We present a data-efficient reinforcement learning method for continuous state-action systems under significant observation noise. Data-efficient solutions under small noise exist, such as PILCO which learns the cartpole swing-up task in 30s. PILCO evaluates policies by planning state-trajectories using a dynamics model. However, PILCO applies policies to the observed state, therefore planning in observation space. We extend PILCO with filtering to instead plan in belief space, consistent with partially observable Markov decisions process (POMDP) planning. This enables data-efficient learning under significant observation noise, outperforming more naive methods such as post-hoc application of a filter to policies optimised by the original (unfiltered) PILCO algorithm. We test our method on the cartpole swing-up task, which involves nonlinear dynamics and requires nonlinear control.

Technological breakthroughs allow us to collect data with increasing spatio-temporal resolution from complex interaction systems. The combination of high-resolution observations, expressive dynamic models, and efficient machine learning algorithms can lead to crucial insights into complex interaction dynamics and the functions of these systems. In this paper, we formulate the dynamics of a complex interacting network as a stochastic process driven by a sequence of events, and develop expectation propagation algorithms to make inferences from noisy observations. To avoid getting stuck at a local optimum, we formulate the problem of minimizing Bethe free energy as a constrained primal problem and take advantage of the concavity of dual problem in the feasible domain of dual variables guaranteed by duality theorem. Our expectation propagation algorithms demonstrate better performance in inferring the interaction dynamics in complex transportation networks than competing models such as particle filter, extended Kalman filter, and deep neural networks.

We present a new algorithmic approach for the task of finding a chordal Markov network structure that maximizes a given scoring function. The algorithm is based on branch and bound and integrates dynamic programming for both domain pruning and for obtaining strong bounds for search-space pruning. Empirically, we show that the approach dominates in terms of running times a recent integer programming approach (and thereby also a recent constraint optimization approach) for the problem.

The marginal likelihood, or model evidence, is a key quantity in Bayesian parameter estimation and model comparison. For many probabilistic models, computation of the marginal likelihood is challenging, because it involves a sum or integral over an enormous parameter space. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful approach to compute marginal likelihoods. Various MCMC algorithms and evidence estimators have been proposed in the literature. Here we discuss the use of nonequilibrium techniques for estimating the marginal likelihood. Nonequilibrium estimators build on recent developments in statistical physics and are known as annealed importance sampling (AIS) and reverse AIS in probabilistic machine learning. We introduce estimators for the model evidence that combine forward and backward simulations and show for various challenging models that the evidence estimators outperform forward and reverse AIS.

We consider the problem of learning an unknown Markov Decision Process (MDP) that is weakly communicating in the infinite horizon setting. We propose a Thompson Sampling-based reinforcement learning algorithm with dynamic episodes (TSDE). At the beginning of each episode, the algorithm generates a sample from the posterior distribution over the unknown model parameters. It then follows the optimal stationary policy for the sampled model for the rest of the episode. The duration of each episode is dynamically determined by two stopping criteria. The first stopping criterion controls the growth rate of episode length. The second stopping criterion happens when the number of visits to any state-action pair is doubled. We establish $\tilde O(HS\sqrt{AT})$ bounds on expected regret under a Bayesian setting, where $S$ and $A$ are the sizes of the state and action spaces, $T$ is time, and $H$ is the bound of the span. This regret bound matches the best available bound for weakly communicating MDPs. Numerical results show it to perform better than existing algorithms for infinite horizon MDPs.

Screening is important for the diagnosis and treatment of a wide variety of diseases. A good screening policy should be personalized to the disease, to the features of the patient and to the dynamic history of the patient (including the history of screening). The growth of electronic health records data has led to the development of many models to predict the onset and progression of different diseases. However, there has been limited work to address the personalized screening for these different diseases. In this work, we develop the first framework to construct screening policies for a large class of disease models. The disease is modeled as a finite state stochastic process with an absorbing disease state. The patient observes an external information process (for instance, self-examinations, discovering comorbidities, etc.) which can trigger the patient to arrive at the clinician earlier than scheduled screenings. The clinician carries out the tests; based on the test results and the external information it schedules the next arrival. Computing the exactly optimal screening policy that balances the delay in the detection against the frequency of screenings is computationally intractable; this paper provides a computationally tractable construction of an approximately optimal policy. As an illustration, we make use of a large breast cancer data set. The constructed policy screens patients more or less often according to their initial risk -- it is personalized to the features of the patient -- and according to the results of previous screens – it is personalized to the history of the patient. In comparison with existing clinical policies, the constructed policy leads to large reductions (28-68 %) in the number of screens performed while achieving the same expected delays in disease detection.

