We show that the usual score function for conditional Markov networks can be written as the expectation over the scores of their spanning trees. We also show that a small random sample of these output trees can attain a significant fraction of the margin obtained by the complete graph and we provide conditions under which we can perform tractable inference. The experimental results confirm that practical learning is scalable to realistic datasets using this approach.

Lifted inference algorithms for probabilistic first-order logic frameworks such as Markov logic networks (MLNs) have received significant attention in recent years. These algorithms use so called lifting rules to identify symmetries in the first-order representation and reduce the inference problem over a large probabilistic model to an inference problem over a much smaller model. In this paper, we present two new lifting rules, which enable fast MAP inference in a large class of MLNs. Our first rule uses the concept of single occurrence equivalence class of logical variables, which we define in the paper. The rule states that the MAP assignment over an MLN can be recovered from a much smaller MLN, in which each logical variable in each single occurrence equivalence class is replaced by a constant (i.e., an object in the domain of the variable). Our second rule states that we can safely remove a subset of formulas from the MLN if all equivalence classes of variables in the remaining MLN are single occurrence and all formulas in the subset are tautology (i.e., evaluate to true) at extremes (i.e., assignments with identical truth value for groundings of a predicate). We prove that our two new rules are sound and demonstrate via a detailed experimental evaluation that our approach is superior in terms of scalability and MAP solution quality to the state of the art approaches.

Any reinforcement learning algorithm that applies to all Markov decision processes (MDPs) will suffer $\Omega(\sqrt{SAT})$ regret on some MDP, where $T$ is the elapsed time and $S$ and $A$ are the cardinalities of the state and action spaces. This implies $T = \Omega(SA)$ time to guarantee a near-optimal policy. In many settings of practical interest, due to the curse of dimensionality, $S$ and $A$ can be so enormous that this learning time is unacceptable. We establish that, if the system is known to be a \emph{factored} MDP, it is possible to achieve regret that scales polynomially in the number of \emph{parameters} encoding the factored MDP, which may be exponentially smaller than $S$ or $A$. We provide two algorithms that satisfy near-optimal regret bounds in this context: posterior sampling reinforcement learning (PSRL) and an upper confidence bound algorithm (UCRL-Factored).

We introduce a novel probabilistic tracking algorithm that incorporates combinatorial data association constraints and model-based track management using variational Bayes. We use a Bethe entropy approximation to incorporate data association constraints that are often ignored in previous probabilistic tracking algorithms. Noteworthy aspects of our method include a model-based mechanism to replace heuristic logic typically used to initiate and destroy tracks, and an assignment posterior with linear computation cost in window length as opposed to the exponential scaling of previous MAP-based approaches. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on radar tracking and computer vision problems.

Training of the neural autoregressive density estimator (NADE) can be viewed as doing one step of probabilistic inference on missing values in data. We propose a new model that extends this inference scheme to multiple steps, arguing that it is easier to learn to improve a reconstruction in $k$ steps rather than to learn to reconstruct in a single inference step. The proposed model is an unsupervised building block for deep learning that combines the desirable properties of NADE and multi-predictive training: (1) Its test likelihood can be computed analytically, (2) it is easy to generate independent samples from it, and (3) it uses an inference engine that is a superset of variational inference for Boltzmann machines. The proposed NADE-k is competitive with the state-of-the-art in density estimation on the two datasets tested.

We develop a sampling technique for Hierarchical Dirichlet process models. The parallel algorithm builds upon [Chang & Fisher 2013] by proposing large split and merge moves based on learned sub-clusters. The additional global split and merge moves drastically improve convergence in the experimental results. Furthermore, we discover that cross-validation techniques do not adequately determine convergence, and that previous sampling methods converge slower than were previously expected.

We describe a framework for defining high-order image models that can be used in a variety of applications. The approach involves modeling local patterns in a multiscale representation of an image. Local properties of a coarsened image reflect non-local properties of the original image. In the case of binary images local properties are defined by the binary patterns observed over small neighborhoods around each pixel. With the multiscale representation we capture the frequency of patterns observed at different scales of resolution. This framework leads to expressive priors that depend on a relatively small number of parameters. For inference and learning we use an MCMC method for block sampling with very large blocks. We evaluate the approach with two example applications. One involves contour detection. The other involves binary segmentation.

We extend the multinomial logit model to represent some of the empirical phenomena that are frequently observed in the choices made by humans. These phenomena include the similarity effect, the attraction effect, and the compromise effect. We formally quantify the strength of these phenomena that can be represented by our choice model, which illuminates the flexibility of our choice model. We then show that our choice model can be represented as a restricted Boltzmann machine and that its parameters can be learned effectively from data. Our numerical experiments with real data of human choices suggest that we can train our choice model in such a way that it represents the typical phenomena of choice.

In recent years, the field of computational sustainability has striven to apply artificial intelligence techniques to solve ecological and environmental problems. In ecology, a key issue for the safeguarding of our planet is the monitoring of biodiversity. Automated acoustic recognition of species aims to provide a cost-effective method for biodiversity monitoring. This is particularly appealing for detecting endangered animals with a distinctive call, such as the New Forest cicada. To this end, we pursue a crowdsourcing approach, whereby the millions of visitors to the New Forest, where this insect was historically found, will help to monitor its presence by means of a smartphone app that can detect its mating call. Existing research in the field of acoustic insect detection has typically focused upon the classification of recordings collected from fixed field microphones. Such approaches segment a lengthy audio recording into individual segments of insect activity, which are independently classified using cepstral coefficients extracted from the recording as features. This paper reports on a contrasting approach, whereby we use crowdsourcing to collect recordings via a smartphone app, and present an immediate feedback to the users as to whether an insect has been found. Our classification approach does not remove silent parts of the recording via segmentation, but instead uses the temporal patterns throughout each recording to classify the insects present. We show that our approach can successfully discriminate between the call of the New Forest cicada and similar insects found in the New Forest, and is robust to common types of environment noise. A large scale trial deployment of our smartphone app collected over 6000 reports of insect activity from over 1000 users. Despite the cicada not having been rediscovered in the New Forest, the effectiveness of this approach was confirmed for both the detection algorithm, which successfully identified the same cicada through the app in countries where the same species is still present, and of the crowdsourcing methodology, which collected a vast number of recordings and involved thousands of contributors.

In this note we provide detailed derivations of two versions of small-variance asymptotics for hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) mixture models and the HDP hidden Markov model (HDP-HMM, a.k.a. the infinite HMM). We include derivations for the probabilities of certain CRP and CRF partitions, which are of more general interest.