We describe how to use robust Markov decision processes for value function approximation with state aggregation. The robustness serves to reduce the sensitivity to the approximation error of sub-optimal policies in comparison to classical methods such as fitted value iteration. This results in reducing the bounds on the gamma-discounted infinite horizon performance loss by a factor of 1/(1-gamma) while preserving polynomial-time computational complexity. Our experimental results show that using the robust representation can significantly improve the solution quality with minimal additional computational cost.

The prediction of time-changing variances is an important task in the modeling of financial data. Standard econometric models are often limited as they assume rigid functional relationships for the evolution of the variance. Moreover, functional parameters are usually learned by maximum likelihood, which can lead to overfitting. To address these problems we introduce GP-Vol, a novel non-parametric model for time-changing variances based on Gaussian Processes. This new model can capture highly flexible functional relationships for the variances. Furthermore, we introduce a new online algorithm for fast inference in GP-Vol. This method is much faster than current offline inference procedures and it avoids overfitting problems by following a fully Bayesian approach. Experiments with financial data show that GP-Vol performs significantly better than current standard alternatives.

Runge-Kutta methods are the classic family of solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the basis for the state of the art. Like most numerical methods, they return point estimates. We construct a family of probabilistic numerical methods that instead return a Gauss-Markov process defining a probability distribution over the ODE solution. In contrast to prior work, we construct this family such that posterior means match the outputs of the Runge-Kutta family exactly, thus inheriting their proven good properties. Remaining degrees of freedom not identified by the match to Runge-Kutta are chosen such that the posterior probability measure fits the observed structure of the ODE. Our results shed light on the structure of Runge-Kutta solvers from a new direction, provide a richer, probabilistic output, have low computational cost, and raise new research questions.

Neural population activity in cortical circuits is not solely driven by external inputs, but is also modulated by endogenous states which vary on multiple time-scales. To understand information processing in cortical circuits, we need to understand the statistical structure of internal states and their interaction with sensory inputs. Here, we present a statistical model for extracting hierarchically organised neural population states from multi-channel recordings of neural spiking activity. Population states are modelled using a hidden Markov decision tree with state-dependent tuning parameters and a generalised linear observation model. We present a variational Bayesian inference algorithm for estimating the posterior distribution over parameters from neural population recordings. On simulated data, we show that we can identify the underlying sequence of population states and reconstruct the ground truth parameters. Using population recordings from visual cortex, we find that a model with two levels of population states outperforms both a one-state and a two-state generalised linear model. Finally, we find that modelling of state-dependence also improves the accuracy with which sensory stimuli can be decoded from the population response.

We consider the problem of online planning in a Markov decision process with discounted rewards for any given initial state. We consider the PAC sample complexity problem of computing, with probability $1-\delta$, an $\epsilon$-optimal action using the smallest possible number of calls to the generative model (which provides reward and next-state samples). We design an algorithm, called StOP (for Stochastic-Optimistic Planning), based on the optimism in the face of uncertainty" principle. StOP can be used in the general setting, requires only a generative model, and enjoys a complexity bound that only depends on the local structure of the MDP."

Variational inference algorithms have proven successful for Bayesian analysis in large data settings, with recent advances using stochastic variational inference (SVI). However, such methods have largely been studied in independent or exchangeable data settings. We develop an SVI algorithm to learn the parameters of hidden Markov models (HMMs) in a time-dependent data setting. The challenge in applying stochastic optimization in this setting arises from dependencies in the chain, which must be broken to consider minibatches of observations. We propose an algorithm that harnesses the memory decay of the chain to adaptively bound errors arising from edge effects. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm on synthetic experiments and a large genomics dataset where a batch algorithm is computationally infeasible.

We introduce a new sequential Monte Carlo algorithm we call the particle cascade. The particle cascade is an asynchronous, anytime alternative to traditional sequential Monte Carlo algorithms that is amenable to parallel and distributed implementations. It uses no barrier synchronizations which leads to improved particle throughput and memory efficiency. It is an anytime algorithm in the sense that it can be run forever to emit an unbounded number of particles while keeping within a fixed memory budget. We prove that the particle cascade provides an unbiased marginal likelihood estimator which can be straightforwardly plugged into existing pseudo-marginal methods.

The combination of modern Reinforcement Learning and Deep Learning approaches holds the promise of making significant progress on challenging applications requiring both rich perception and policy-selection. The Arcade Learning Environment (ALE) provides a set of Atari games that represent a useful benchmark set of such applications. A recent breakthrough in combining model-free reinforcement learning with deep learning, called DQN, achieves the best real-time agents thus far. Planning-based approaches achieve far higher scores than the best model-free approaches, but they exploit information that is not available to human players, and they are orders of magnitude slower than needed for real-time play. Our main goal in this work is to build a better real-time Atari game playing agent than DQN. The central idea is to use the slow planning-based agents to provide training data for a deep-learning architecture capable of real-time play. We proposed new agents based on this idea and show that they outperform DQN.

We introduce a framework for unsupervised learning of structured predictors with overlapping, global features. Each input's latent representation is predicted conditional on the observed data using a feature-rich conditional random field (CRF). Then a reconstruction of the input is (re)generated, conditional on the latent structure, using a generative model which factorizes similarly to the CRF. The autoencoder formulation enables efficient exact inference without resorting to unrealistic independence assumptions or restricting the kinds of features that can be used. We illustrate insightful connections to traditional autoencoders, posterior regularization and multi-view learning. Finally, we show competitive results with instantiations of the framework for two canonical tasks in natural language processing: part-of-speech induction and bitext word alignment, and show that training our model can be substantially more efficient than comparable feature-rich baselines.

In this paper, we present a new approach for lifted MAP inference in Markov logic networks (MLNs). The key idea in our approach is to compactly encode the MAP inference problem as an Integer Polynomial Program (IPP) by schematically applying three lifted inference steps to the MLN: lifted decomposition, lifted conditioning, and partial grounding. Our IPP encoding is lifted in the sense that an integer assignment to a variable in the IPP may represent a truth-assignment to multiple indistinguishable ground atoms in the MLN. We show how to solve the IPP by first converting it to an Integer Linear Program (ILP) and then solving the latter using state-of-the-art ILP techniques. Experiments on several benchmark MLNs show that our new algorithm is substantially superior to ground inference and existing methods in terms of computational efficiency and solution quality.