We present an algorithm based on posterior sampling (aka Thompson sampling) that achieves near-optimal worst-case regret bounds when the underlying Markov Decision Process (MDP) is communicating with a finite, though unknown, diameter. Our main result is a high probability regret upper bound of $\tilde{O}(D\sqrt{SAT})$ for any communicating MDP with $S$ states, $A$ actions and diameter $D$, when $T\ge S^5A$. Here, regret compares the total reward achieved by the algorithm to the total expected reward of an optimal infinite-horizon undiscounted average reward policy, in time horizon $T$. This result improves over the best previously known upper bound of $\tilde{O}(DS\sqrt{AT})$ achieved by any algorithm in this setting, and matches the dependence on $S$ in the established lower bound of $\Omega(\sqrt{DSAT})$ for this problem. Our techniques involve proving some novel results about the anti-concentration of Dirichlet distribution, which may be of independent interest.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are a vital modeling technique that rely on internal states learned indirectly by optimization of a supervised, unsupervised, or reinforcement training loss. RNNs are used to model dynamic processes that are characterized by underlying latent states whose form is often unknown, precluding its analytic representation inside an RNN. In the Predictive-State Representation (PSR) literature, latent state processes are modeled by an internal state representation that directly models the distribution of future observations, and most recent work in this area has relied on explicitly representing and targeting sufficient statistics of this probability distribution. We seek to combine the advantages of RNNs and PSRs by augmenting existing state-of-the-art recurrent neural networks with Predictive-State Decoders (PSDs), which add supervision to the network's internal state representation to target predicting future observations. PSDs are simple to implement and easily incorporated into existing training pipelines via additional loss regularization. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PSDs with experimental results in three different domains: probabilistic filtering, Imitation Learning, and Reinforcement Learning. In each, our method improves statistical performance of state-of-the-art recurrent baselines and does so with fewer iterations and less data.

Subset selection, which is the task of finding a small subset of representative items from a large ground set, finds numerous applications in different areas. Sequential data, including time-series and ordered data, contain important structural relationships among items, imposed by underlying dynamic models of data, that should play a vital role in the selection of representatives. However, nearly all existing subset selection techniques ignore underlying dynamics of data and treat items independently, leading to incompatible sets of representatives. In this paper, we develop a new framework for sequential subset selection that finds a set of representatives compatible with the dynamic models of data. To do so, we equip items with transition dynamic models and pose the problem as an integer binary optimization over assignments of sequential items to representatives, that leads to high encoding, diversity and transition potentials. Our formulation generalizes the well-known facility location objective to deal with sequential data, incorporating transition dynamics among facilities. As the proposed formulation is non-convex, we derive a max-sum message passing algorithm to solve the problem efficiently. Experiments on synthetic and real data, including instructional video summarization, show that our sequential subset selection framework not only achieves better encoding and diversity than the state of the art, but also successfully incorporates dynamics of data, leading to compatible representatives.

We discover a screening rule for l1-regularized Ising model estimation. The simple closed-form screening rule is a necessary and sufficient condition for exactly recovering the blockwise structure of a solution under any given regularization parameters. With enough sparsity, the screening rule can be combined with various optimization procedures to deliver solutions efficiently in practice. The screening rule is especially suitable for large-scale exploratory data analysis, where the number of variables in the dataset can be thousands while we are only interested in the relationship among a handful of variables within moderate-size clusters for interpretability. Experimental results on various datasets demonstrate the efficiency and insights gained from the introduction of the screening rule.