Many problems in machine learning are naturally expressed in the language of undirected graphical models. Here, we propose black-box learning and inference algorithms for undirected models that optimize a variational approximation to the log-likelihood of the model. Central to our approach is an upper bound on the log-partition function parametrized by a function q that we express as a flexible neural network. Our bound makes it possible to track the partition function during learning, to speed-up sampling, and to train a broad class of hybrid directed/undirected models via a unified variational inference framework. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on several popular generative modeling datasets.

A fundamental challenge in developing high-impact machine learning technologies is balancing the need to model rich, structured domains with the ability to scale to big data. Many important problem areas are both richly structured and large scale, from social and biological networks, to knowledge graphs and the Web, to images, video, and natural language. In this paper, we introduce two new formalisms for modeling structured data, and show that they can both capture rich structure and scale to big data. The first, hinge-loss Markov random fields (HL-MRFs), is a new kind of probabilistic graphical model that generalizes different approaches to convex inference. We unite three approaches from the randomized algorithms, probabilistic graphical models, and fuzzy logic communities, showing that all three lead to the same inference objective. We then define HL-MRFs by generalizing this unified objective. The second new formalism, probabilistic soft logic (PSL), is a probabilistic programming language that makes HL-MRFs easy to define using a syntax based on first-order logic. We introduce an algorithm for inferring most-probable variable assignments (MAP inference) that is much more scalable than general-purpose convex optimization methods, because it uses message passing to take advantage of sparse dependency structures. We then show how to learn the parameters of HL-MRFs. The learned HL-MRFs are as accurate as analogous discrete models, but much more scalable. Together, these algorithms enable HL-MRFs and PSL to model rich, structured data at scales not previously possible.

We consider a reinforcement learning (RL) setting in which the agent interacts with a sequence of episodic MDPs. At the start of each episode the agent has access to some side-information or context that determines the dynamics of the MDP for that episode. Our setting is motivated by applications in healthcare where baseline measurements of a patient at the start of a treatment episode form the context that may provide information about how the patient might respond to treatment decisions. We propose algorithms for learning in such Contextual Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs) under an assumption that the unobserved MDP parameters vary smoothly with the observed context. We also give lower and upper PAC bounds under the smoothness assumption. Because our lower bound has an exponential dependence on the dimension, we consider a tractable linear setting where the context is used to create linear combinations of a finite set of MDPs. For the linear setting, we give a PAC learning algorithm based on KWIK learning techniques.

Many modern unsupervised or semi-supervised machine learning algorithms rely on Bayesian probabilistic models. These models are usually intractable and thus require approximate inference. Variational inference (VI) lets us approximate a high-dimensional Bayesian posterior with a simpler variational distribution by solving an optimization problem. This approach has been successfully used in various models and large-scale applications. In this review, we give an overview of recent trends in variational inference. We first introduce standard mean field variational inference, then review recent advances focusing on the following aspects: (a) scalable VI, which includes stochastic approximations, (b) generic VI, which extends the applicability of VI to a large class of otherwise intractable models, such as non-conjugate models, (c) accurate VI, which includes variational models beyond the mean field approximation or with atypical divergences, and (d) amortized VI, which implements the inference over local latent variables with inference networks. Finally, we provide a summary of promising future research directions.

As technology becomes more advanced, those who design, use and are otherwise affected by it want to know that it will perform correctly, and understand why it does what it does, and how to use it appropriately. In essence they want to be able to trust the systems that are being designed. In this survey we present assurances that are the method by which users can understand how to trust autonomous systems. Trust between humans and autonomy is reviewed, and the implications for the design of assurances are highlighted. A survey of existing research related to assurances is presented. Much of the surveyed research originates from fields such as interpretable, comprehensible, transparent, and explainable machine learning, as well as human-computer interaction, human-robot interaction, and e-commerce. Several key ideas are extracted from this work in order to refine the definition of assurances. The design of assurances is found to be highly dependent not only on the capabilities of the autonomous system, but on the characteristics of the human user, and the appropriate trust-related behaviors. Several directions for future research are identified and discussed.

