Critically ill patients in regular wards are vulnerable to unanticipated clinical dete- rioration which requires timely transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU). To allow for risk scoring and patient monitoring in such a setting, we develop a novel Semi- Markov Switching Linear Gaussian Model (SSLGM) for the inpatients' physiol- ogy. The model captures the patients' latent clinical states and their corresponding observable lab tests and vital signs. We present an efficient unsupervised learn- ing algorithm that capitalizes on the informatively censored data in the electronic health records (EHR) to learn the parameters of the SSLGM; the learned model is then used to assess the new inpatients' risk for clinical deterioration in an online fashion, allowing for timely ICU admission. Experiments conducted on a het- erogeneous cohort of 6,094 patients admitted to a large academic medical center show that the proposed model significantly outperforms the currently deployed risk scores such as Rothman index, MEWS, SOFA and APACHE.

In classical reinforcement learning, when exploring an environment, agents accept arbitrary short term loss for long term gain. This is infeasible for safety critical applications, such as robotics, where even a single unsafe action may cause system failure. In this paper, we address the problem of safely exploring finite Markov decision processes (MDP). We define safety in terms of an, a priori unknown, safety constraint that depends on states and actions. We aim to explore the MDP under this constraint, assuming that the unknown function satisfies regularity conditions expressed via a Gaussian process prior. We develop a novel algorithm for this task and prove that it is able to completely explore the safely reachable part of the MDP without violating the safety constraint. To achieve this, it cautiously explores safe states and actions in order to gain statistical confidence about the safety of unvisited state-action pairs from noisy observations collected while navigating the environment. Moreover, the algorithm explicitly considers reachability when exploring the MDP, ensuring that it does not get stuck in any state with no safe way out. We demonstrate our method on digital terrain models for the task of exploring an unknown map with a rover.

Developed back in the 50s by Rosenblatt and colleagues, this extremely simple algorithm can be viewed as the foundation for some of the most successful classifiers today, including suport vector machines and logistic regression, solved using stochastic gradient descent. The convergence proof for the Perceptron algorithm is one of the most elegant pieces of math I've seen in ML. Most useful: Boosting, especially boosted decision trees. This intuitive approach allows you to build highly accurate ML models, by combining many simple ones. Boosting is one of the most practical methods in ML, it's widely used in industry, can handle a wide variety of data types, and can be implemented at scale.

Quantum annealing (QA) is a hardware-based heuristic optimization and sampling method applicable to discrete undirected graphical models. While similar to simulated annealing, QA relies on quantum, rather than thermal, effects to explore complex search spaces. For many classes of problems, QA is known to offer computational advantages over simulated annealing. Here we report on the ability of recent QA hardware to accelerate training of fully visible Boltzmann machines. We characterize the sampling distribution of QA hardware, and show that in many cases, the quantum distributions differ significantly from classical Boltzmann distributions. In spite of this difference, training (which seeks to match data and model statistics) using standard classical gradient updates is still effective. We investigate the use of QA for seeding Markov chains as an alternative to contrastive divergence (CD) and persistent contrastive divergence (PCD). Using $k=50$ Gibbs steps, we show that for problems with high-energy barriers between modes, QA-based seeds can improve upon chains with CD and PCD initializations. For these hard problems, QA gradient estimates are more accurate, and allow for faster learning. Furthermore, and interestingly, even the case of raw QA samples (that is, $k=0$) achieved similar improvements. We argue that this relates to the fact that we are training a quantum rather than classical Boltzmann distribution in this case. The learned parameters give rise to hardware QA distributions closely approximating classical Boltzmann distributions that are hard to train with CD/PCD.

Recent sequential pattern mining methods have used the minimum description length (MDL) principle to define an encoding scheme which describes an algorithm for mining the most compressing patterns in a database. We present a novel subsequence interleaving model based on a probabilistic model of the sequence database, which allows us to search for the most compressing set of patterns without designing a specific encoding scheme. Our proposed algorithm is able to efficiently mine the most relevant sequential patterns and rank them using an associated measure of interestingness. The efficient inference in our model is a direct result of our use of a structural expectation-maximization framework, in which the expectation-step takes the form of a submodular optimization problem subject to a coverage constraint. We show on both synthetic and real world datasets that our model mines a set of sequential patterns with low spuriousness and redundancy, high interpretability and usefulness in real-world applications. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the quality of the patterns from our approach is comparable to, if not better than, existing state of the art sequential pattern mining algorithms.

