it turns out that reliable sequential data are rather difficult to gather, whereas out-of-order snapshots are much easier to obtain. Examples include the modeling of galaxies, chronic diseases such Alzheimer's, or certain biological processes. Existing methods for learning dynamic model from non-sequence data are mostly based on Expectation-Maximization, which involves non-convex optimization and is thus hard to analyze. Inspired by recent advances in spectral learning methods, we propose to study this problem from a different perspective: moment matching and spectral decomposition. Under that framework, we identify reasonable assumptions on the generative process of non-sequence data, and propose learning algorithms based on the tensor decomposition method \cite{anandkumar2012tensor} to \textit{provably} recover first-order Markov models and hidden Markov models. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first formal guarantee on learning from non-sequence data. Preliminary simulation results confirm our theoretical findings.