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) is a nonparametric inference method, which iteratively transports a set of randomly initialized particles to approximate a differentiable target distribution, along the direction that maximally decreases the KL divergence within a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Compared to Monte Carlo methods, SVGD is particle-efficient because of the repulsive force induced by kernels. In this paper, we develop the first analysis about the high dimensional performance of SVGD and emonstrate that the repulsive force drops at least polynomially with increasing dimensions, which results in poor marginal approximation. To improve the marginal inference of SVGD, we propose Marginal SVGD (M-SVGD), which incorporates structural information described by a Markov random field (MRF) into kernels. M-SVGD inherits the particle efficiency of SVGD and can be used as a general purpose marginal inference tool for MRFs. Experimental results on grid based Markov random fields show the effectiveness of our methods.

We search for digital biomarkers from Parkinson's Disease by observing approximate repetitive patterns matching hypothesized step and stride periodic cycles. These observations were modeled as a cycle of hidden states with randomness allowing deviation from a canonical pattern of transitions and emissions, under the hypothesis that the averaged features of hidden states would serve to informatively characterize classes of patients/controls. We propose a Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM), a latent-state model, emitting 3D-acceleration vectors. Transitions and emissions are inferred from data. We fit separate models per unique device and training label. Hidden Markov Models (HMM) force geometric distributions of the duration spent at each state before transition to a new state. Instead, our HSMM allows us to specify the distribution of state duration. This modified version is more effective because we are interested more in each state's duration than the sequence of distinct states, allowing inclusion of these durations the feature vector.

Many efforts have been made to use various forms of domain knowledge in malware detection. Currently there exist two common approaches to malware detection without domain knowledge, namely byte n-grams and strings. In this work we explore the feasibility of applying neural networks to malware detection and feature learning. We do this by restricting ourselves to a minimal amount of domain knowledge in order to extract a portion of the Portable Executable (PE) header. By doing this we show that neural networks can learn from raw bytes without explicit feature construction, and perform even better than a domain knowledge approach that parses the PE header into explicit features.

Predicting the completion time of business process instances would be a very helpful aid when managing processes under service level agreement constraints. The ability to know in advance the trend of running process instances would allow business managers to react in time, in order to prevent delays or undesirable situations. However, making such accurate forecasts is not easy: many factors may influence the required time to complete a process instance. In this paper, we propose an approach based on deep Recurrent Neural Networks (specifically LSTMs) that is able to exploit arbitrary information associated to single events, in order to produce an as-accurate-as-possible prediction of the completion time of running instances. Experiments on real-world datasets confirm the quality of our proposal.

We consider the problem of predicting the next observation given a sequence of past observations, and consider the extent to which accurate prediction requires complex algorithms that explicitly leverage long-range dependencies. Perhaps surprisingly, our positive results show that for a broad class of sequences, there is an algorithm that predicts well on average, and bases its predictions only on the most recent few observation together with a set of simple summary statistics of the past observations. Specifically, we show that for any distribution over observations, if the mutual information between past observations and future observations is upper bounded by $I$, then a simple Markov model over the most recent $I/\epsilon$ observations obtains expected KL error $\epsilon$---and hence $\ell_1$ error $\sqrt{\epsilon}$---with respect to the optimal predictor that has access to the entire past and knows the data generating distribution. For a Hidden Markov Model with $n$ hidden states, $I$ is bounded by $\log n$, a quantity that does not depend on the mixing time, and we show that the trivial prediction algorithm based on the empirical frequencies of length $O(\log n/\epsilon)$ windows of observations achieves this error, provided the length of the sequence is $d^{\Omega(\log n/\epsilon)}$, where $d$ is the size of the observation alphabet. We also establish that this result cannot be improved upon, even for the class of HMMs, in the following two senses: First, for HMMs with $n$ hidden states, a window length of $\log n/\epsilon$ is information-theoretically necessary to achieve expected $\ell_1$ error $\sqrt{\epsilon}$. Second, the $d^{\Theta(\log n/\epsilon)}$ samples required to estimate the Markov model for an observation alphabet of size $d$ is necessary for any computationally tractable learning algorithm, assuming the hardness of strongly refuting a certain class of CSPs.