Deep reinforcement learning (deep RL) has been successful in learning sophisticated behaviors automatically; however, the learning process requires a huge number of trials. In contrast, animals can learn new tasks in just a few trials, benefiting from their prior knowledge about the world. This paper seeks to bridge this gap. Rather than designing a "fast" reinforcement learning algorithm, we propose to represent it as a recurrent neural network (RNN) and learn it from data. In our proposed method, RL$^2$, the algorithm is encoded in the weights of the RNN, which are learned slowly through a general-purpose ("slow") RL algorithm. The RNN receives all information a typical RL algorithm would receive, including observations, actions, rewards, and termination flags; and it retains its state across episodes in a given Markov Decision Process (MDP). The activations of the RNN store the state of the "fast" RL algorithm on the current (previously unseen) MDP. We evaluate RL$^2$ experimentally on both small-scale and large-scale problems. On the small-scale side, we train it to solve randomly generated multi-arm bandit problems and finite MDPs. After RL$^2$ is trained, its performance on new MDPs is close to human-designed algorithms with optimality guarantees. On the large-scale side, we test RL$^2$ on a vision-based navigation task and show that it scales up to high-dimensional problems.

We develop correlated random measures, random measures where the atom weights can exhibit a flexible pattern of dependence, and use them to develop powerful hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models. Hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models are usually built from completely random measures, a Poisson-process based construction in which the atom weights are independent. Completely random measures imply strong independence assumptions in the corresponding hierarchical model, and these assumptions are often misplaced in real-world settings. Correlated random measures address this limitation. They model correlation within the measure by using a Gaussian process in concert with the Poisson process. With correlated random measures, for example, we can develop a latent feature model for which we can infer both the properties of the latent features and their dependency pattern. We develop several other examples as well. We study a correlated random measure model of pairwise count data. We derive an efficient variational inference algorithm and show improved predictive performance on large data sets of documents, web clicks, and electronic health records.

Detecting and classifying targets in video streams from surveillance cameras is a cumbersome, error-prone and expensive task. Often, the incurred costs are prohibitive for real-time monitoring. This leads to data being stored locally or transmitted to a central storage site for post-incident examination. The required communication links and archiving of the video data are still expensive and this setup excludes preemptive actions to respond to imminent threats. An effective way to overcome these limitations is to build a smart camera that transmits alerts when relevant video sequences are detected. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have come to outperform humans in visual classifications tasks. The concept of DNNs and Convolutional Networks (ConvNets) can easily be extended to make use of higher-dimensional input data such as multispectral data. We explore this opportunity in terms of achievable accuracy and required computational effort. To analyze the precision of DNNs for scene labeling in an urban surveillance scenario we have created a dataset with 8 classes obtained in a field experiment. We combine an RGB camera with a 25-channel VIS-NIR snapshot sensor to assess the potential of multispectral image data for target classification. We evaluate several new DNNs, showing that the spectral information fused together with the RGB frames can be used to improve the accuracy of the system or to achieve similar accuracy with a 3x smaller computation effort. We achieve a very high per-pixel accuracy of 99.1%. Even for scarcely occurring, but particularly interesting classes, such as cars, 75% of the pixels are labeled correctly with errors occurring only around the border of the objects. This high accuracy was obtained with a training set of only 30 labeled images, paving the way for fast adaptation to various application scenarios.

Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the availability of large-scale data from social networks and sensor networks offers an unprecedented opportunity to predict state-changing events at the individual level. Examples of such events include disease transmission, opinion transition in elections, and rumor propagation. Unlike previous research focusing on the collective effects of social systems, this study makes efficient inferences at the individual level. In order to cope with dynamic interactions among a large number of individuals, we introduce the stochastic kinetic model to capture adaptive transition probabilities and propose an efficient variational inference algorithm the complexity of which grows linearly --- rather than exponentially --- with the number of individuals. To validate this method, we have performed epidemic-dynamics experiments on wireless sensor network data collected from more than ten thousand people over three years. The proposed algorithm was used to track disease transmission and predict the probability of infection for each individual. Our results demonstrate that this method is more efficient than sampling while nonetheless achieving high accuracy.

I have a little secret: I don't like the terminology, notation, and style of writing in statistics. I find it unnecessarily complicated. This shows up when trying to read about Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Take, for example, the abstract to the Markov Chain Monte Carlo article in the Encyclopedia of Biostatistics. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a technique for estimating by simulation the expectation of a statistic in a complex model. Successive random selections form a Markov chain, the stationary distribution of which is the target distribution. It is particularly useful for the evaluation of posterior distributions in complex Bayesian models. In the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, items are selected from an arbitrary "proposal" distribution and are retained or not according to an acceptance rule. The Gibbs sampler is a special case in which the proposal distributions are conditional distributions of single components of a vector parameter. Various special cases and applications are considered. I can only vaguely understand what the author is saying here (and really only because I know ahead of time what MCMC is). There are certainly references to more advanced things than what I'm going to cover in this post.